Peaking Too Early

by publius

In other signs of the apocalypse, watch as I quote Byron York on Huckabee and the NIE:

After Kuhn explained the NIE's findings to Huckabee, Huckabee seemed confused about what it meant. Beyond doing nothing to resolve doubts about his foreign policy qualifications, the exchange underscores the fact that Huckabee doesn't really have much of a campaign, in the sense that Giuliani and Romney have campaigns, with teams of advisers and carefully-thought-out policy positions. In important ways, he has been flying by the seat of his pants, relying on his unequaled talents as a retail campaigner. But now that he is leading in Iowa, and moving up nationally as well, the deficiencies of his campaign might come more and more into the spotlight.

In political campaigns, you often hear that a candidate is “peaking too early.” It’s not entirely clear what the phrase means though. If anything, it's misleading because it subtly implies that campaigns helplessly rise and fall like rhythms of nature. But campaigns rise and fall for specific reasons – not merely because things that go up must come down.

“Peaking too early,” then, may simply be a way of saying that one’s ascent generated too many costs to last. These costs could come at the front end or the back end. For instance, maybe you burned through too many resources on the way up. Think about a sprinter who briefly takes first place in the Boston Marathon before quickly falling back. Alternatively, and on the back end, maybe something about being first (or at least polling higher) generates new costs. This is where York’s point comes in. Huckabee’s ascent makes him more visible and more open to new attacks. These are costs he didn’t have the luxury of facing months ago.

As of now, both Huckabee and Obama are on the upswing. And it may be that both are peaking too early. But I doubt it. My prediction is that Huckabee is peaking too early, but Obama is not. The difference – which York correctly seizes upon – is organization. Huckabee lacks a real organization in Iowa, or anywhere else for that matter. As York notes, Huckabee doesn’t have sophisticated organizations that can digest breaking news quickly and advise him accordingly.

Huckabee’s NIE failure is therefore a textbook example of the dynamic I explained above. His rise is exposing all-too-clearly his infrastructural weaknesses in ways he never had to deal with before. A few more body blows like the NIE ignorance – completely preventable blows at that – could break Huckabee Fever. If, however, he had peaked two weeks from now, maybe he could have run out the clock before these flaws were exposed.

Obama, by contrast, is a different story. He arguably has the best organization on the ground in Iowa, and in a number of other states too. Because he has constructed a sophisticated, tentacled organization, he's in an infinitely stronger position to maximize his wave and translate it into lasting political gains. To use an analogy, Obama’s camp has spent months meticulously digging the ditches and carving out the irrigation channels, waiting for the flood waters. If and when they come, Obama's campaign can direct and manage them far more systematically. Huckabee, by contrast, doesn’t seem ready for the wave he’s experiencing. He doesn’t have the organization in place to seize this wave and – for instance – recruit new caucus volunteers, inspire people to sign up with local chapters, etc.

The larger, entirely non-novel point here is that organization matters. You must have organizational structures in place to seize the big moments when they come. And this point extends well beyond campaigns. Josh Marshall, for instance, made the effort to transform a popular, yet routine, blog into a new sprawling media organization. As a result, he's ready when the muck comes calling (from Alaska and elsewhere).

Also, Matt Bai’s book – which I’m only now reading – illustrates the same lesson with respect to the construction of the conservative intellectual infrastructure over the past 30 years. From Justice Powell on, conservatives carefully built up organizations and infrastructure that allowed them to seize critical moments (e.g., Bush’s election, 9/11) when they happened.

Of course, things don’t always work out so well. But true political change (good or bad) requires organization-building. Obama’s team seems to understand that at a much deeper level than the others. And it’s beginning to show.

[UPDATE: Scott Lemieux has more. He also introduces me to the phrase "Hair Club for Growth," which I shall incorporate forthwith.]

Comments

[liberal japonicus]

Hmmm, I have this feeling that for Republican candidates, it should be 'peeking too early', cause it's better if they can get in before anyone really figures out what they are really like.

[cleek]

...or piquing too early. people just aren't ready for a primary yet and any interest now will wear off by the time anyone gets to vote on anything?

[drydock]

Huffington nails Huckabee on releasing a serial rapist.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/04/documents-expose-huckabee_n_75362.html

I would say this just might sink his boat.

[rea]

It's just too much to expect a presidential candidate to know as much about foriegn policy as, say, a blogger, without a huge staff to tell him what to think . . . it takes a village to raise a president. God forbid that the guy should spend an hour a day reading.

[kid bitzer]

ot, but i want to thank publius for doing a bang-up job. tons of good posts, right mixture of snark & substance.

[John Thullen]

Pishposh!

Huckabee's victory over his weight problem has made him eminently qualified to tackle heavy foreign policy issues.

He will examine the fossil evidence and hold his head because man's life on Earth is so complicated.

Then he'll read Revelations and simplify, simplify, simplify.

[Model 62]

And who can forget Governor Dean's pique in front of all those cameras, sending him sliding back down the mountain?

Speaking of Dean, Huckabee is this election's model. People don't like mainstream, establishment, plastic politicians. They'll take a look at the homespun, craft fair, nothing-to-lose alternative before brand consciousness kicks in. As everybody knows, you just can't beat a national brand for consistent quality and reliable operation.

[john miller]

publius, your post is based upon the assumption that the electorate at large really cares about experience or knowledge of the world outside our borders.

That is very arguable.

[Nell]

[Obama] arguably has the best organization on the ground in Iowa

What information are you basing that on? Or, less charitably, assuming that your grasp of "organization on the ground in Iowa" isn't the product of first-hand experience, whose assessment are you repeating?

As an Edwards supporter, and someone who realizes that without a clear win in Iowa his campaign will be dead dead dead, one of my lowest moments this spring was learning that HRC's campaign had overhauled their Iowa operation and brought in Teresa Vilmain. She was Harkin's field director in his first Senate campaign in 1984. She's done field work almost continuously for the last two decades. The news had very much the feel of being in a pickup basketball game and seeing Michael Jordan join the other team. Sure, he's old, and past his prime -- but he's way better than 99.9% of anybody our side could call on.

I'll be delighted to be proven wrong on election day. Maybe Teresa V.'s only there to insure against a credibility-dinging fourth-place or weak third-place finish for HRC. {whistles past graveyard...}

[KCinDC]

I would say this just might sink his boat.

Maybe, but that information has been out for years and the boat hasn't sunk yet.

[libertarian]

Yeah, I think Huckabee's rise is similar to an unheard of stock that gets a good mention on some TV show - but after the price skyrockets, the investors and researchers realize there are no technical fundamentals to back up the rise.

Or at least I hope so... that would mean that his numbers start dropping back to reality soon. But I've been watching the Republican race and I'm not sure who could pick up the lead - the party seems so factionalized with no clear "compromise candidate"

[wonkie]

I agree that a candidate's knowledgle or lack thereof really isn't much of a factor inwinning elelctions. Ignorance will lose them leftwinng activist votes but that's all.

many people rightly think that they themsleves lack the knwledge to determine policy, so, when choosing a President, they look for someone they believe is trustworthy. The "trustworthy" candidate is the one that has the right persona as communicated visually by the TV. Kennedy and Reagan had that TV-friendly "trustworthy" personality. Hillary Clintondoes nnot. Huckabee might. He will be a formidable candidate especially if matched by Clinton.

Reagan lacked knowledge and lacked responsible advisors and yet,to this day, he is widely believed to have been a good President. Seeing is believing for many people.

Many voters will vote against their own beliefs for a candidate who seems to them to be trustworthy. many Reagan supporters didn't like his policies or his corruption--remember the "Teflon President"?

I think that it is not going to be an effective response to mock Huckabee for his lack of knowledge or his religion.

[Tom]

Ignorance will lose them leftwinng activist votes but that's all.

I think the salient point is about appearances, not actual ignorance. In order to appear presidential, Huckabee needs to have a campaign staff that can digest breaking news and tell him what he should say when reporters ask him about it.

[wonkie]

I don't thinkso. A significant number of voters equate a Presidential appearance with perceived trustworthiness, not the ablity to sound well informed. To get elelcted a candidate needs to appeal to some voters on the issues but also get the votes of the people who jjust like that candidate better.

[sniflheim]

A tentacled organization! He just might peel off us Cthulhu voters after all.

[wonkie]

I do think the story about how he let rightwing loons convince him to release a rapist will hurt him if the sotry becomes well known. It is a very significant story, in my view, because victims of the rapist appealled to Huckabee personally to refrain from releasing the rapist. he went ahead and the rapist acted again. Huckabee's excuse is that he had no way of knowing the rapist was dangerous. I guess one convictin and letters from victims wasn't evidence enough to offset pressure from the extreme righht. Kevin Drum has more about this.

[trilobite]

Oddly, part of "trustworthiness" seems to be smugness. Voters seem to go for the candidate who acts like he has already won. This is the same tactic that all the guidebooks say wins job interviews -- act like you already have the job.

I don't mean nasty or dismissive. I'm speaking of an attitude that says, "I am so far above my opponent that he amuses me. Now let's get back to the formality of voting me in." Think of Reagan's 1980 "There you go again." Has there ever been such a smug, arrogant statement in a Presidential debate? People lapped it up. Four years later, I think he promised not to take advantage of Mondale's youth and inexperience -- a great joke, but an arrogant one. GWB did not strike me as smug in the debates, but he's smug and arrogant as all he11 in his other public appearances -- e.g., "I'm the Decider," or "we had our accountability moment," blaming Congress for wasting his time by passing legislation that they knew he would veto, etc. The man reeks of privilege and, again, people seem to love him for it.

Liberal politicians have been scared away from this winning pose by the media, which for some reason calls only liberals smug and arrogant, even though virtually every right-wing pol (including all the 2008 R candidates) exudes the attitude that he should be in charge and is always right. All Al Gore had to do was roll his eyes a bit, and the press was all over him. The result is that most of our politicians try to act humble and earnest, which comes across as needy. Even when they win, they are despised as weaklings (Carter, Clinton).

Hillary may win because she talks like a winner, and doesn't seem weak.

[Nell]

A tentacled organization! He just might peel off us Cthulhu voters after all.

Sniflheim wins the thread.

[Gary Farber]

"A significant number of voters equate a Presidential appearance with perceived trustworthiness, not the ablity to sound well informed."

Cue Reagan.

Cthulhu doesn't have voters.

Just meals.