It's Jonah Goldberg Day!

by hilzoy

Two years ago today, Jonah Goldberg offered Juan Cole a bet:

"Anyway, I do think my judgment is superior to his when it comes to the big picture. So, I have an idea: Since he doesn't want to debate anything except his own brilliance, let's make a bet. I predict that Iraq won't have a civil war, that it will have a viable constitution, and that a majority of Iraqis and Americans will, in two years time, agree that the war was worth it. I'll bet $1,000 (which I can hardly spare right now). This way neither of us can hide behind clever word play or CV reading. If there's another reasonable wager Cole wants to offer which would measure our judgment, I'm all ears. Money where your mouth is, doc.

One caveat: Because I don't think it's right to bet on such serious matters for personal gain, if I win, I'll donate the money to the USO. He can give it to the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade or whatever his favorite charity is. "

Juan Cole turned the bet down. Jonah Goldberg seems to think that this makes it silly to discuss the whole thing:

"E&P this morning asked Goldberg for his response, and he e-mailed: "I offered the bet in a foolish fit of pique with Cole. ... Cole refused to take the bet. ... [Now] it seems that his fans want it both ways. They want to extol Cole as a prince for not accepting the bet, but they want me to be held accountable to it even though he never agreed to it. Countless blogs have been dishonest about this suggesting I owe Cole himself $1,000."

Just so I'm very, very clear about this: Juan Cole turned down the bet. Therefore, Jonah Goldberg does not owe him any money. Not a dime.

However, that's not the point. The point, according to me, is that Jonah Goldberg offered this bet as proof of his superior judgment. That in itself was a demonstration of bad judgment: at any rate, I would think long and hard before challenging CharleyCarp, von, Seb, or publius to a bet about the law, and on those occasions when I have disagreed with people who really ought to know a lot more than me -- disagreeing with the Israeli military establishment about the likely consequences of the war in Lebanon is the example that leaps to mind -- I spent a long time questioning my own judgment before I did so.

In any case, Jonah Goldberg offered this as proof of his superior judgment. And, as Matt Yglesias points out, he also insinuated "that Professor Cole is a terrorist whereas Goldberg is a patriot." And he was wrong, wrong, wrong. Moreover: there are possible worlds in which one might think: things worked out badly, but that doesn't in any way call Goldberg's judgment into question. Suppose, for instance, that Iraq had been doing really well until some unforeseen catastrophe befell the country -- a serious epidemic, a large meteorite landing in central Baghdad, or something like that. Then one might think: could Goldberg really have been expected to foresee that?

Unfortunately for all of us, that's not what happened.

Goldberg seems to think not only that we should all forget about the bet because Cole didn't take it, but also that the fact that he has admitted that the Iraq war was a mistake settles the matter:

"Regardless, Cohen knows Cole never took the bet, but he's trying to muddy the waters. Indeed, I've admitted that Cole would have won. I've written that the Iraq War was a mistake. ... I join a long list of people whose expectations about the war and its handling turned out to be wrong in whole or in part. ..."

But to me the point of this story is: this was the test Goldberg chose to illustrate the superiority of his own judgment. He came up with the idea. He could have chosen some other test, but he chose this one. He was, presumably, pretty sure of it. He failed that test. Moreover, he didn't fail it as a result of some unforeseeable fluke; he failed it completely, and in spades. The decent thing to do would be to admit that his judgment about such things is dreadful, and that whoever gave him a platform to write about them made a terrible mistake.

He should then find some other line of work, where he might yet, in some way, prove useful to mankind.

Comments

[norbizness]

Anybody unaware of the staggering laziness, servile cheerleading, and prideful know-nothingism of the Doughy Pantload has never read more than one paragraph of his, and for that I envy them.

[cleek]

The decent thing to do would be to admit that his judgment about such things is dreadful, and that whoever gave him a platform to write about them made a terrible mistake.

that would mean caving to pressure from the illiberal left, which wants nothing more than to keep conservatives from ever speaking out again. if Goldberg goes down over this, conservatives will never be allowed to speculate again. so they must dig in their heels and fight this to the death. don't Cut, Or, Run. Stay The Course. don't show weakness.

/snark

[sujal]

It does beg the question, Does anyone actually like Jonah Goldberg's writing? On any subject?

[Andrew]

I do. I suspect that I'm not alone (although I may be here at ObWi).

[Edward_]

He should then find some other line of work, where he might yet, in some way, prove useful to mankind.

OK, so like we'll have to move to Utah or something, but that's just too fabulous not to ask: Hilzoy, will you marry me?

[dmbeaster]

Naturally, Goldberg thinks its all about the bet, and since Cole turned him down, then none of its matters.

And that the offer of the bet was just a silly fit of pique -- as opposed to his analysis. Was that also just some silly fit of pique? Somehow Goldberg manages to avoid talking about his prediction -- anything to avoid the simple truth that Cole had it right and Goldberg was dead wrong.

Goldberg writes a regular op-ed for the LA Times, and its odious that such a hack is given that platform. He'll remain second rate because he has not learned the fine art of plausible deniability in making pundit predictions. Friedman has mastered it -- this will happen and is a good idea if Bush does this or that. Drivel so laden with qualification (which he knows will not happen) that it is meaningless, but the act is saying with it true feeling, with a compliant interviewer nodding serious agreement.

[Slartibartfast]

I've gotten to the point where I almost can't stand to read my own writing, anymore.

Which probably explains a few things, come to think of it.

hilzoy's really the only voice of sanity, anymore, and even she's not averse to reading and even occasionally linking to Atrios or Sadly, No!, which kind of puts a dent in that whole last-bastion-of-sanity image, every time I think of it. So I try not to.

[hilzoy]

Edward: I have this firm intention of dancing at your wedding, but the whole point is that you should be marrying Bambino, or failing that, a guy. And our marriage would sort of interfere with that. Although, as you say, Utah has possibilities. (Nice scenery, too.)

More seriously: we miss you!

[Katherine]

yeah! And email me next time you're in Chicago eddie.

[John Thullen]

"And our marriage would sort of interfere with that."

Gosh, sometimes liberals are sooo close-minded! ;)

Hey, Hilzoy, I'm glad you included the last line in the past regarding Goldberg's usefulness. With all due respect to Andrew, I do think the line is a little wordy. "Shut up. Jonah," would have been more to the point, not to mention highly ethical.

Goldberg's paragraph proposing the bet just about reaches the level of a guy slouching over a bar brandishing his testosterone gland at an overheard conversation at a nearby table, doc. It displays all of the pathetic machismo (what they call, in cage fighting, "superior judgement") of so many of the lower forms of what is mistaken for conservative blogging and writing, pal. He's not even a natty dresser with foppish hair like Cliff May, bub.

Their idea of journalism is hunting down lipstick samples on the loins of former Presidents. Their idea of war is not unlike the Al Aqsa Brigade's idea of war: make sure the fuse between them and the bomb is as long as possible so the truly guilty don't get hurt.

As to Cole's favorite charity, whatever leads to both Jonah and his truly ghastly mother shutting up forever (rolled up socks inserted into their gobs, packing their mouths with salt, copious amounts of duck tape permanently applied) is deserving of a line item payroll deduction on the United Way charity list.

[togolosh]

I wish I could find a way to take pleasure in the boot to the crotch the war pimps have received from reality. I can't - too many have died, too many are injured. The icing on the cake is the backpedalling and revisionism. The new consensus reality is that everyone thought there were WMD, despite the fact that the majority of informed opinion said that either there were no WMD or that the evidence was unclear.

[Jackmormon]

Thullen for Hillary's blogmaestro!

[SomeOtherDude]

Living in such a wealthy society, where "traditionalists" and "small government" types act as if war is a game.

God bless America!

[sglover]

Aw, go easy on Goldberg. He's just happy that he didn't have to hit his mom up for the thousand clams.

[Pooh]

The decent thing to do would be to admit that his judgment about such things is dreadful, and that whoever gave him a platform to write about them made a terrible mistake.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh, Hil, the setup was a bit long, but what a punchline...

[Francis]

on my absence from the list of lawyers, what am i, chopped liver? hmph.

some of his writing pre-war over at NRO was quirky and occasionally amusing. since the war's gone bad he seems both dull and desperate. which is an odd combination.

Thullen: duct tape - useless for taping ducts due to its inability to deal with thermal expansion. otherwise, like the Force -- has a light side, a dark side and holds the universe together.

duck tape -- what you need to get a proper sear on your maigrets de canard when cooking on a sailboat?

[Nombrilisme Vide]

It does beg the question, Does anyone actually like Jonah Goldberg's writing? On any subject?

I'm more than a little embarrassed to admit this, but I must profess something resembling the occasional slight fondness for Goldberg's turn of phrase. This generally involves the Herculean chore of totally ignoring the substance of said phrase, and rarely happens anyway because I generally don't want to subject myself to this substance.

Someone (can't remember who) one remarked that it was a true and tragic loss to society when Goldberg decided to write on serious issues, rather than, say, pop culture commentary. I personally justify my (rare almost to the point of non-existence) small pleasure at reading Goldberg in these terms...

[Nombrilisme Vide]

duck tape -- what you need to get a proper sear on your maigrets de canard when cooking on a sailboat?

Well, in fairness to Thullen, there is a brand of duct tape called Duck Tape...

[Gary Farber]

Technically, Goldberg is a perfectly competent writer. He can also be amusing from time to time.

The question of how often one agrees with him is an entirely different one, as is what one thinks of his judgment.