by hilzoy
In a recent comment, Edward wrote: "What we're learning is that the only party in favor of fiscal responsibility is the party out of power." With respect, this is not true. There is one party that has a consistent record of fiscal responsibility over the last few decades, and one party that has a consistent record of fiscal irresponsibility. It's important to be clear on this, especially since, as I prowl around the conservative blogs, I see various expressions of relief that for all his grand promises the other night, at least we can count on Bush not to engage in the sort of irresponsible spending that Democrats might propose. There is a myth out there according to which Democrats are the party of "big government", while Republicans are normally the party of fiscal conservatism, a party which is having an unfortunate momentary lapse. This is just not true.
Historical data on the budget deficit is here (and here as a percentage of GDP). Here are tables for discretionary spending in dollars and as a percentage of GDP. Here is historical data on the public debt from 1950-2000 and 1997-present. And here is data on the size of the Federal workforce from 1960-2000. This is all government data; it does not come from murky partisan sources. I have checked the graphs that follow against these figures; I present them so that you can too.
Here is a graph of the deficit over the last 35 years, in current and constant dollars:
As you can see, not only was Clinton's presidency a time of real fiscal responsibility; so was Carter's (check out the constant dollar graph.) By contrast, while the tax bill of the mid 80s helped a bit, the general trend under Republicans has been towards greater deficits, and George W. Bush has been a complete budget-buster.
Ha ha, you may say: Clinton, being a Democrat, was undoubtedly a big spender, who was saved from bloated deficits only because the booming economy allowed tax revenues to mask the fact that he was spending money like a drunken sailor. Um, no (pdf):
As you can see, under Clinton discretionary spending scarcely rose at all. As a percentage of GDP, it shrank from 8.2% in 1993 to 6.3% in 2000. If you look here, you'll see that domestic discretionary spending has increased more than twice as fast under George W. Bush as it did under Clinton -- and that's only through 2004; it doesn't include anything related to Hurricane Katrina, or even the pork-laden highway bill. It was also virtually unchanged, as a proportion of GDP, under Carter.
I could go on -- here, for instance, is data on the size of the Federal civilian workforce, excluding the Postal Service, from 1960 through 2000. Amazingly enough, it shows that between 1993 and 2000, this number dropped by 372,812 employees, or about 17.3% of its 1993 total. (Remember Clinton's 'Reinventing Government' program? It worked.) But the Federal civilian workforce also barely rose under Carter -- it grew by about 1,000 people per year, as opposed to about 7,500/year under Reagan.
One last statistic: as best I can figure it, using the debt data linked above, during the time that Reagan and the two Bushes were in office, the Federal government racked up about 68% of our current outstanding debt. While Clinton and Carter were in office, by contrast, it only accumulated about 23%. (I suspect this understates the difference between the two parties: I counted all of 1993 as Clinton and all of 2001 as Bush II, even though in both cases the budgets they started out working with had been passed under their predecessors. Clinton was more fiscally responsible than Bush 1, so sticking him with debts incurred under a Bush 1 budget hurts him; he was, of course, dramatically more responsible than Bush 2, so counting debt incurred under a Clinton budget to Bush 2 helps Bush.) The Republicans have been in office for 17 years, while the Democrats have only 12 between them, but that doesn't come close to accounting for their different records: per year, Republicans racked up about twice as much debt as Democrats.
Democrats support fiscal responsibility when they are out of power, and they not only support it but enforce it when they are in power. Republicans claim to support both fiscal responsibility and lower taxes when they are out of power, but their record in power completely belies the idea that they are committed to fiscal discipline. The idea that Republicans in power have anything at all to do with fiscal responsibility is a myth, and we should not believe it.
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