Election Thread

by hilzoy

I don't know whether or not I'll update this as the evening progresses, but I might. In the meantime, here, with great big caveats (remember 2004! remember 2004!), are purported exit polls:

"Dem leads:
VA: 52-47
RI: 53-46
PA: 57-42
OH: 57-43
NJ: 52-45
MT: 53-46
MO: 50-48
MD: 53-46

GOPer leads:
TN: 51-48
AZ: 50-46"

Allen, Santorum, and Weldon losing: that would make me happy whatever else happened.

Dirty tricks in my very own state:

"Inaccurate sample ballots describing Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and Senate candidate Michael S. Steele as Democrats were handed out to voters in at least four polling sites in Prince George's County this morning.

The ballots were distributed by people who said they arrived by buses this morning from Pennsylvania and Delaware.

Erik Markle, one of the people handing out literature for Ehrlich, who is seeking reelection, and Steele, the current lieutenant governor who is campaigning to replace retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D), said he was recruited at a homeless shelter in Philadelphia. (...)

The Ehrlich and Steele campaigns yesterday acknowledged sending out an election-eve flier, sporting pictures of Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson, his predecessor Wayne K. Curry and former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume. The mailer, declaring itself an "official voter guide" and criticized by Democrats, suggested the three Democrats backed Ehrlich and Steele. Curry has endorsed Steele; none has endorsed Ehrlich."

Results should start trickling in after 7. Fwiw, I predict Democrats gaining 22 in the House and 4 in the Senate. (I'm blocking those exit polls out of my mind; this has been my prediction for a while. But I'm lousy at predictions; my record of getting them wrong is truly breathtaking.)

Comments

[Ugh]

I'll settle for anything that makes the MBFs at Bizarro World extremely upset.

[ThirdGorchBro]

So I just got back from voting - straight Democratic, even though it meant I couldn't vote Kinky for governor. It would be pretty awesome if he won, though I know he won't.

I doubt my vote will matter much anyway, since I live in the heavily Republican 7th Congressional District of Texas. The current (and probable continuing) occupant of this House seat is John Culberson, who looks a little like Philip Seymour Hoffman, but is way less cool. His Democratic opponent is Jim Henley - not the blogger, but this guy, who is a middle-school debate teacher and the brother of convicted/pardoned Whitewater felon Susan MacDougal. So, at least he's got a head start on the whole corruption thing. I voted for him anyway, 'cause Culberson just irritates me.

No problems voting, and no excitement at the polling location either. The lone placard-carrying issues supporter that I saw was urging people to vote "yes" on the critical Proposition G for the city of Houston, which promises to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for the police, fire dept, street repair, and kittens, all without raising taxes. Needless to say, I voted "yes."

I don't see a vote for Democrats as a vote for liberalism, because there's no way they can get their act together enough to actually push this country to the left. If they take control of Congress and stop Bush from doing any more damage over his last two years, I'll be satisfied.

[liberal japonicus]

to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for the police, fire dept, street repair, and kittens

About time! A little post election freshening up of this place would be nice. Maybe something along the lines of 'It's morning in the blogosphere'

[jjf]

It's not an open thread, is it? Cause I've been wondering why the site is called "obsidian wings". Can anyone enlighten me?

[Jesurgislac]

In the meantime, here, with great big caveats (remember 2004! remember 2004!), are purported exit polls:

Everywhere else in the world - and in the US, oddly enough, until relatively recently - exit polls are a reliable marker of election results. Only in the US do hordes of invisible voters suddenly decide to vote in the last hour before the polls close... and, strangely enough, all of these invisible hordes choose to vote so as to reverse the exit polls.

No inquiry is deemed necessary. Since the invisible voters vote Republican, after all, they can't possibly be felons, illegal immigrants, or Democrats, so there can be no problem with allowing their votes to be counted.

[Ugh]

CNN predicts that scum guy Blackwell loses in Ohio.

[Phil]

Jumpin' Jehovah, CNN shows Allen ahead by 16 points, and the gay marriage ban passing. I'm glad I'm moving out of Virginia next year.

[CharleyCarp]

Relax, Phil, those are raw numbers, and are based on small counties reporting. It's already tightening up.

[Phil]

Yeah, I know, I just . . . yeesh.

[Gromit]

Santorum is GONE!

[Josh]

Gromit: Link?

[Gromit]

Here you go. Shall we say he "screwed the pooch"? It's also on NPR.

[Slartibartfast]

But I'm lousy at predictions; my record of getting them wrong is truly breathtaking.

Worse than exit polls? Worse than Kos, even?

I voted about 8:15am today; the polls were practically empty. Looks as if Nelson is going to win handily, but it also looks as if Keller will win handily. And it looks as if Foley's stand-in is winning as well.

No surprises here, then, except for maybe the Foley-replacement factor.

[Slartibartfast]

Yeehaw.

[Gromit]

CNN and NPR are calling NJ for Menendez. Whew!

[Gromit]

Brown wins in Ohio, says NPR and CNN.

[matttbastard]

CNN says Cardin has won in Maryland.

[Slartibartfast]

Odd. Calling elections with 1% reporting.

Well, we'll see if this works any better this time than it did the last couple of times.

[matttbastard]

Whitehouse beats Chafee in Rhode Island, again as per CNN.

[cleek]

I voted about 8:15am today; the polls were practically empty.

i drive by the place where i vote on my way to and from work. so, i've been watching it for a week, during early voting and today, to check turnout - i never once saw a line. there's about 50 feet from the front door inside to the voting room, but still - for the presidential elections, i stood outside for an hour, waiting.

midterms is boring.

[Phil]

Not for Mr. Man-On-Box-Turtle, they ain't. Dan Savage is going to throw the biggest party in history.

[Gromit]

Box Turtles is John Cornyn, who'll be up in 2008. Santorum is into puppies.

[OCSteve]

No inquiry is deemed necessary. Since the invisible voters vote Republican, after all, they can't possibly be felons, illegal immigrants, or Democrats, so there can be no problem with allowing their votes to be counted.

Well the night is early Jes, but the GOP seems to be getting shellacked. Hell, they lost “Clerk of Wills” here. And I have seen a lot of big margins.

So, if the vote seems lopsided in a D landslide in the end will you still be suspicious?

[OCSteve]

So, if the vote seems lopsided in a D landslide in the end will you still be suspicious?

Sorry – that was uncalled for. I am feeling very weird right now. We were watching the returns and my wife said, “What have we done, voting that way”? Well dear, apparently what lots of other folks done…

I’ve never been in this situation before, so apologizes if I seem cranky for a bit. I’m just glad this damned thing is going to be over soon (I hope).

[CaseyL]

NPR just announced that Weldon's lost. YAYAYAYAYAYAY!

[lily]

I wonder if the robocall thing backfired?

I don't suppose I'm really the righht person to offer reassurance to OCSteve but... I really don't think the Democrats are going to do anything that's worse than what we've already experienced. I hope they'll do better than that..paygo, common sense security measures, responisble oversight, stuff like that.

[Jay C]

OCSteve:

I wouldn't worry too much about a Dem "landslide" - so far the results seem well within the limits predicted - but "lopsided" results seem to be the rule in most Congressional districts: it's a function of rampant gerrymandering - I've noticed that something like 65-35% margins (D or R) are more common than not in most House races: the number of really close contests is pretty small.

[Gromit]

The VA election is about to get very ugly, isn't it.

[CharleyCarp]

Get ugly?

It's certainly going to be within automatic recall range.

[Jay C]

Re VA: IIRC, auto recount with anything less than a .05% margin (half of one pct.)

Definitely Recount City.

[KCinDC]

The suspense in our election was whether Adrian Fenty would break 90% in the mayoral race. Looks like he didn't quite make it.

[Katherine]

I'm already thrilled with the House. The Senate would be better, obviously, but....

I turned 28 at midnight. The last election night the Democrats won the House, Senate, or Presidency, I wasn't old enough to vote.

[Gromit]

Happy Birthday, Katherine!

CharleyCarp: Get ugly?

Well, there's ugly, then there's Florida 2000 ugly. If by some stroke of luck both Montana and Missouri go blue...

[Francis]

happy birthday, K!

[from a senior member of the ObWi bar]

[hilzoy]

My.

We broke out the champagne when Weldon went down -- we thought that Santorum's loss was champagne-worthy, but not unexpected enough.

Think of this: Henry Waxman can hold hearings.

OCSteve: "Sorry – that was uncalled for. I am feeling very weird right now. We were watching the returns and my wife said, “What have we done, voting that way”? "

I don't think the Democrats will be too hard on conservatives. For one thing, we don't have anything approaching veto-proof majorities; for another, I suspect we will be very much aware that a lot of the margins were close, and we are on probation. I could be wrong, but I think that should make conservatives who voted Democratic sleep easier.

Even I am happy with that -- I'd much rather we concentrate on pulling together the country than that we push our majority as hard as we can. That's one of the things I mind about Bush (not as much as the corruption, incompetence, and arrogance, but one thing) -- the fact that he has always governed as though he had a huge mandate, even though he never did, and never so much as tried to reach out to anyone.

From the point of view of me getting my favorite policies adopted, looking to the long run and trying to build a consensus will be the smart play. From the point of view of the country, of course trying to heal will be the best thing as well.

For what it's worth: by 'trying to bring the country together' I do not mean that we should e.g. not hold hearings, lay blame where it is deserved, and so forth. Holding hearings is about letting the country see what has been going on, and getting accountability for things like corruption in Iraq reconstruction. What I do mean is: building support by laying out our case, strongly when need be, rather than forcing through divisive issues when there is nothing like a consensus behind them, through arm-twisting and fear-mongering and tricks. I believe that we will do that, both for tactical and principled reasons.

As I said, I could be wrong. But we know that the present Republican leadership doesn't operate that way, so it could hardly get worse.

In any case, if the Democrats turn into blue versions of Tom DeLay, I will drive out and buy you and your wife a gloomy drink, and we can commiserate together.

[hilzoy]

And happy birthday, Katherine!

[Gromit]

NPR says MO goes blue.

Actually, a TPM reader makes the case that if Allen contests the results it will be a golden opportunity to get to the bottom of the GOP's dirty tricks.

[Ara]

Happy Birthday, Katherine.

Perhaps many East Coast readers have gone to sleep. What a dramatic reversal this is becoming! I turned off the boob tube, discourged about Missouri, Montana, Arizona, Virginia, and so forth.

And then I get a call an hour later saying perhaps the Dems can take the Senate!

People: consider Bush's reserves for coping with adversity. How does he handle this? His style for six years has been to (1) push his will through and (2) hide his head in the sands of denial. A kind of bully.

Both might be untenable from this day on.

[J. Michael Neal]

Andrew Sullivan is (for once) right. It's Kool & the Gang time.

[Gromit]

Looks like Webb's lead is widening. He's up to a 12,000 vote margin according to NPR. If I've done the math right, that would put him just over half a percentage point ahead. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to sleep tonight.

[KCinDC]

Both cnn.com and the Virginia site have Webb's lead still less than 8,000 votes, but Schumer was on NPR a while ago saying he didn't expect the gap to remain less than 0.5%.

[Bruce Baugh]

OCSteve: As a junior doomsayer 1st class, I will say that I'm very happy and definitely surprised by the preliminary results. There's still the question of what results will be challenged and how recounts will go, and room for lots of vileness there...but the results we're seeing now seem to match the recent months' polls pretty well. I have no doubt that there is monkey business to expose and (I would hope) nail, and that while the worst and deepest will be Republican, there are Democratic malefactors to get too. I would be happy to see a lot of vote-riggers' heads on pikes, not that I expect to (but I'm willing to be surprised there, too).

I'd sum up the results as I've seen them so far about like this: Despite inexcusably widespread incompetence and corruption, a basically representative election took place.

[Ara]

Interesting challenge now for the lefty blogosphere. First chance we'll get at monitoring a Democratic Congress rather than carping at incumbents.

I hope we make good use of the opportunity.

The country could really use some good government right now.

[Ara]

Ouch, Montana is tight.

[CharleyCarp]

Happy Birthday, K. We're all so happy to share in your present!

[Jesurgislac]

OCSteve: Well the night is early Jes, but the GOP seems to be getting shellacked.

Yeah, it does, doesn't it?

I am looking up crow recipes to figure out ways of turning them vegetarian.

With a happy little grin on my face.

[Slartibartfast]

Think of this: Henry Waxman can hold hearings.

It's a relief that finally Waxman will be able to spend a few hundred thousand hours and several hundred Congressional hours to determine, once and for all, that President Bush spent $150 more to hop to a carrier on a jet instead of by helicopter.

[Jesurgislac]

It's a relief that finally Waxman will be able to spend a few hundred thousand hours and several hundred Congressional hours to determine, once and for all, that President Bush spent $150 more to hop to a carrier on a jet instead of by helicopter.

W00t! The first right-wing spin that Bush never did anything really bad his first six years in office! *rubs hands* Thanks, Slart. With any luck at all, I can now look forward to two years of you sulking about Speaker Pelosi and her subpoena powers... ;-)

*sends you a virtual slice of crow pie*

[Slartibartfast]

I'm not seeing too much mention of the gay-marriage-ban amendments passed in more than one state; anyone got the up and up on that? Looks to me as if close to half a dozen states passed measures banning same-sex marriage.

[Slartibartfast]

I can now look forward to two years of you sulking about Speaker Pelosi and her subpoena powers

Looking forward, rather, to just what Democrats will do with their newfound power. As for Waxman, it's one of the things he complained most vocally about, so I think it's fair to consider where his priorities might be.

Not sure where the crow comes in...did I at some point predict a Republican victory, or vote for one?

[Jesurgislac]

Looking forward, rather, to just what Democrats will do with their newfound power.

Exactly. I look at what Speaker Pelosi promises to get done in the first hundred hours, and I swear to you, I kvell. If nothing else - and I don't doubt Bush's veto pen will be busy, busy, busy (he may even have to cut down on his vacations) finally, if Democratic representatives have the majority in the House and are prepared to go to work, investigations can happen. No more casually sweeping the dirt under the carpet. Did you know that a Republican House of Representatives spent about ten times more hours investigating Clinton's Christmas card list than was spent investigating Abu Ghraib?

Not sure where the crow comes in...did I at some point predict a Republican victory, or vote for one?

Yes, frequently. Is this a new spin that we're now to forget you were a loyal Republican? Slartibartfast voted for Eurasia: Slartibartfast has always voted for Eurasia. ;-)

[Slartibartfast]

If nothing else - and I don't doubt Bush's veto pen will be busy, busy, busy

That's something to look forward to; it's been rather unbusy the last six years.

Yes, frequently.

Well, then an example or two ought to be rather simple to find. Have at it. Good luck; you're going to need it.

[OCSteve]

Congratulations Democrats and happy B-day Katherine!

I wish that the Senate wasn’t still up in the air… I hereby go on record as opposing the Republicans mounting any legal challenges, absent very clear evidence of malfeasance. It was obvious to me by bedtime that most of the country wants a change. That’s how it works here, so let’s just move forward.

The people have spoken. Now you have 2 years to convince me I could vote for a D president :)

Oh, and the Lieberman thing? Sweeeeet.

[Jesurgislac]

Well, then an example or two ought to be rather simple to find. Have at it. Good luck; you're going to need it.

Ah, Slarti1984fast. Okay, have it your way. You're a Democrat now, and you were always a Democrat. Anything I think I might have read from you any time in the past four years or so indicating that you're actually a Republican and want to see Republicans in power was just my wrong thinking. Minitrue will fix that for you.

[liberal japonicus]

Jes, be careful not to ruin Katherine's birthday, especially after all of the work that went into getting her this present.

[Steward Beta]

The country could really use some good government right now.

And the first step in that process should be oversight, investigations, subpoena's and impeachment.

Oh, and the Lieberman thing? Sweeeeet.

And every Republican under forty who voted for him should be drafted and sent to Iraq to clean up the mess.

[Jesurgislac]

lj: be careful not to ruin Katherine's birthday, especially after all of the work that went into getting her this present

What? Slarti1984fast wants it to be known he's always been a Democrat and we should never think he's ever supported the Republicans: I think that's actually a quite splendid birthday present, and I'm happy to go along.

[Slartibartfast]

You're a Democrat now, and you were always a Democrat.

I see you're committed to living in A Separate Reality. Well, don't let me deter you; continue simply making things up.

[OCSteve]

I’ll give you a short roundup of the right-o-sphere this morning (so you don’t have to go there):

Hugh Hewitt is losing his mind. It’s all McCain and Frist’s fault. “Senator Santorum is now available for a seat on the SCOTUS should one become available.” I wouldn’t have thought him to be a big drinker…

MM – “Conservatism did not lose” because we won on some ballot initiatives:
“Property rights initiatives limiting eminent domain won big. MCRI, the anti-racial preference measure, passed resoundingly. Congressman Tom Tancredo, the GOP's leading warrior against illegal immigration--opposed by both the open-borders Left and the open-borders White House--won a fifth term handily. Gay marriage bans won approval in 3 states. And as of this writing, the oil tax initiative, Prop. 87--backed by deep-pocketed Hollywood libs, is trailing badly in California.”

The Powerline guys:
Mostly straight and level. Still holding out hope for the Senate.

The Corner:
Mona Charen: “The terrorists turned the Spanish election by the deft placement of a few bombs days before an election. They turned ours by killing 100 soldiers in Iraq in one month. (I know, it’s more complicated than that, but that’s how our enemies will interpret it.) That American voters would send such a message is deeply dismaying.”

John Miller: “Something tells me that news editors will ice all the voter fraud stories they had reporters working on. I can hear the anchors now: "The machines worked better than expected!" "Despite concerns, there were no major irregularities." Etc.”

Goldberg: “The American people embraced the party of cut and run — oops, sorry "responsible redeployment" — during a war. That's really, really, really bad. The Dems can't do too much else to screw things up between now and '08 when the voters and the GOP will get a do-over. But, on the war(s) — still the most important issue — this is just a terrible, terrible message. It needn't be if the Dems act like grown-ups. But who around here wants to stake everything on that possibility?”

John Miller: “The GOP loss of the House and possibly the Senate may provide a boost to the next Republican presidential candidate: It will give him something in Washington to run against.”

James Robbins: “My guess is that any high ranking official at DOD who was around in 2003 is going to be spending most of the time getting ready for hearings, investigations, maybe worse. The more recent appointees at the top four or so levels may avoid the worst of it, though they too will be kept busy. But those on hand for the Iraq invasion are going to be facing non-stop Congressional interrogations. I suppose we'll see an exodus from the Building shortly.”

K-Lo: “Now that it's past midnight, I begin my Santorum for SecDef campaign.”

TKS: “I think the Democrats have inferior policies. But the country chose 'em; now they get to see how they work.”

No apparent suicides anyway…

LGF: “With the House in Democrat control, we can expect to see flying subpoenas and impeachment hearings, and big parties across the Middle East.”

Captain Ed is the most forthright:
“I don't think anyone can honestly look at the results tonight and say that we saw anything less than a trip to the woodshed for the Republicans.”

“However, in terms of policy at least, the American people have spoken. The majority endorsed these views, and now we have to see them play out. We can certainly criticize it -- and we will -- but we have to respect the voice of the American electorate. They wanted a different direction, and now they have to experience its consequences.”

Sore losers are we? A general feeling of “this what the people wanted now they will have to live with it”

[liberal japonicus]

Katherine might have preferred Ford in Tennessee, or maybe Lamont.

[Slartibartfast]

I, for one, welcome our new Democratic overlords.

[Slartibartfast]

Oh, and just in case there are other people besides Jesurgislac who are confused on where I stand: I am still not a Democrat.

Congratulations to the Democrats, with my wishes that you use your new powers wisely.

And a belated happy birthday, Katherine.

[Jesurgislac]

Slarti: Oh, and just in case there are other people besides Jesurgislac who are confused on where I stand: I am still not a Democrat.

Ah. Just someone who's consistently opposed the Republicans and hoped for their defeat, always, always, always. Never done anything else. Right.

Unfortunately, I still have memories from the other leg of the Trousers of Time, Slarti, but I'm sure they'll fade as we move into this new reality.

[Dantheman]

Great night all around. Oddly enough, an exception seems to be the Philly suburbs, other than Weldon's loss. Gerlach and Fitzpatrick's races are still too close to call, and current results suggest Gerlach may survive. If one had predicted 3 months ago that the D's would only win 1 out of the 3 races here, I'd have thought there was no way they would take the House.

Happy B-day, Katherine.

[Slartibartfast]

Mescalito should always be treated with respect.

[ThirdGorchBro]

So the Senate is still up in the air. If Tester and Webb win, that will give the Dems 51 votes even without Lieberman, if I'm reading the numbers right.

Anyway, for today at least I'm wishing the Dems the best of luck over the next two years. I don't see how they could possibly do worse than the current crop of Republicans, although that's not saying much.

Happy birthday, Katherine!

[dutchmarbel]

for Jes:

[Jesurgislac]

3rdGB: If Tester and Webb win, that will give the Dems 51 votes even without Lieberman, if I'm reading the numbers right.

Which is fantastic, because honestly, if Lieberman was the swing vote, wouldn't he be unbearable? If he's not the swing vote, it will be interesting to see if he starts voting with the Democratic Senators if it appears that will do his career more good than continuing to vote Republican.

I don't see how they could possibly do worse than the current crop of Republicans, although that's not saying much.

*grin* That's for sure.

*birthday cake to Katherine*

[KCinDC]

Not sure what you mean about Lieberman, TGB. He's necessary for the 51. So Tester's and Webb's wins would set us up for the possible Lieberman backstab feared by some -- either caucusing with the Republicans or accepting an administration position and letting Gov. Rell appoint a Republican replacement. I think Lieberman is incredibly angry, and will be a much larger pain and Bush enabler than before, but I don't think he's crazy enough to do either of those things. Why would he want to be Secretary of Defense?

[Slartibartfast]

Right now it looks as if Allen and Webb are both going to win. Tester's ahead by 0.5% of the vote with 1% left to report, while Webb is ahead by 0.3% with 1% left to report.

[Gromit]

Wow. Did a Democratic incumbent lose anywhere? There are two GA house races that are still very close, with the D incumbents ahead by very close margins, but that's all I can see.

[lily]

Oh screw Goldberg. just two weeks or so ago he wrote the war off. His suggestion was to put it to a vote in iraq, knowing they'd vote to send us home. This is how it starts: first one, then another, then the whole Noise Machine chanting "We could have won but the Dems made us lose".

[cleek]

CNN has Tester up by 700+, with 99% reporting. wow, close.

[cleek]

Right now it looks as if Allen and Webb are both going to win.

will they do opposite weeks on-duty ?

[John Thullen]

Congratulations to all whom participate here who also put time and effort into this victory for the Democrats in the House ... and maybe the Senate.

Happy Birthday, Katherine!

Hilzoy, you've been a rock.

Me? I merely shoot my mouth off. But I counsel our new Democratic folks in Congress to act firmly, but with humility, and to fashion policy with your minds and hearts, rather than with your testosterone glands, your certainty synapses, and your bile ducts.

If you don't know something, call an expert, for crying out loud. The elections are over and we amateurs have had our say. If the expert turns out to be God, who seems to always turn out to be a bit of a demagogue, keep it to yourselves, because it's just not fair to the other experts.

And, look, keep your hands off the under-the-table-money, the teenaged pages, and if you absolutely must have an extramarital affair, can you at least have the good grace to get a private room?

You are a reflection of the electorate. I wouldn't dwell on it, though, if you plan to be able to get out of bed every morning.

If you encounter a swift-boater, a macaca howler, or a Barney fag malaproper-on-purpose, I give you permission to strike them down in their tracks, with prejudice.

Let your opponents attend all the meetings. They pay taxes, too, and with a little luck, they'll be paying more.

If someone hands you a napkin with a sketchy economic theory scrawled on it, sneeze a big blowzy one it, and send it to Larry Kudlow.

Don't screw up too badly, because DaveC and OCSteve's wife will come to us about it, and the voices in my head might agree with them. Not that they (the voices) would ever admit it.

I'm going for a run.

[KCinDC]

Gromit, it's looking like there'll be no Democratic losses for Senate, House, or governors' seats. Don't know the last time a party accomplished that, but it's been a very long while, if it's ever happened at all.

[Ugh]

If anyone cares, the DCCC shindig was interesting but generally unremarkable. Free booze, Pelosi looks better and sounds worse in person than on TV, didn't stay until Reid and Schumer showed up. People were pretty happy, of course.

If anyone wants to get in on a start up paper shredding company in the DC area for the next two months, give me a ring, I hear demand will be way up.

Oh, so do we bomb Iran before the end of the year?

[OCSteve]

because DaveC and OCSteve's wife will come to us about it

And trust me – you really really don’t want that (speaking just for my wife) ;)

[Bernard Yomtov]

I was sorry to see Ford lose in Tennessee. Despite some of the comments on CNN last night it is not a solid red state. It's also worth noting that, while no doubt he received overwhelming support from black voters, the state is only about 15% or so black, so got considerable white support.

The Republicans were a bit lucky here, in that Corker was the most moderate of the three primary candidates in their primary. Had he not been the nominee, and he had only a plurality in the primary, I think Ford would have won the election.

OK. Call me greedy.

[Slartibartfast]

Tester, rather. Obviously. Webb and Tester.

Coffee. Must...have...more...coffee.

[DaveC]

My wife and kids and in-laws are straight-tickets Dems.

A couple of premonitions: Haifa is a heap of rubble in 2008, and John Bolton still is not confirmed as UN ambassador by then.

[KCinDC]

Hmm:

"Now, one of the things is both parties have got a lot work to do," Snow said. "The president has got a very active agenda for the next two years and you're going to need both parties. There has to be a calculated decision by the Democrats."

Yeah, the Democrats better get right on the president's "very active agenda".

Dick Armey is on Diane Rehm warning the congressional Democrats against "irrational exuberance".

[matttbastard]

Wow, Katherine's younger than me?!

Happy birthday (big three-oh for me in April :-S)!

Re: election - Bill Bennett and JC Watts were on CNN last night trying to spin the victories of Casey and other 'conservative' Dems as an affirmation of the 'Evangelical' electorate's power (they also noted an exit poll that indicated 40% of Webb's support came from Evangelicals.) Further speculation centred around how the growing number of centrist/conservative Democratic representitives and senators would interact with the more 'liberal' leadership.

Thoughts?

[Jesurgislac]

Kind of in response to DaveC's comment, I did a swift scan through the kind of blogs I usually never look at (the right-wing ardent Bush supporter kind) and was reminded, sadly, that a large minority of political activists really sincerely believe the crap the Bush administration have been feeding them, that the Republican Party is strong on terrorism and sound on national security; even that the Bush tax cuts weren't targetted at the super-rich.

Now that the efforts to rig the elections this time have failed (I am still surprised/pleased at that: but I guess if enough people vote against the Republicans, it really is possible to reverse the Diebold effect) I hope that one of the issues for Democrats in the House and elsewhere will be working effectively to make the 2008 Presidential elections more honest than the 2000 or 2004.

[KCinDC]

In Louisiana (which has weird elections, with multiple Democrats and Republicans), William Jefferson, the money-in-the-freezer guy, has the plurality but only 30%, while other Democratic candidates combined have about 55%. So it looks like Carter (the second-place candidate, also a Democrat) might be able to knock him off in the runoff election.

[Bernard Yomtov]

CNN has Tester up by about 1800 with only Meagher County to come in. Meagher has a population of only about 2000, and is shown on the CNN map as not leaning heavily either way.

If all this is accurate, and who knows if it is, Tester is in excellent shape.

[Ugh]

Holy crap! This could be the most sensible things I've ever seen come out of Bizarro World.

[Bernard Yomtov]

Meagher County was 698-247 for Bush in 2004.

These Internets are really something.

[Gromit]

Holy crap! This could be the most sensible things I've ever seen come out of Bizarro World.

A legal challenge in VA would likely involve lifting a rock with a lot of ugly, squirming things on its underside. Not that this factors into the poster's calculus, necessarily. Just saying.

His and the commenters' apparent ignorance of Republicans' role in the ugliness of Florida 2000 is charming, though.

[KCinDC]

Things worked out better than I expected, and much better than I feared. My disappointments are Lamont's loss (which I had been expecting for weeks), the Virginia marriage amendment (which I had been expecting for months, until the last week when I started thinking it might fail), and a few horrible Republicans who managed to survive the wave (Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado is the main one).

[Ugh]

His and the commenters' apparent ignorance of Republicans' role in the ugliness of Florida 2000 is charming, though.

Yes, I thought about excepting that from my "sensible" comment.

He could also be laying the ground work for showing how reasonable he was when Allen was losing if the count turns around and Webb ends up behind.

Anyway, let's hope for a Webb/Tester sweep.

[Jesurgislac]

Ah, be fair. There are plenty of Americans who still believe George W. Bush won in Florida in 2000, and honestly aren't aware that Al Gore got the most votes. If you really think Bush won (and after all, no US media outlet reported the facts) that would color your view of how the election was decided.

[Charles Bird]

Yesterday's results can be laid squarely on Bush and, to a much lesser degree, Hastert. If they had only listened to me and actually governed as conservatives, communicated as conservatives and prosecuted Iraq as conservatives, then Republicans wouldn't be where they are today. As it is now, we're a long way from the days of Reagan, both chronologically and philosophically.

Firing Rumsfeld now is probably too little too late, but it still needs to be done. After Bush, he is the lead architect of the Iraq mess, under-manning the operation, failing to adjust quickly enough and failing to launch a bona fide counter-insurgency campaign.

The Republican House leadership and the biggest-spending appropriators need to be swept out. Hastert has been a complete bonehead in this election cycle, and he should be nowhere near any positions that require leadership.

If House Republicans think that they're only out in the wilderness for two years, they've got another thing coming. Bush's failing presidency is going to keep dragging them down, and Senate prospects don't look much better.

As for Bush, it looks like he's going to muddle through his last two years, without making the necessary changes to help his country, his administration or his party. Bush demanded loyalty and he got it. Too bad he didn't add competence and conservative principles to that loyalty package. It might've saved him from going down in the books as a third-rate president, which is where I think he's going to end up.

If we're going to get back, it'll have to be through the likes of McCain, Guiliani, Schwarzenegger and the principled conservative wing of the party. Not Bush. The Democratic leadership will help in this as well, particularly when they start outlining their "solutions" to things. The American public won't be able to stomach much of Pelosi's unfiltered liberalism, and I don't think she'll be able to tamp it down for long. I also predict that the Dems won't be able to help themselves by overplaying the vengeance card, which won't go over well.

[LizardBreath]

Schwarzenegger, to you, represents the conservative wing of the Republican party?

[Jesurgislac]

The American public won't be able to stomach much of Pelosi's unfiltered liberalism, and I don't think she'll be able to tamp it down for long.

According to polls, Nancy Pelosi is mainstream. You may not be able to stomach much of the American public's unfiltered liberalism, but that is supposed to be what democracy is all about...

[KCinDC]

Treating the Republicans exactly as they treated the Democratic minority would presumably count as "overplaying the vengeance card"? I agree that's going to be a hard temptation to resist. But the public doesn't really care about that, apparently -- then again, the Republicans are better about getting their outrage into the media, so probably the usual IOKIYAR rules will apply.

[Edward_]

The Democrats don't have to seek revenge on the Republicans...all they have to do is run the House the way it was designed to be run and it will seem like they're seeking revenge to the administration. In other words, oversight, legislation, and investigations of suspicious activity. That's their job, and that's all it will take to make Bush and Co. feel like they're in hell.

My hope for the Democrats is that they simply do their jobs.

[dmbeaster]

It's a relief that finally Waxman will be able to spend a few hundred thousand hours and several hundred Congressional hours to determine, once and for all, that President Bush spent $150 more to hop to a carrier on a jet instead of by helicopter.

This attitudes exemplifies why your Republican heroes refuse to do oversight on countless examples of graft and theft -- the best example is the billions being blown in Iraq for which the Republcians set up systems that deliberately block oversight and accountability. They are too busy worrying about alleged bogus oversight to actual believe in doing it at all.

In other words, ignore historically high levels of graft while whining about potential excesses by Waxman, which by the way have not happened in the past and for which there is no basis other than prejudice to assume it will happen in the future.

[Slartibartfast]

Mellow greetings, Edward; hope you're doing well.

[Edward_]

hi Slarti,

well, but exhausted...glad to "see" you here though.