by hilzoy
Does this count?
"Under the command of President Bush's two senior political advisers, the White House rolled out a plan this weekend to contain the political damage from the administration's response to Hurricane Katrina.It orchestrated visits by cabinet members to the region, leading up to an extraordinary return visit by Mr. Bush planned for Monday, directed administration officials not to respond to attacks from Democrats on the relief efforts, and sought to move the blame for the slow response to Louisiana state officials, according to Republicans familiar with the White House plan.
The effort is being directed by Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, and his communications director, Dan Bartlett. It began late last week after Congressional Republicans called White House officials to register alarm about what they saw as a feeble response by Mr. Bush to the hurricane, according to Republican Congressional aides. (...)
One Republican with knowledge of the effort said that Mr. Rove had told administration officials not to respond to Democratic attacks on Mr. Bush's handling of the hurricane in the belief that the president was in a weak moment and that the administration should not appear to be seen now as being blatantly political. As with others in the party, this Republican would discuss the deliberations only on condition of anonymity because of keen White House sensitivity about how the administration and its strategy would be perceived.
In a reflection of what has long been a hallmark of Mr. Rove's tough political style, the administration is also working to shift the blame away from the White House and toward officials of New Orleans and Louisiana who, as it happens, are Democrats."
How about this?
"But perhaps the greatest disappointment stands at the breached 17th Street levee. Touring this critical site yesterday with the President, I saw what I believed to be a real and significant effort to get a handle on a major cause of this catastrophe. Flying over this critical spot again this morning, less than 24 hours later, it became apparent that yesterday we witnessed a hastily prepared stage set for a Presidential photo opportunity; and the desperately needed resources we saw were this morning reduced to a single, lonely piece of equipment. "
Or this?
"There was a striking dicrepancy between the CNN International report on the Bush visit to the New Orleans disaster zone, yesterday, and reports of the same event by German TV.ZDF News reported that the president's visit was a completely staged event. Their crew witnessed how the open air food distribution point Bush visited in front of the cameras was torn down immediately after the president and the herd of 'news people' had left and that others which were allegedly being set up were abandoned at the same time.
The people in the area were once again left to fend for themselves, said ZDF."
Just trying to get clear on the standards here.
*** UPDATE ***
Rivka at Respectful of Otters corrects the last story. Apparently, what German TV claimed was staged was at Biloxi, not New Orleans. Translation of the relevant bit of the ZDF News broadcast, from RoO, with my italics:
"We talked to people here after the visit: one woman said a symbolic visit like that was better than none at all, and it was good that the President was showing his face there and looking at the situation up-close. Others tended to react with desperation. One woman burst into tears and said, full of rage, that the President shouldn't come here, he should finally see to it that help comes. All of the people, his whole entourage, these cars, they should be loaded up with supplies and not with bodyguards, and he shouldn't play the good samaritan here, and a staged visit like this doesn't help. And it actually was the case that all of a sudden this morning helper personnel showed up here, people who cleared away the rubble, who went through the houses in search of bodies, but exclusively along the route where the President traveled. Two hours ago the President left Biloxi again, and all of the helper personnel along with him.Anchor: We know that President Bush promised quick help. Can that be felt where you are? For example, is there clean water and food?
CR: There's nothing here at all. Aside from what was cleared aside by the helper personnel this morning, the rubble is lying all over the street exactly as it was several days ago after the storm. There are no reasonable provisions; there's an emergency medical station and otherwise nothing. There is a stench of decomposition across the entire city. There are bodies that haven't been covered up in the buildings. Everything has been reduced to rubble, and help--from what we can see here and what others from other cities have also said--isn't coming."
There would be no reason to have FEMA if FEMA wasn't supposed to help state and local governments with major projects like evacuations. I'm really stunned that this role would even be questioned. If fact it is so obviously a Federal responsiblity that there might not be a site that says FEMA does evacuations for the same reason that there is not likely to be a site that says "during the day the sky is often blue.".
To me the bottom line is that Bush had a responisibity to put a competent person in charge of FEMA, and he failed to do it. FEMA's screwups flow from the bad appointment. The levee breakage isn't, at least to my knowledge, clearly Bush's fault--partly it's the fault of administration decisions, but there are other decisions over many many years that contributed. The failure to get the people out before the storm appears to be mostly FEMA's fault, for not completing their plans as sited above. Local authorities could plan ways to get people out of town but the logistics of where to take them and how they are to be sustained out of town is beyond the scope of a mayor or city concil, so a pre-storm evacuation by bus would have to planned by the state or the Feds.
The biggest screwup is the delay in rescuing people who had found their way to high ground. I really can't see how FEMA and Bush can dodge the responisbility for that.
Posted by: lily | September 05, 2005 at 11:12 PM
At risk of not Not Properly Laying The Blame, I'd like to observe that if I live somewhere, particularly an entire region, which is, we fear, likely to be relatively largely wiped out and made unlivable in 48 hours, I'd like my city government, my state government, and the federal government to all do the utmost in their power to get everyone in the region, including me, out of here.
If any of the three screw up, I will hold them faulty, and I'm really not interested in the question of which of the three, per se, has "primary" responsibility, because my perspective is that the responsibility to do what is within their power should be primary for all.
Questions about who has what power are another matter.
Posted by: Gary Farber | September 05, 2005 at 11:14 PM
Slarti:
First, " You're looking at single seasons. I'm thinking that trends are not made of single seasons."
but from Anarch's data, it would appear that if you took the decade 1995-2005, there are only two years (97 and 99) that aren't in the top 13.
Secondly, I don't know if you read RealClimate, but I'd advise you to check out that post for the actual theory on how "anthropogenic forcing" can affect the climate.
Quoting the whole thing would be pointless, but that's what links are for. In any event, I would really think twice before writing something that put me on the fingers-in-ears side of the "Is Global Climate Change Real?" debate.
Posted by: McDuff | September 05, 2005 at 11:15 PM
"You are, I think, driving people away."
Is that via pre-cognition, or are the lurkers supporting you in e-mail?
Posted by: Gary Farber | September 05, 2005 at 11:18 PM
Meanwhile, demonstrating that the apple didn't fall too far from the tree, the repugnant Barbara Bush weighs in with some words of unparalleled empathy. Said she of the refugees in the Houston Astrodome:
"And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway, so this--this (she chuckles slightly) is working very well for them."
Monstrous woman.
Posted by: Catsy | September 05, 2005 at 11:24 PM
Oh, indeed: a fitting Agrippina for our own little Nero.
Posted by: CaseyL | September 05, 2005 at 11:27 PM
Sheesh. At the opposite end of the spectrum from Barbara Bush...
Posted by: Katherine | September 05, 2005 at 11:27 PM
Slartibartfast, I apologize for lumping you in with those federal officials actually responsible for the deaths of our fellow citizens.
Posted by: ken | September 05, 2005 at 11:27 PM
For me, it comes down to this. The current administration is willing to spend countless hours finessing language and finding legal ways to torture potentially innocent people for iffy military intel. On the other hand, it believes the Federal government is sadly -- tragically! -- bound by the fine letter of the law to let its own citizens die in a sewage-infested hellhole.
Imagine how many lives might've been saved if such daring legal know-how had been applied in this case.
Posted by: Jeff Eaton | September 05, 2005 at 11:54 PM
First, about ken's comment: consider me. I write long answers to questions (this will be one), that have sub-parts a, b, c, etc; long parenthetical remarks on unrelated topics like Turkish pronunciation, ludicrous examples, and so on. If one could assume that I would behave exactly the same way in an emergency as I behave on this blog, then any of you might say: hilzoy, in the time it takes you to answer a simple question, hundreds of people could drown. Maybe thousands. -- But so what? There's no reason at all to make the crucial assumption.
As it happens, I have one of two reactions in crises: either I am efficient and level-headed (and terse), or my brain shuts down and I can hardly speak, let alone do anything useful. But I never act the way I act here.
About the law: here is the section of the Homeland Security Act laying out FEMA's responsibilities. It includes the following responsibilities:
(Note explicit reference to response plan, and explicit endorsement of FEMA's lead role.)
So, you might ask, what is the law referred to in the first bit? It's here. In this chapter, the basic laws governing emergency response are laid out. They include: definitions :
Procedures:
(Note: others have already linked to Larry Johnson's version of Gov. Blanco's request pursuant to this law; it's on the LA state web site here. I can't find the text of the President's declarations just now, but Scott McClellan describes them here. So this procedure was followed, and its requirements satisfied.)
Powers:
So I think it's pretty safe to say that when the President declares an emergency, the NRP goes into effect, and FEMA leads the emergency response, including the coordination of federal and state agencies.
Posted by: hilzoy | September 05, 2005 at 11:58 PM
I hope it goes without saying that New Orleans is in fact equipped with an evacuation plan (not to mention an catastrophic disaster plan), and that the above doesn't say anything at all about FEMA being responsible for making sure that New Orleans adheres to it.
God forbid we should identify exactly what screwups were committed; the consequences for even trying can be pretty severe.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:02 AM
(ken: cross-posted with you. Thanks.)
If anyone is interested in looking up laws themselves, the easiest way I've found is to use the Table of Contents here, since for some reason search engines don't seem to work for me, as far as the US Code is concerned. The code is handily arranged by topics, so it's usually possible to find what you're looking for without undue effort.
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 12:03 AM
Slart, it is called the Stafford Act and it is cited in the letter that the Governor of LA wrote to Bush via FEMA on August 28, requesting assistance, just like she was obliged to do under the Stafford Act. 42 U.S.C. ss5121-5260. see also regs implementing same at 44 C.F.R 206. And if you want more information than that my charges for legal work are $200 hour, as I am an attorney w/ almost 30 years experience. Let me know and I'd be happy to do the research for you.
Posted by: hrc | September 06, 2005 at 12:17 AM
I hope it goes without saying that New Orleans is in fact equipped with an evacuation plan (not to mention an catastrophic disaster plan), and that the above doesn't say anything at all about FEMA being responsible for making sure that New Orleans adheres to it.
When FEMA previously wargamed the scenario of a powerful hurricane striking New Orleans, how many people did they estimate would still be in the city after such an evacuation plan was put into action? Did FEMA ensure that emergency response professionals were prepared for that situation? You might also want to look up the word federal. It is not clear from your post that you understand what it means in the context it is being used in.
Posted by: felixrayman | September 06, 2005 at 12:26 AM
Slarti: if you don't feel like paying hrc's fees, the Stafford Act is what I cited (not the first law cite, I think, but the others.)
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 12:27 AM
Shockingly, I have in fact heard of the Stafford Act. Also shockingly, I've read pretty much all of it, as hilzoy was kind enough to have left links to it above.
Yes, the Governor did request emergency assistance from the federal government. Believe it or not, I was actually aware of this before you (or, earlier, hilzoy) mentioned it on this thread. What this request has to do with FEMA directing evacuation, though, I have no idea.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:27 AM
Slart, I think you are a pretty smart guy.
Did you even read the links you gave. New Orleans did not have the resources to evacuate the estimated 140,000 people without transportation. Their plan, such as it was, was to open the superdome as the refuge of last resort and to provide bus transportation to it before any hurricane hit. That is what they said, that is what they did.
Where exactly is the screwup? The made the plans based upon the resources they had.
Do you make plans to vacation for a week at the Ritz Carlton when you only have enough money to pay for a single night at Motel 6?
Posted by: ken | September 06, 2005 at 12:27 AM
hilzoy, cross :)
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:28 AM
So I think it's pretty safe to say that when the President declares an emergency, the NRP goes into effect, and FEMA leads the emergency response, including the coordination of federal and state agencies.
The complicated part is that the NRP explicitly lays out powers according to Federal, State, and local/tribal jurisdiction. This explication, however, is more or less moot in the event of an INS wherein the State or local authorities are "overwhelmed", under which I think the coordination devolves as described above but it's not entirely clear. Can anyone help me out here?
Posted by: Anarch | September 06, 2005 at 12:34 AM
In re hurricance recording prior to the weather service, this implies pretty strongly that what's changed of late is incidence of landfall, not frequency or strength of hurricanes.
Posted by: Anarch | September 06, 2005 at 12:38 AM
So you're saying that even though they had an evacuation plan, they knew they couldn't execute it. Interesting. You'd think that someone would have mentioned that beforehand, and requested assistance.
Anarch, I read the whole thing and the language seems to be couched in terms of assistance, with even the direct (as opposed to financial) assistance being done at the direction of the local and state authorities. But what do I know?
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:41 AM
To the extent that state laws or local plans contradict federal statute, federal statutes pre-empt. I find the argument that the President had his hands tied legally utterly implausible.
As far as NOLA's lack of an evacuation plan:
they made it sound like the main Red Cross shelters were not far away, just up I-10. I think it should have been possible to give dibs at those shelters to those relying on buses, but who knows if it really was. I agree that without shelter lined up in advance, you don't just start packing buses and sending them onto the roads. Safer in the Superdome than the interstate.
I also don't see the inadequacy of the evacuation plan as solely the local government's failure. The state and federal authorities were well aware. If it was a question of money--and it sounds like it was--they should have been able to get it from the feds. There is no city in the United States that needed an evacuation plan like New Orleans did. In many cases it would be stupid and not cost effective, but the hurricane-hits-NOLA was known to be THE most realistic scenario for more or less losing a U.S. city--and unlike the other nightmare scenarios, the giant California earthquakes and the nuclear attacks on NY or DC, there is advance warning. If we can afford the Don Young bridge to nowhere and the various luxurious amenities for Homeland Security in Wyoming and North Dakota, we can afford some damn buses for this. And even if THAT were not possible FEMA had ample notice that a lot of people were going to be left behind, that the levees might break, and that things could get very bad very quickly for a whole lot of people. So while I think the city and state could havedone much better, especially on the evacuation front, it doesn't really exonerate the administration or FEMA to me.
Posted by: Katherine | September 06, 2005 at 12:41 AM
I haven't been back to this thread for a few hours, but I'm really unhappy that a few posters have turned Slartibartfast into a cardboard stand-in for (whatever). Enough is not known that a little politely phrased second-guessing from a regular deserves better treatment.
The main reason I read ObWi is that it tries really hard not to be partisan. Slartibartfast was asking devil's advocate questions of a consensus that was rapidly forming among more liberal commentors. I suspect that one of the reasons that his comments have become more terse and cryptic is that he feels that commentors here will leap all over any extended and more committed comment.
I'm sure Slartibartfast can defend himself, but I'd like to plead to my fellow liberals to remember why they're here rather than at the avowedly Democratic sites. Even if your only goal is to shame and smash Republicans of any stripe, driving Republicans/conservatives away from this site will hardly be effective: they will simply go elsewhere, convinced that there's no use arguing with leftists.
Posted by: Jackmormon | September 06, 2005 at 12:41 AM
And lo, Slartibartfast defends himself. I retire, hoping for reality-based comity.
Posted by: Jackmormon | September 06, 2005 at 12:43 AM
Anarch: I'm working now not from the NRP, but from the implementing regs which hrc was kind enough to direct us to. (hrc: if you ever need an ethics consult, just ask.) Here is the table of contents for 44 C.F.R 206. In it we find:
this:
Then this:
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 12:43 AM
Wow. I have to say I didn't expect that, Jackmormon. I thank you, and affirm that you're pretty much dead on.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:46 AM
Anarch: on p. 4 of the NRP, an example of an 'Incident of National Significance' is a major disaster or emergency as defined under the Stafford Act, which Katrina is. So I think it counts.
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 12:49 AM
Here it is! I knew I'd seen this somewhere, and finally found it:
"Pursuant to 44 CFR ? 206.35, I have determined that this incident is of such severity and magnitude that effective response is beyond the capabilities of the State and affected local governments, and that supplementary Federal assistance is necessary to save lives, protect property, public health, and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a disaster. I am specifically requesting emergency protective measures, direct Federal Assistance, Individual and Household Program (IHP) assistance, Special Needs Program assistance, and debris removal.
- From Gov. Blanco's letter of August 26, 2005, in which she declared a state of emergency and requested Federal assistance.
So. The state Governor makes a formal declaration of a state of emergency, and formally asks for Federal assistance, and cites the Federal law that pertains to same.
How is it possible that, that being done, there is any doubt that the Federal goverment is required to, in fact, assist?
Is there some odd little gap in the law perhaps? One that states the declaration of emergency and request for Federal assistance, even if done according to the relevant Federal law, doesn't actually count unless the Federal government invokes some other CFR?
Is requesting disaster assistance from the Federal Government, in other words, kind of like playing Simon Says?
Maybe Slarti can answer this question.
Posted by: CaseyL | September 06, 2005 at 12:51 AM
A little reading upthread might have saved you some work. Here's the original, just in case.
With cleanup? With unemployment assistance? I'm sorry, exactly what part of the letter do you need help with? Maybe you can help me, in turn, with the location of those parts of the letter that are salient to your point.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:58 AM
Jackmormon- I can't speak for everyone, but I get angry when Slarti gets like this. Longer comments from him would be much less likely to get me upset.
Slarti- Despite repeatedly asking for evidence you seem to not be willing to provide it yourself.
Where is your evidence that Nagin didn't follow the N.O. evacuation plan. Where is your evidence that the evacuation failed?
I ask because I have already said the plan was successful.
from Brad Delong's site:
City, state and federal emergency officials are preparing to give the poorest of New Orleans' poor a historically blunt message: In the event of a major hurricane, you're on your own. In scripted appearances being recorded now, officials such as Mayor Ray Nagin, local Red Cross Executive Director Kay Wilkins and City Council President Oliver Thomas drive home the word that the city does not have the resources to move out of harm's way an estimated 134,000 people without transportation.
In the video, made by the anti-poverty agency Total Community Action, they urge those people to make arrangements now by finding their own ways to leave the city in the event of an evacuation. "You're responsible for your safety, and you should be responsible for the person next to you," Wilkins said in an interview. "If you have some room to get that person out of town, the Red Cross will have a space for that person outside the area. We can help you. "But we don't have the transportation."
Officials are recording the evacuation message even as recent research by the University of New Orleans indicated that as many as 60 percent of the residents of most southeast Louisiana parishes would remain in their homes in the event of a Category 3 hurricane. Their message will be distributed on hundreds of DVDs across the city. The DVDs' basic get-out-of-town message applies to all audiences, but the it is especially targeted to scores of churches and other groups heavily concentrated in Central City and other vulnerable, low-income neighborhoods, said the Rev. Marshall Truehill, head of Total Community Action. "The primary message is that eachperson is primarilyresponsibleforthemselves, for their own family and friends," Truehill said.
In addition to the plea from Nagin, Thomas and Wilkins, video exhortations to make evacuation plans come from representatives of State Police and the National Weather Service, and from local officials such as Sen. Ann Duplessis, D-New Orleans, and State Rep. Arthur Morrell, D-New Orleans, said Allan Katz, whose advertising company is coordinating officials' scripts and doing the recording. The speakers explain what to bring and what to leave behind. They advise viewers to bring personal medicines and critical legal documents, and tell them how to create a family communication plan. Even a representative of the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals weighs in with a message on how to make the best arrangements for pets left behind.
Production likely will continue through August. Officials want to get the DVDs into the hands of pastors and community leaders as hurricane season reaches its height in September, Katz said.
Believing that the low-lying city is too dangerous a place to shelter refugees, the Red Cross positioned its storm shelters on higher ground north of Interstate 10 several years ago. It dropped plans to care for storm victims in schools or other institutions in town. Truehill, Wilkins and others said emergency preparedness officials still plan to deploy some Regional Transit Authority buses, school buses and perhaps even Amtrak trains to move some people before a storm.
An RTA emergency plan dedicates 64 buses and 10 lift vans to move people somewhere; whether that means out of town or to local shelters of last resort would depend on emergency planners' decision at that moment, RTA spokeswoman Rosalind Cook said. But even the larger buses hold only about 60 people each, a rescue capacity that is dwarfed by the unmet need. In an interview at the opening of this year's hurricane season, New Orleans Emergency Preparedness Director Joseph Matthews acknowledged that the city is overmatched. "It's important to emphasize that we just don't have the resources to take everybody out," he said in a interview in late May.
In the absence of public transportation resources, Total Community Action and the Red Cross have been developing a private initiative called Operation Brother's Keeper that, fully formed, would enlist churches in a vast, decentralized effort to make space for the poor and the infirm in church members' cars when they evacuate. However, the program is only in the first year of a three-year experiment and involves only four local churches so far. The Red Cross and Total Community Action are trying to invent a program that would show churches how to inventory their members, match those with space in their cars with those needing a ride, and put all the information in a useful framework, Wilkins said. But the complexities so far are daunting, she said.
The inventories go only at the pace of the volunteers doing them. Where churches recruit partner churches out of the storm area to shelter them, volunteers in both places need to be trained in running shelters, she said. People also have to think carefully about what makes good evacuation matches. Wilkins said that when ride arrangements are made, the volunteers must be sure to tell their passengers where their planned destination is if they are evacuated. Moreover, although the Archdiocese of New Orleans has endorsed the project in principle, it doesn't want its 142 parishes to participate until insurance problems have been solved with new legislation that reduces liability risks, Wilkins said. At the end of three years, organizers of Operation Brother's Keeper hope to have trained 90 congregations how to develop evacuation plans for their own members.
Meanwhile, some churches appear to have moved on their own to create evacuation plans that assist members without cars. Since the Hurricane Ivan evacuation of 2004, Mormon churches have begun matching members who have empty seats in cars with those needing seats, said Scott Conlin, president of the church's local stake. Eleven local congregations of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints share a common evacuation plan, and many church members have three-day emergency kits packed and ready to go, he said. Mormon churches in Jackson, Miss., Hattiesburg, Miss., and Alexandria, La., have arranged to receive evacuees. The denomination also maintains a toll-free telephone number that functions as a central information drop, where members on the road can leave information about their whereabouts that church leaders can pick up and relay as necessary, Conlin said.
If you want to claim or imply that Nagin didn't ask the state and the feds for resources to do better by his people provide some evidence. He has arlready said otherwise.
Posted by: Frank | September 06, 2005 at 12:58 AM
Internet has been in and out today, so several comments compressed into one
===========
I strongly suspect that one reason, maybe the main reason, the state/city didn't send all available busses into NO as the storm approached, was that there was no place to put the people.
A wargame for a 'Hurricane Pam' predicted all of this, and the followup was to plan emergency services for those evacuated to the Superdome. Federal funding for that followup was cut.
========
Some comments from the NO police chief at the Times-Picayune's weblog
"Not one of my deputy chiefs left," said Compass, who was accompanied by the Rev. Jesse Jackson in Baton Rouge. "We had 150 officers trapped in eight feet of water. It wasn't 150 desertions. We were fighting odds that you could not imagine. We had no food. We had no water. We ran out of ammunition. We were fighting in waist-deep water."
and
Compass also blasted anyone who thought he was out of town during the storm or its aftermath. "I have an 8-month pregnant wife and a 3 year-old daughter who I evacuated in my police car to Denham Springs," he said.
The police chief, who came from the ranks of NOPD to lead the department once plagued by corruption and outrageous law-breakers wearing badges, said New Orleans was overwhelmed by a tiny contingent of the worst kind of criminals -- not the masses of city residents who took shelter from the storm.
I think this will be one of the big stories to be picked out, especially since the Mayor is arranging vacations for NO first responders. Note how this article focusses the point, making it seem unreasonable, but Las Vegas is an obvious destination because the infrastructure and casino links to New Orleans guarantee donations of rooms, etc.
===========
Party discipline kicks in. Sen Vitter is on CNN and just said that Bush was focussed on the crisis, but 'the bureaucracy under him failed'.
second data point
============
Some predictions about stories
Two airlines are about to go bankrupt, Northwest, followed by a second one, because they can't handle increased fuel costs (Northwest is in particular troublt because they are already hanging by a thread and have a fleet of relatively inefficient jets because they have postponed purchasing new ones)
A long series of lawsuits will take place over access to admin deliberations over the disaster and national guard deployment questions, with the admin declaring that they can't be released because of national security.
A diaspora of New Orleanians will not only change the political landscape, but will result in more activism/discontent with the right in the communities they relocate to.
Aaron Broussard. Gutsy decision to open up Jeff Parish will make a difference in people and the city getting back up.
Foreign workers, especially on the Coast casinos. This article underestimates the number who were employed, I think.
Posted by: liberal japonicus | September 06, 2005 at 12:58 AM
Anarch: on p. 4 of the NRP, an example of an 'Incident of National Significance' is a major disaster or emergency as defined under the Stafford Act, which Katrina is. So I think it counts.
I know, I've cited it elsewhere. The problem was that I didn't have the Stafford Act at hand, and the NRP is deliberately couched in "companionable" language (as now Slarti and I have both noted). I assumed, for a number of reasons, that an INS invoked as per CaseyL's cite above would supercede the "companionability" clause on simple pragmatic grounds, but it's nice to have this confirmed.
Posted by: Anarch | September 06, 2005 at 12:59 AM
Oh no! embedded blockquotes!
Posted by: liberal japonicus | September 06, 2005 at 01:00 AM
CaseyL: the President can refuse the request for assistance. But in this case, he granted it. Under both the regs and the NRP (see p. 15), the feds coordinate the response in any Incident of National Significance, of which this is one. NRP, p. 7:
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 01:01 AM
Hang in there, LJ. Storm should pass soon, if it hasn't already done so.
Posted by: Anarch | September 06, 2005 at 01:03 AM
Anarch: since I posted about half the Stafford Act, it should always be at hand now ;)
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 01:04 AM
A diaspora of New Orleanians will not only change the political landscape, but will result in more activism/discontent with the right in the communities they relocate to.
Just heard on the local news that Madison's going to be picking up about 500 (?) evacuees from Nawlins. Go us!
And on that note, I heard on MSNBC, I think it was, earlier today that due to absorbing refugees a number of states are now eligible for Federal disaster aid that weren't otherwise eligible. They specifically mentioned Colorado and Florida as getting funds but not Minnesota, Massachussetts or (now) Wisconsin. Anyone got a list of the states now eligible?
Posted by: Anarch | September 06, 2005 at 01:11 AM
I politicize (with bonus attempted New Testament reference!) a non-politicization of Katrina (all content in second link).
Posted by: rilkefan | September 06, 2005 at 01:13 AM
Two things: I am as I have always been (same as it ever was...), and...ok, and the second one is just petty. Consider this an effective self-editing.
You know, I think I'd look pretty goddamned silly if I were asking for that which I already had. Wouldn't I?
You know, sometimes I feel a kinship with Gary Farber: if I hadn't cited this very thing upthread, maybe you could assume that I hadn't laid eyes on it before.
Aside from the numerous claims here that it did? I thought that was one point we were all in agreement on: that the evacuation was a failure. Well, here's the plan; you tell me if you think all the steps were followed. I can point out a few things that didn't happen, but since this isn't a particularly well-written plan, there's a bit of wiggle room. I suppose that at some point, Mobilize parish/local transportation to assist persons who lack transportation or who have mobility problems may have been executed to some small degree.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 01:18 AM
slarti- Small degree? They filled the stadium and sent ~25,000 people to a secondary shelter. Supposedly 80% of New Orleanians left town. The best they had ever done before was 60%. What do you want from the guy?
Posted by: Frank | September 06, 2005 at 01:27 AM
Just to make it clear:
"The overall strategy for dealing with a catastrophic hurricane is to evacuate as
much of the at risk population as possible from the path of the storm and
relocate them to a place of relative safety outside the projected high water
mark of the storm surge flooding and hurricane force winds."
Everyone who got to the stadium or the convention center was sucsessfully evacuated acording to plan.
Posted by: Frank | September 06, 2005 at 01:33 AM
Is that via pre-cognition
Indeed. The doctors say the pineal gland in my brain is unusually sized. It's that, or....it's possibly via reading the comments on this website and making an educated guess.
Hence "I think". Which, btw, is the sort of turn of phrase Slartibartfast might use.
Regardless, he has clarified that he is indeed asking these questions, repeatedly, out of sincere ignorance of the subject and my pineal gland is silent as to the truth of the matter.
Posted by: 2shoes | September 06, 2005 at 01:36 AM
Of course the question as to whether the survivors should have followed the plan by going to the designated sites is a completely different one. I would have to answer in the negative.
Probably no US evacuation in the future will be as sucessful as this one since now the survivors will know that they will be on their own.
Posted by: Frank | September 06, 2005 at 01:37 AM
For Georges. A Category 2. I'm thinking there's not much of a comparison, here.
It's not important or even relevant what I want from the guy, Frank. I do think when assembling the blame team, though, that it's important to include a few representatives who are actually responsible.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 01:40 AM
I suspect that one of the reasons that his comments have become more terse and cryptic is that he feels that commentors here will leap all over any extended and more committed comment.
Actually, my pineal gland is telling me that it's because of terse and cryptic commentary that, hmm...no, not "turn on", but rather no longer feel inclined to listen.
Perhaps if you feel you're are being misunderstood then maybe terseness and crypticism are not the way to go?
But this is all pre-cog nonsense.
That's just me, though.
Posted by: 2shoes | September 06, 2005 at 01:44 AM
Hopefully, the urge to eat human brains* is one you can resist, 2shoes.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 01:49 AM
Frank, that Times-Picayne article is hardly support for a strong civic evacuation drive. DVD warnings to the poor? Matched with a statement that some local churches felt that parallel plans would be better? This article doesn't *prove* much except that certain weaknesses were foreseen, that the local authorities hoped to use busses in the event of an evacuation, and that everybody hoped to use church networks as a subsitute for government. (Yay, Mormons evacuated their own. They also have a parallel welfare system funded by a ten percent tax on their members.)
Where I agree with what I imagine you're arguing: 80% is really an amazing evacuation rate, if it's indeed true. (I remain agnostic about all numbers coming out of this disaster zone.)
It's the next part that deserves argument, and it deserves civil argument, particularly now that we have reason to hope that federal relief has finally kicked in. I'm as pissed off as anyone about the week that New Orleans drowned, but it's worth our while to think clearly about how responsibility and authority sorts out.
What kills me is that nobody seemed in control, that chain of command wasn't clear, that available and willing resources weren't tapped while NO drowned. This fiasco needs honest sorting out so that it can never happen again. It seems clear to me, sitting safely in my NYC apartment, that some cities simply don't have the resources to save their populations. I would like such cities to be able to call in federal support. I would also like such callings-in to have a clear line of authority so that everybody knows who's in control. That process is what is really in debate, I think.
I'm out for good now.
Posted by: Jackmormon | September 06, 2005 at 01:49 AM
Slarti- Well no doubt. There is no one more responsible than Bush and he is always the Captain of the blame team.
Posted by: Frank | September 06, 2005 at 01:51 AM
I'm going to bed. My cause and I bid you all a fond adieu.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 01:52 AM
I hesitate to wade into this, but there was Ivan
(9/14/04)
In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin declared a state of emergency and strongly recommended that residents evacuate immediately.
A hurricane warning was issued from Grand Isle, south of New Orleans, to Apalachicola, Florida. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions will likely affect the area within 24 hours.
A hurricane watch remained in effect west of the warning area, from Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana.
"[New Orleans] basically sits like a bowl, and most of the city is under sea level ... so if we get a storm like Ivan to hit us directly" there could be 12 to 18 feet of water in the city, Nagin said.
If people can't get out of New Orleans, the mayor said, they should do a "vertical evacuation."
"Basically, go to hotels and high-rise buildings in the city."
Mandatory evacuations have been issued for St. Charles and Plaquemines parishes. Officials strongly urged residents of Jefferson Parish to begin leaving.
Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco declared a state of emergency Monday, and in a news conference Tuesday urged coastal residents in designated areas to leave immediately.
However, Katrina was the first time a mandatory evacuation was ordered, so it was unprecedented. I was in Mississippi on from the 8/19-8/22 and all of the New Orleans stations were discussing the steps taken to prepare the Superdome, as well as 10 other shelters of last resort.
Indeed, while the power was working, staying in the Superdome was not too problematic.
The Superdome opened its doors at noon Sunday, and New Orleans' most frail residents got priority. The stadium is by far the most solid of the Big Easy's 10 refuges for the estimated 100,000 city residents who don't have the means, or strength, to join a mandatory evacuation.
"They hadn't opened up and let us in here, there'd have been a lot of people floating down river tomorrow," said Merrill Rice, 64. "If it's as bad as they say, I know my old house won't stand it."
Residents lined up for blocks, clutching meager belongings and crying children as National Guardsman searched them for guns, knives and drugs. It was almost 10:30 p.m. before the last person was searched and allowed in. Thornton estimated 8,000 to 9,000 were inside when the doors closed for the 11 p.m. curfew.
[snip]
Thornton worried about how everyone would fare over the next few days.
"We're expecting to be here for the long haul," he said. "We can make things very nice for 75,000 people for four hours. But we aren't set up to really accommodate 8,000 for four days."
There is also this
Gov. Kathleen Blanco this morning urged evacuees to sit tight and try not to rush back home to the New Orleans area when Hurricane Katrina begins to pass later today.
At about 9:30 a.m., the storm was about 30 miles southeast of New Orleans and heading north.
"It will be impossible for you to get where you need to go - undoubtedly," she said as roadways flooded and tress came down across south Louisiana.
"Too many people stayed as far as we are concerned," she said. "Please be patient and stay away. Be safe."
The governor said evacuees should wait for an all-clear from their parish officials.
Both of these suggest that Blanco and Nagin succeeded in providing the first line of defense, but it was the breeched levee, coupled with the absence/inability of Guard response that takes the main blame.
Also look at this link and the date.
The National Guard's solid response to Hurricane Katrina demonstrates that the Guard is still fully capable of responding to stateside emergencies while supporting the war in terror overseas, the chief of the National Guard Bureau told the American Forces Press Service today.
Army Lt. Gen. H. Steven Blum described the thousands of Army and Air National Guard troops called to active duty in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and other states to support hurricane operations as a testament to the Guard's ability to carry out its federal and state missions simultaneously.
Guard members along the Gulf Coast are performing a variety of missions, from providing security at the emergency shelter at the New Orleans Superdome, where thousands of local residents are seeing refuge from Hurricane Katrina, to assisting with emergency evacuations.
As the storm's fury begins to wane, the Guard will begin providing a wide range of other support: helping law enforcement agencies with security and traffic control; transporting and distributing food, water and ice; conducting searches and rescues; providing generator support; and carrying out other missions to support live and property.
This roundup points out the preparations made and the grinding poverty of those who were trapped.
Posted by: liberal japonicus | September 06, 2005 at 02:05 AM
So you're saying that even though they had an evacuation plan, they knew they couldn't execute it. Interesting. You'd think that someone would have mentioned that beforehand, and requested assistance.
No, that's what you're saying. I'm saying that, instead of ensuring that emergency response professionals were prepared for any situation (and you have cited information that claims this is their responsibility), FEMA did not even ensure that emergency response professionals were prepared for entirely predictable situations forecast well in advance. They did not ensure that emergency response professionals were prepared to deal with courses of action they themselves recommended. They didn't do their damn job.
The reasons? Nothing new, just the incompetence and ideology of the Bush administration.
Posted by: felixrayman | September 06, 2005 at 02:39 AM
Come back after a few days away and you find just insane stuff - Derbyshire on the greater need of African-Americans for moral guidance, via Atrios. Glad at least ObWi hasn't burned down.
Posted by: rilkefan | September 06, 2005 at 03:03 AM
OK, let me get this straight. The reason that Bush is not to be blamed here is because the Mayor and/or governor didn't fill out a 27B/6? Good luck with that one guys.
Posted by: Fledermaus | September 06, 2005 at 05:21 AM
More politicizing Katrina from RedState.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 06, 2005 at 05:51 AM
Just in case anyone is curious, and hasn't already figured it out, Google has recent (31 Aug) satellite snaps of New Orleans. For example, a different perspective on the famous school bus photo: before and after. Also, yachts. (Won't someone think of the yachts?)
Posted by: Jack Lecou | September 06, 2005 at 07:03 AM
Thanks for the troll-pointing, J, and hope you don't mind that I cleaned up your comments with theirs. I figured they were disposable, having served their purpose.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 09:01 AM
Thanks for the troll-pointing, J, and hope you don't mind that I cleaned up your comments with theirs.
Of course not. Thanks for the cleanup work.
Posted by: Spam spam spam spam | September 06, 2005 at 09:06 AM
Oops.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 06, 2005 at 09:07 AM
Conversely: non-politicization of Katrina.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 06, 2005 at 09:26 AM
Jes: I just cleaned up one of your spam pointers too, after reading that it was OK.
About the RedState story: by the time either the liberal or the conservative blog donation thingos had appeared, I had already given directly through the Red Cross. As, I assume, had a lot of people.
Posted by: hilzoy | September 06, 2005 at 09:57 AM
some quick thoughts.
it seems to me that the City's plan for dealing with a hurricane of providing a central facility or two is entirely reasonable. After all, the Mayor cannot force people to leave their homes nor force other cities to make space and transportation available.
the State should have probably done more to protect transportation assets. Once it was clear that the storm would be a monster it was likely already too late to start moving large numbers of people. but getting buses to high shelter should have been a priority.
once the storm was through and the levees went, i don't understand what anybody expected from the Mayor. His city was underwater and his too-small police force was overwhelmed.
now, as between the state and the feds I don't know who has the power to deploy Guardsmen. That is a key question. Obviously only the feds can deploy US military assets, and those seem to have moved very slowly except for certain Coast Guard units.
but the responsibility for extracting the thousands of people left stranded has to be laid at FEMA's doorstep. That's what we have it for, to bring the power of the several states to bear when a single state is overwhelmed.
to the conservatives objecting to the liberals' attack on FEMA, what were the deficiencies of the state and local response? what should have been done differently?
Posted by: Francis | September 06, 2005 at 11:13 AM
As has been pointed out, the liberal one is an single donation account, the conservative one an aggregated list.
In any event, the desire to wipe certain smug grins off certain smug faces was strong enough to make me donate there even though I've already donated once.
Oh, and to respond to Slaritbartfast in a way that I think is appropriate:
The evacuation of the city was, in my opinion, a State and Municipal responsibility and, for whatever reason, (not helped by Nagin being a schmuck) they dropped the ball.
After the hurricane hit and wiped out the infrastructure, it became far more than State resources could reasonably handle and demanded a full and prompt federal response. This did not happen.
Saying that everyone deserves to be raked over the coals for this does not let Bush or the feds off lightly at all. This was a massive failure at every level.
Posted by: McDuff | September 06, 2005 at 11:38 AM
The governor of the state in question. To import NG from other states, there has to be a request put to the governor(s) of the state(s) in question.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:05 PM
... because the Mayor and/or governor didn't fill out a 27B/6?
Aha! FEMA is being run by the Vogons!
Posted by: ral | September 06, 2005 at 12:09 PM
Exactly.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 06, 2005 at 12:12 PM
To import NG from other states, there has to be a request put to the governor(s) of the state(s) in question.
And which must also be approved by the White House. The holdup of which is why the New Mexico Guard was delayed for a number of days.
Posted by: 2shoes | September 06, 2005 at 12:35 PM
The governor of the state in question. To import NG from other states, there has to be a request put to the governor(s) of the state(s) in question.
I'm fairly sure that all the affected states were requesting NG presence in the 28th-29th, since CNN was talking about that sort of thing, but I don't have a cite offhand.
Posted by: Anarch | September 06, 2005 at 12:43 PM
Perhaps the part: I am specifically requesting emergency protective measures, direct Federal Assistance,..
Perhaps Blanco was negligent for failing to list all the possible avenues for assistance and protective measures, but since FEMA's early notable accomplishments seem to have been in keeping aid from arriving to those who needed it and in not providing significant protective measures, the point is probably moot.
Posted by: 243 | September 06, 2005 at 12:58 PM
With a federal response like this, it would behoove state governors (especially in hurricane areas) to nix any more requests for National Guard for Iraq. It looks like you better hold on to any resources you've got because you're going to need them.
Posted by: Tim | September 06, 2005 at 01:05 PM
Politicizing Frances.
Posted by: Tad Brennan | September 06, 2005 at 01:23 PM
The "At All Levels" post is broken...
Posted by: rilkefan | September 06, 2005 at 03:32 PM
It was broken from the moment it was conceived...
Posted by: liberal japonicus | September 06, 2005 at 03:37 PM
If by broken you mean "misleading, factually-challenged, and filled with more hackery than a Counterstrike LAN party," then yes, it's broken.
Posted by: Catsy | September 06, 2005 at 04:03 PM
Ok, I can get to it again. Lately it seems as if a lot of the web is run by FEMA.
Posted by: rilkefan | September 06, 2005 at 04:07 PM
JMM on what the admin thinks firefighters are best at. I hope those responsible receive justice.
Posted by: rilkefan | September 06, 2005 at 07:20 PM
I'm not sure why political pundits would balk at being accused of "politicizing" this event. That's what they do. ESPN focused on the impact this would have on the area sports teams and didn't take the time to worry about whether they were sporticizing Katrina.
At the same time, I'm not sure why this would be an accusation, as if it were something to be ashamed of. Unless they happen to live nearby, the only way most pundits can help is with their wallet, and most that I read at least already have and will continue to do so. That still leaves plenty of time to focus on the political aspects of the situation, which is again what political pundits do.
Posted by: ladan | September 06, 2005 at 08:15 PM
Aha! FEMA is being run by the Vogons!
Ral - get your movie references right, damnit!
Posted by: Fledermaus | September 07, 2005 at 04:37 AM
ladan: I'm not sure why political pundits would balk at being accused of "politicizing" this event.
Because, uniformly, the right-wing blogosphere seems to call it "politicizing" if you criticize Bush.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 07, 2005 at 07:55 AM