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January 03, 2008

Comments

You would rather see Romney as a GOP candidate in the general election than McCain? On what grounds other than the advantage given to the eventual Dem candidate?

I don't fear McCain, and here's why:

(1) Been there, done that. McCain has been an also-ran -- how many times? Too many people have passed him by too many times. I don't see anyone, including his supporters (and especially independents), getting fever over him like they did in his past campaigns.

(2) Age. It's getting some minor play now, but if he becomes the nominee, the story will be amplified.

(3) Agent of change? Polls show that even the majority of Republican voters want some kind of change. McCain does not represent that. And to the extent that his policies differ from Bush, he leans more to the left (i.e., amnesty for illegal aliens). That will alienate a lot of the GOP.

(4) Not a great debater Imagine McCain debating any of the three top Democrat contenders. 'Nuff said.

(5) What's his base? Social conservatives? I think not. Fiscal conservatives? Luke warm at best. No, McCain's strength -- if any -- is with neo-cons and Iraq war supporters. And there aren't enough of them left to propel him above any of the Democratic frontrunners.

(6) He's too nice. Something tells me that McCain won't allow swiftboating in the general election. So he can't even win by underhanded tactics.

This is just a quick off-the-top-of-the-head list, but there it is.

On what grounds other than the advantage given to the eventual Dem candidate?

Those are the most important grounds at stake in this election.

"McCain, by contrast, not only enjoys broad appeal among many (often uninformed) Democrats,"

I'll take your word for that, but what's the advantage to having broad appeal among people who are going to vote for your opponent regardless of what you do? The Democratic nomination being contested this year, he can't even count on significant numbers of crossover votes in the primaries.

And being the press's darling only helps a Republican until they've got the nomination secured, because the press will always ditch a likable Republican in favor of a Democrat come the general election.

BTW, everybody of both parties should fear McCain; There are a lot of candidates who don't like the First amendment, but McCain is the only one I know of who's willing to publicly state that he's against it.

Posting note: Won't be often for a while: Compression fracture of a vertebra sledding. Gotta try remembering I'm not 16 anymore...

"because the press will always ditch a likable Republican in favor of a Democrat come the general election."

Interesting comment since that isn't what happened the last two elections.

Sorry to hear about the accident. Believe me, I can relate.

And, heck, I'm not even 50 anymore.

Owwwww........really sorry to hear that, Brett. Swift healing....

Brett: Compression fracture of a vertebra sledding.

Ouch. Best wishes for your recovery.

Incidentally - I don't know if this will help with your specific back injury, though - I've found the "kneeling chairs" that you can buy relatively cheaply from some office supply catalogues extremely good for not putting strain/stress on my back, which occasionally bugs me from an ancient sports injury caused by forgetting I wasn't 30 any more. :-(

I'm sure the earth-tones-wearing arrogant serial exaggerator and the elitist fake war hero flip-flopper would be surprised to hear the press was on their side, Brett. Perhaps a visit to the Daily Howler archives could refresh your memory.

Sorry to hear about your injury.

"There are a lot of candidates who don't like the First amendment, but McCain is the only one I know of who's willing to publicly state that he's against it."

I have no problem with your objecting to McCain's stances, nor with you characterizing McCain's stance as, in your view, amounting to that, but I'm reasonably sure that McCain has never directly said something along the lines of "I'm against the First Amendment."

If you'd supply the quote and source you have in mind, we could clear that up quickly.

"And being the press's darling only helps a Republican until they've got the nomination secured, because the press will always ditch a likable Republican in favor of a Democrat come the general election."

I have to join John Miller in noting that this doesn't accord with my view of the last two presidential elections. (Certain other years further past, I might agree about.)

"Posting note: Won't be often for a while: Compression fracture of a vertebra sledding. Gotta try remembering I'm not 16 anymore..."

Ow. Back problems suck. sorry to hear it. Also sympathies with the not-16 part. I started turning into a grumpy old man years ago, which makes no sense, since I'm really only somewhere between 16 and 23 inside. It's the physical parts that are 49 that give me trouble. Perhaps we should both look into Dorian Gray options....

Sympathies, and best wishes for speedy improvement.

Meanwhile, my recommendation: lots of prescription painkillers!

(Though hard-won experience teaches me that they don't go well with posting at times.)

On the positive side, hope you enjoyed the sledding! (With children, or just a hobby?)

the press will always ditch a likable Republican in favor of a Democrat come the general election.

Atrios has a cute little example of exactly how the press will treat a McCain/Hillary race.

Something tells me that McCain won't allow swiftboating in the general election

An old man in a hurry will do most anything...

because the press will always ditch a likable Republican in favor of a Democrat come the general election.

Hasn't happened in my lifetime, and I was born the year Adlai lost the second time.

On the bright side, publius, perhaps Huckabee could go further than Iowa? I do think the Republican establishment would rally to McCain, and he'd probably eventually get the nomination, but Huckabee can manage a decent fight then the huge contradiction of the Republican party (its elite has the opposite economic interests to its base) might come to light in an ugly fashion. Huckabee could be the first stirrings of a long period of tumult for the republican party.

"Atrios has a cute little example of exactly how the press will treat a McCain/Hillary race."

Atrios is quoting Sifu Tweety of poorman.net?

Or is it one of those code things, designed to make political talk incomprehensible to people not part of the club, which is how we persuade people in a democracy?

Or wtf?

Yeah, I'm being a bit cynical; I'm guessing choice b, and being cranky about how stupid that sort of language is, because of why: I'm about as enthusiastic a Democrat as around, and I have no idea whom he means. I could look it up, but that's not the point. Cutesy talk isn't useful, overall, when trying to address even as small a group as the blogosphere, when only those who obsessively follow a site even understand it.

Gary, this help any?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LPM_iYVoy4

"Gary, this help any?"

Have I ever given you reason to think I had broadband access?

Have you ever noticed any of my comments or posts about not having broadband access, and asking if people could give links to transcripts, rather than links that aren't useable to people without broadband?

Regardless, how could we debate something without a transcript?

So, feel free to quote whatever it is you have in mind. Using written words.

Thanks, Brett.

Or is it one of those code things, designed to make political talk incomprehensible to people not part of the club, which is how we persuade people in a democracy?

Atrios thinks Chris Matthews looks like Tweety Bird, so he always uses the name.

FOX loves them some McCain, too: even 4th is enough to make em giddy.

Sorry 'bout that. (Though it was only a few seconds clip.) From McCain being interviewed on Imus:

"He [Michael Graham] also mentioned my abridgement of First Amendment rights, i.e. talking about campaign finance reform….I know that money corrupts….I would rather have a clean government than one where quote First Amendment rights are being respected, that has become corrupt. If I had my choice, I'd rather have the clean government.""

hope you feel better soon brett - sounds nasty

You're wrong about order of preference.

The Huckabee win means that even after NH, when the Dems may well have a presumptive nominee, the Republicans will still be bitterly divided. You'll have a "national" frontrunner in Giulianni with no primaries to his name, Huckabee with Iowa and the evangelical base, and McCain (who they still despise) holding New Hampshire.

If it remains divided, and Mitt can avoid total collapse, he may recapture some Mo by winning Michigan.

We could get eight to ten weeks here where the Republicans are in circular firing squad mode.

That's not as big a crippling weakness as, say, having Giulianni for a candidate (which would also keep Bloomberg at bay)-- but it's got to be worth something.

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