Still More Sweden-Blogging

by hilzoy

Sweden just turned the Social Democrats out of office:

"Sveriges nye statsminister heter Fredrik Reinfeldt. ”Svenska folket har röstat fram en alliansregering”, utropade moderatledaren inför jublande partimedlemmar sent i går kväll. Göran Persson avgår som statsminister och ledare för socialdemokraterna.

Strax före klockan elva i går kväll sträckte Fredrik Reinfeldt armarna i luften på valvakan på Nalen i Stockholm.

– De nya moderaterna är 2006 års val största valsegrare! utropade moderatledaren.

När rösterna vid midnatt hade räknats i 5768 av de 5783 valdistrikten stod det klart att de borgerliga tar hem en historisk seger i riksdagsvalet. Men de vinner med knapp marginal. Alliansen får 48,1 procent av rösterna, medan socialdemokraterna, miljöpartiet och vänsterpartiet tillsammans landar på 46,2 procent. Detta ger de borgerliga partierna sju mandats övervikt i riksdagen."

Oops! Sorry about that. What I meant to say was:

"Sweden swept away 12 years of center-left government on Sunday, voting to reject its longtime prime minister, Goran Persson, in favor of a conservative candidate who has pledged to revise the Swedish welfare state.

With almost all the votes counted by 11 p.m., three hours after the polls closed, the right-of-center coalition led by the leader of the Moderate Party, Fredrik Reinfeldt, had taken 48.1 percent of the vote, compared with 46.2 percent for the Social Democrats and their left-of-center allies."

This will probably be less of a change than it might seem, as far as policy is concerned:

"But in a country that likes stability, Mr. Reinfeldt has been at pains to cast his plans as a fine-tuning, rather than a full-scale overhaul, of Sweden’s economic model. “The Nordic welfare model is in many aspects a good model,” he said as he campaigned Sunday, “but it needs more of a choice for individuals.” (...)

In the previous election four years ago, Mr. Reinfeldt’s party was trounced at the polls when it ran on a traditional platform of big tax cuts and deep reductions in social security benefits. When he became party leader, Mr. Reinfeldt acknowledged that such a stance was unlikely to win any elections in a country that is essentially happy with its underlying big-government, high-tax system.

So he moved the party to the center and settled on unemployment as an issue on which the government would be particularly vulnerable."

Or as I said a few weeks ago:

"The debate between the left and right seems to be much less about what programs the government should pay for than about the best ways of implementing those programs. People think about questions like: should the government run all hospitals, or should private hospitals compete with public ones while receiving full public reimbursement for medical care? This is a debate that takes place, in the US, on the left: most liberals support some sort of national health insurance, but we divide about which particular version is best."

(For anyone interested in the debate over Swedish unemployment numbers, Dean Baker has a good comment. I asked people about it while I was over there; the consensus seemed to be that after decades of having very low unemployment, Sweden had morphed into a more standard European country, in that respect, during the mid-90s.)

If I had to guess -- and I shouldn't really, I don't know enough -- I'd say that the real effect will be to get the Social Democrats to ask themselves some tough and interesting questions. And asking oneself tough and interesting questions is always a good thing.

Comments

[SomeOtherDude]

For the kids:

">http://www.oebook.com/{65684FC1-F432-4950-80C4-812F557EE022}.htm"> Nordic.Social.Policy.Changing.Welfare.States

Scandinavian Welfare Policy provides new insights into the evolution of welfare state measures by focusing on developments in the Nordic welfare states - Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark - during the past decade. Including chapters from over twenty contributors, this comparative work examines the changed preconditions of welfare policies, analyzes changes in welfare measures, investigates developments in the welfare of the people, and looks at developments in public support for the welfare states. Scandinavian Welfare Policy will provide a new understanding of Northern European welfare and will be of interest to students of social policy, sociology and welfare studies as well as for academics, policy makers and analysts in social policy.

[dutchmarbel]

a fistful of euros has an extensive blogpost about Sweden, and debunks the article in the Economist about Sweden.

[NZPhil]

One thing that has captured media interest here in NZ about the Swedish election is the religious group the Exclusive Brethren being caught (again) bankrolling anonymous advertising and pamphlets. The Brethren did the same thing over here last year (and got caught) promoting the right wing National party anonymously and are currently embroiled in allegations involving a whispering campaign against our Prime Minister's husband. The Brethren were also caught out doing the same thing in Australia, targetting the Green Party in Tasmania if I recall correctly.

[Dan K]

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. The conservative party - tellingly labelling themselves as the new moderates - did the right (pun not intended) thing this year and revamped themselves as a social democratic party. So basically we have seven social democratic parties - four of them virtually indistinguishable, one slightly trotskyist, one faith-based, and one green. Did I mentioned that Swedish politics is incredibly boring? Anyway, we took a long hard look at the old Fat One - that'll be former PM Göran Persson - and decided that ten years were enough and voted in the young Fat One, Fredrik Reinfeldt. If history repeats itself, or rhymes, he lasts one term, then we have 8-12 years again with the real social democrats. Oh well.

[liberal japonicus]

I, myself, see a conspiracy. The conservatives are obviously attacking us thru our weak Swedish underbelly.

[Harald Korneliussen]

A lot of young swedes come here across the border to seek employment as unskilled laborers, generally seasonal. There's a lot more of it here, and it's better paid.