The Huckabee Spoiler Alert

by publius

Via (man or machine?) Benen, I saw the Huckabee Risin’ poll in Iowa. Ana Marie Cox threw cold water on the methodology, but even fundraising indicates Huckabee is getting stronger. Stronger, though, is not necessarily strong. And I still don’t see him as a viable candidate. What I do see him as is a viable spoiler for Mitt Romney, and thus Rudy’s MVP.

Romney’s strategy is based on winning Iowa and New Hampshire and riding the cascade to glory. Rudy and Thompson are trying to withstand that first wave and knock him out in the later rounds. (Is McCain still running?). With that in mind, consider the following sitch-ee-ation:

Romney continues to lead big in Iowa, and ultimately wins convincingly. Much to Romney’s dismay, however, the big story out of Iowa is Huckabee’s better-than-expected second-place finish. Pundits looking for a narrative that makes them sound interesting and insider-ish will focus on Huckabee over Romney. After all, everyone’s known for months that Romney would win. That's boring. We need fresh. I can hear it now – Is this Clinton in 1992? Is Huckabee for real? Could evangelicals get behind Huckabee? And on it goes.

Huckabee still won’t have much money or recognition. His second-place finish will, however, be a giant opportunity cost for Romney, robbing him of the precious post-Iowa buzz he needs to win. (Similarly, the Dean Scream arguably hurt Edwards by forcing him into Third-Biggest-Story-in-Iowa status in 2004). The Huckabee diversion will also be a godsend for Rudy, who just needs to avoid a Tyson-like early-round knockout that could come from Romney’s Iowa-New Hampshire snowball.

Utter speculation? Of course -- but even non-Pajamas Media bloggers speculate from time to time. Still, I think it’s a very plausible situation. In fact, it’s sort of already happened. Romney’s “purchase” of the Iowa straw poll was intended to generate buzz and a sense of inevitability. The story I kept hearing, however, was that Huckabee did better than expected -- for far less money. When you think of media buzz in terms of opportunity costs, Huckabee’s post-straw buzz probably harmed the Romney camp. Only slightly this time, but you could see the future earthquake from these tremors.

Of course, maybe the local Iowa coverage was much different. I’ll leave that to the real reporters -- January in Iowa sounds lovely and all...

Comments

[rilkefan]

Huckabee's been the chosen dark horse for a certain class of liberal bloggers for the longest time. The argument has been that he's the only actually likable and sincere candidate on the R side, and that the Dumond matter might be the only thing that would really hurt him.

[Incertus (Brian)]

I think you're right that Huckabee has the chance to be a spoiler and not much else this time around--even if he were to do the unthinkable and actually win Iowa, the primary calendar is so front-laden with contests that once the process is started, you can't raise money quickly enough to use it all. You need money now to be competitive in, say, Florida by the end of January, and free press will only get you so far. So unless Huckabee can pull a $30 million quarter out of his ass, he's done no matter what happens in Iowa.

But if I were Rudy (and thank the gods I'm not), I'd certainly be telling my people to quietly push the idea of Huckabee as a second choice if they're in a caucus site where Rudy's not going to get any delegates.

[Phil]

If you haven't read tristero dropping the A-bomb on Huckabee, concerning the "Dumond matter" rf alludes to above, please do. It's delicious.

[Stealth]

Shouldn't Romney and Giuliani be fighting over Huckabee as a running mate?

[Huckabee Puzzle]

Most folks are missing the monumental plain-as-day piece of the Huckabee puzzle. Ask yourself, why is Mr. Huckabee doing well? Or better, how does anyone know who he is?

Huckabee was introduced to the public in a huge free promotion by the mainstream media and is staying alive through an unparalleled hold-your-fire by the Democrats. Ask, "Why does the mainstream media give him a non-stop, glowing, unbelievably positive free-ride?" (Huckabee free-ride reporting as of the past sixty minutes, "Huckabee bags a bird in Iowa" (Associated Press) ...from a gun control obsessed MSM written as if Huck was a top kindergarden student that had earned a gold star) and ask, "Why are the Democratics smiling and maintaining radio-silence?" Such obvious questions are these that even democratic pundits find it impossible not to blurt them out.

In case the plain fact of the "Huck Boom" has escaped you, the reality is that as soon as he might win the nomination, the MSM/Democratics know they can go into action and quickly extinguish Mr. Huckabee. They know they could mop the floor with poor Huck - in front of America they could have him melting down in only several evening newscasts like a character at the end of the movie "Raiders of the Lost Ark".

Setting up the sting, can one possibly fathom that with all the blunders Huckabee has made, with a checkered past of controversial if not bizarre comments, no negative news about him ever appears? From a mainstream media that loves to hate Republicans, mind boggling. Imagine how the elitist, "Oh-so-disdainful-of-Heartland-America" MSM/Democratic machine laughs inside over the likes Mr. Huckabee and what they know they can do with him. Mr. Huckabee, confronted by the mountain of negative news articles the mainstream media would unleash, would sink like a confused, bible thumping dullard that couldn't utter more than, "Shazam!". With the Clintons' connections in Arkansas, enough documentation illustrating incompetence by the Huck will mysteriously appear in lead stories on the evening news he won't be able to get out more than, "Goah-ah-Oh-ah-Lee?!"

Consider a wildly slanted mainstream media that daily features headlines like the idiotic, "Clinton says wife a 'world-class genius'" (AP - Fri Dec 21, 1:16 AM ET). Can you imagine gems like "Goah-Lee, Vote for Gomer for President" to continue? Laughing out-loud yet? It isn't a matter of whether you genuinely like Huckabee, it's that there won't be anything left of him after the MSM/Dems turn, aim and fire. "Gomer The Huck", with tossed hair and torn pages in his bible, will pray he was back doing pushups for Sgt. Carter and the race for the Whitehouse over.

Huckabee has been set up as the MSM/Dems' spoiler-stooge, and if you're falling for it you're in for a big surprise. Could Mr. Huckabee win in November? The question is would he walk, limp, or crawl back to Arkansas. The mainstream media, elitist organizations acknowledging almost 100% Democratic staffs, will sucker-punch Huck relentlessly when the faux fawning is over. If Huckabee gets the nomination, crates of champagne will be quietly delivered to the ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Time-Warner, and Democratic headquarters as the eyes of their staffs well with tears of joy. Voting for Huckabee? Save time and trouble for yourself and the meltdown for Huck - vote instead directly for Hillary.

[Gary Farber]

That should nip in the bud the wave of Huck Mania that has so overtaken everyone here. Pshew!

Now we can get back to fighting Hillary!