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September 21, 2005

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Cat 1 to Cat 5 in a day. I'd hope the authorities are getting the entire Texas coast evacuated.

Timing is everything. I just posted something about potential impact of Rita on the old Katrina: Disaster thread here.

Jesse at Pandagon wants to know when the first conservative commentator will use the difference between the Katrina and the Rita events to say something good about Republican states. we can assume he/she won't acknowledge the fact that cities are going to be a lot more nervous about trying to ride a storm out, and that all emergency agencies are going to be on super-high alert this time, and that the geography won't be the same as NO's, etc..

If it were any other administration, I'd be quite confident that now they know what to do, and what not to do.

But with this one? It would appear that Bush still thinks of the whole thing primarily as a PR problem that can be fixed up by Karl Rove in his usual go-for-broke attack-the-opposition-till-they-look-worse-than-you-do style.

If it were any other administration, I'd be quite confident that now they know what to do, and what not to do.

If I were governor of a state in the target zone, I know I'd expect FEMA to come evacuate, just like they did all those other times.

If you want to keep tabs on what's going on with Rita, the best place is wunderground.com, and then go to the blogs.

Dr. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory were on the money with Katrina. Their vivid, fact-stuffed reporting is informally credited with convincing a lot of people who might otherwise have stayed to get the hell out.

When they post updates, it's complete with the latest satellite images and modelings.

That's awesome, CaseyL.

It's an awesome site. Not just the updates from Jeff and Steve, but the commentors. I had no idea there were so many many storm-chasing hurricane-hunting extreme weather groupies, but by god all of 'em seem to post there. The Katrina discussion threads ran to 1100+ comments.

Where else can you goto argue about eyewall replacement rates? Or see a competition for posting the latest barometric readings?

Honestly, I adore the place :)

Wait: we have time stamps on the comments!!!

Not as important as a hurricane, I grant you. Rita looks awful.

Slarti- Is there anyone other than the straw man of your devising claiming that FEMA was responsible for evacuation?

Since you seem to have missed it despite days of discussion: People are mad at FEMA because FEMA didn't deliver the aid that they promised, and prevented others from helping as well.

Rita looks awful

from a purely aesthetic perspective, she's actually kindof pretty. though it'd be nice if she would fizzle out before hitting land, or if she was on Jupiter, about to be swallowed by the Red Spot.

hilzoy: Wait: we have time stamps on the comments!!!

i heard there was a secret chord
that david played and it pleased the lord
but you don't really care for music, do ya?
it goes like this, the fourth, the fifth,
the minor fall, the major lift,
the baffled king composing - halleluja!
-l.cohen

halleluja... welcome back time stamps

"Wait: we have time stamps on the comments!!!"

What do you mean? We've always had time stamps. Look back in the archives if you doubt me.

Asked and answered, Frank. Or is your point that ral is a sockpuppet of mine? And apparently felixrayman still wants to argue the issue, so...yeah, I guess I could have invented him, too.

Hey...timestamps. Gary will be very happy, I imagine.

We've always had time stamps

enough of your revisionist history!

Galveston was washed off the map by a storm surge back in the twenties (I think it was the twenties). Presumably they have adequate levees now. They don't appear to me in the path of the worst of it.
The wildlife refuge at Aransas does appear to be in the worst of it. The endanged whooping cranes go there for the terminus of their migration. I don't know if the cranes are there yet--I hope not. A storm surge could wipe out their winter habitat.
I read some place recently that the increase in furiousity of hurricanes is an effect of global warming. I can't remember my source for this.

My family used to go to the Texas coast and camp at Aransas during Christmas vacation. I have many fond memories of the white sand beaches, the wintering birds, and of course , the alligators in the swampy areas. I hope the wild animals and birds will be able to cope.

Endangered! Endangered whooping cranes! Not endanged.

Slarti, I will write a detailed explanation of what I meant later (if you wish), but not right now. JFTR, I don't agree with your characterization of what I wrote.

Slarti- Is there anyone other than the straw man of your devising claiming that FEMA was responsible for evacuation?

I believe Jesurgislac is, but I'm willing to be corrected.

Jesurgislac is also a strawman of my devising. In fact, all of you are. Except hilzoy, of course.

Jumpin Jehosaphat, this hurricane is headed for Dallas! Obviously, the coast will be hit immensely harder, but I think I am seeing a forecast of sustained 50 mph winds and probably spin-off tornadoes.

Be a break from the 100+ temperatures, but I am wondering If I need to prepare.
....
This could be an all-time monster. Those weeks of 100 degrees in September has probably made the Gulf Coast waters all-time hot...this may build until it hits the coast.
I always thought anything this big creates its own weather, and is unpredictable, but they did a good job on Katrina. Basically I thought the surrounding fronts influence direction less than forward momentum when you reach cat 4 or 5, but Katrina took the North jog they predicted. So I presume Rita will also.

Actually, I haven't heard any actual meteorologists saying the spate of huge storms is a symptom of global warming. What they are saying is that it's the latest phase of a natural cyclic upswing of major and more frequent storms - that we're in about the middle of a 20 year cycle.

Now, it could be that global warming is adding a bit of acceleration to an already-established cycle; maybe the storms are little bigger and more powerful than they would be.

Anyway, that's what I hear. Through these straw-filled ears.

- "Cargo Cult" Casey,
A Slartibartfast Straw(person) Production

Oh, can we turn this into a budget thread? Just kidding, but Rita might add 50-100 billion in reconstruction funds.

We cannot afford Rita. She has to go elsewhere.

The Galveston storm was turn of the (last) century. They built a seawall afterwards but the city was never the same.

That was also a politically fueled tragedy, as the US ignored the storm predictions from Cuban weather stations due to the Spanish-American war.

However last century, people were smart enough to make Houston, with it's ship channel the major port in the area. Now we are so bright and mighty we will rebuild in the exact spot nature slapped us around in.

In more recent history, hurricane Alecia, which hit while my mother was in the hospital delivering my sister, was the last to hit downtown Houston. It was a pretty expensive, but not deadly storm. Rita is more powerful, but the results should be similar. The kind of emergency where checkbooks are what is needed most, like FEMA was used to.

As a favor, if you are the type who does this sort of thing, include my parents and the rest of the residents of the area in your prayers these next few days.

Good references for the Galveston storms: the Galveston County Daily News, the Rosenberg Library (city library of Galveston).

There are great pictures and transcripts of interviews with people who lived through the storm. As you may already know, after the 1900 storm Galveston built a sea wall and raised the elevation of the entire town by 10 feet. This part is recorded pictorially as well.

(My wife's grandparents lived there. Her grandmother told a story of being carried to safety by her father through 6 feet of water.)

In case we need more predictions of doom, we have article from early this year on worst case scenario for Houston and another Oil Drum post, this one superimposing offshore rigs on various projected paths.

We cannot afford Rita. She has to go elsewhere.

Just repeat that ad nauseum, each time you're in a press conference or making a speech, and eventually it will come to be.

And apparently felixrayman still wants to argue the issue

Another straw man of yours Slartibartfast. I wanted to argue that 1) FEMA considered a hurricane hitting New Orleans the third most important disaster scenario to plan for, 2) FEMA's own wargaming showed that a hurricane hitting the city would leave, after a mandatory evacuation, hundreds of thousands of people stuck in a flooding city, 3) FEMA's own recommended course of action was for these people to be housed in places like the Superdome, 4) it was pointed out at these meetings how terrible that idea was, 5) FEMA planned to address this at a later date, and 6) FEMA did not do so because the Republicans cut the money out of the budget.

Since you have so far had plenty of chances to address that argument and have not, I assume your response will be to continue your little straw man game, which has all the relevance of, "But Michael Moore is teh fat!!!!!!!!11".

What I don't expect you to do is to argue that the current administration be held responsible for its miserable performance, its incompetence, its cronyism, or its failed ideology. That would be too much to ask of some.

But not of the National Review. They have some advice for you:

At some point, we conservatives have got to ask ourselves if we stand for principles, or merely maintaining power. We have got to ask ourselves just which conservative goals are being served by the Republican governing status quo. We have got to ask ourselves if our conservatism stands for much more than The Democrats Must Lose.

Phil: I believe Jesurgislac is, but I'm willing to be corrected.

Be corrected. I'm at a loss, indeed, how you get from my comment about the Bush administration being notoriously bad at learning from its mistakes, to Slarti's straw man.

Since this is an open thread, I hope it's not too far off-topic to point you all at one of the best http://www.thepoorman.net/2005/09/22/multitasking/>Poor Man opening paragraphs ever (and the rest of the post is no slouch).

Yikes. I have no idea why that link came out that way and no idea how to fix it.

Poor Man opening paragraphs ever

You had an extra < at the beginning of the link.

Ah. Did I mention that I'm an idiot? Thanks for the fix.

Obviously, the gods feel that there hasn't been enough bitching and fingerpointing, which is why Rita is being sent our way. I see no other explanation.

DaveL, not getting the funny there. Maybe I'm just down because it rained yesterday in Palo Alto.

Be corrected. I'm at a loss, indeed, how you get from my comment about the Bush administration being notoriously bad at learning from its mistakes, to Slarti's straw man

I thought I had seen you claim as recently as yesterday that FEMA was responsible for evacuating New Orleans. In fact, you did.

Apology accepted, Admiral.

FEMA told the Gov that they would send buses. They did not.

I would think that an organization that says that it will send 500 buses is responsible for sending 500 buses. Of course, if I were a Texas city, I wouldn't rely on FEMA do to anything.

Phil- Your link doesn't prove what you seem to think it does. She didn't say FEMA had responsibility for the evacuation. That doesn't mean she can't note, for instance, that FEMA promised to deliver 500 buses to help the evacuation and didn't. Nor is she prohibited from noticing that FEMA told the Louisianna Gov to stop sending busses to the area because FEMA was going to provide helicopters for the evacuation.

Erf. OK, nevermind. I misinterpreted. Sorry about that.

I blame Mike Brown.

OK, nevermind. I misinterpreted. Sorry about that.

Apology accepted, Captain.

DaveL, not getting the funny there. Maybe I'm just down because it rained yesterday in Palo Alto.

Maybe it's just me, but "sadly misunderestimating their ability to fall flat on their faces and choke on their gum at the same time" still gets me on the seventh or eighth reading.

Obviously, the gods feel that there hasn't been enough bitching and fingerpointing, which is why Rita is being sent our way. I see no other explanation.

Agreed, with multiply redundant punctuation.

"the gods feel that there hasn't been enough bitching and fingerpointing"

Who was the Greek god of strife? Not Ares. Not Erinyes. Give up, gotta google....was close with Erinyes...Eris, as compared to Eros.

With Delay saying his trans earmarks are essential and that the tax cuts cannot be delayed, will he refuse any reconstruction funds for his near Houston district? I love to see me enemies at war with each other.

And I know I should feel bad and scared and people will suffer but it has been a horrible summer in Dallas. Feels like we have had 100 straight days of 95+ cloudless humid days. Average for September is 88, we have averaged 98. People have been getting quite peckish. We need a break. But what will we get? Forecast right now is 10-20 inches of rain in Dallas...dry clay soil means flash floods, death and destruction.

And 90 humid degrees a week from today.

Not tossing this up with anyone particular in mind (at least among those reading this), but the god I had most in mind is Ate

Who does that golden apple belong to?

How much you wanna bet that DeLay uses this to say he cannot give up the $100 million in tax funds because now he has his very own disaster to contend with?

It's a good thing global warming isn't really happening because if it was this storm would be soooo much bigger!

For the fairest!

Shall we have an ObWing beauty contest? Who will be Paris and choose between Hilzoy, Sebastian, Edward_, or Slartibartfast?

Shall we have an ObWing beauty contest? Who will be Paris and choose between Hilzoy, Sebastian, Edward_, or Slartibartfast?

What about von? I hear he ain't chopped liver...

I hadn't had enough coffee yet. Of course von too.

The National Hurricane Center now predicts that Rita will pass just East of Houston.

I hope this isn't a trend.

Since this is an open thread, two things to either warm the cockles of your hearts, or alternatively, get you all steamed up. If Mary Landrieu's comment about punching someone really got you angry, please skip this.

The first, via Steve Gilliard, is the Enquirer story about Bush falling off the wagon. I know that some are going to be really upset about noting this, but the honest truth is that I found myself hoping that this was true when I read this:

A Washington source said: "The sad fact is that he has been sneaking drinks for weeks now. Laura may have only just caught him — but the word is his drinking has been going on for a while in the capital. He's been in a pressure cooker for months.

"The war in Iraq, the loss of American lives, has deeply affected him. He takes every soldier's life personally. It has left him emotionally drained.

The result is he's taking drinks here and there, likely in private, to cope. "And now with the worst domestic crisis in his administration over Katrina, you pray his drinking doesn't go out of control."

This is just me, but him falling off the wagon because he is tormented by the mistakes he has made is a lot more palatable to me than him being, as Pelosi said, ''Oblivious, in denial,
dangerous"

The second is via Andrew Sullivan, who is the 'guest blogger' for the WashPo, and found this gem

BATON ROUGE, LA. - The White House announced today that President Bush has successfully sold the state of Louisiana back to the French at more than double its original selling price of $11,250,000.

"This is a bold step forward for America," said Bush. "And America will be stronger and better as a result. I stand here today in unity with French Prime Minister Jack Sharaq[sic], who was so kind to accept my offer of Louisiana in exchange for 25 million dollars cash."

check out the picture, pretty damn funny.

Heh. I was going to ridicule you for even READING the Enquirer piece, until I saw the second part of your post.

Update: confirmed, Rita appears to be heading East. Now they've got it well East of Houston. Southern Louisiana should prepare for the worst; the storm surge is going to be on the East side of the eye.

Slarti- Trying to pin the blame on the locals, followed by complaining about all the fingerpointing. Wow, congratulations Karl Rove must be very proud of you!

Not proud, but he pays me well.

Next bit of well-poisoning, please.

A set of glum predictions about Rita's effects -- mostly on natural gas, which may go to 5 times the price of 2 years ago!

very interested theme; I will back, thanks!

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