Who do you think will win? And by how much? I predict Kerry, with an electoral vote count of either 301 (with Florida) or 274 (without it.) (I think Kerry should win Florida, but I am not sure how to take account of the influence of Jeb.) Of the swing states other than Florida, I predict NH, MI, MN, IA, PA, OH, NM for Kerry; the rest for Bush (oddly enough, I can't help predicting Wisconsin for Bush. Hmm.)
There's also a bigger win for Kerry that seems possible, a win for Bush (involving both OH and FL), and, horrifyingly, a tie (my predictions all work out except for FL and NM.)
And you?
I'm going to go on record predicting that Kerry will win every swing state and at least two in solid-red territory, like maybe Arkansas and North Carolina. It's time for a sweep!
Posted by: Jeremy Osner | November 01, 2004 at 10:04 PM
A clear and substantial Bush victory, 320+ electoral votes. Don't believe it? Nobody else will either, but won't matter much.
Or
A Kerry victory as in hilzoy's prediction, except that Florida and Ohio and perhaps others will remain unclear until decided by courts, legislatures, or exhaustion.
Ohio already seems in some sort of argument between Ohio Supremes and 6th circuit over the Dlott/Adams challenger ruling. I am not expecting a quiet election.
Posted by: bob mcmanus | November 01, 2004 at 10:20 PM
Kerry, 900-3 (stupid Wyoming)
Posted by: praktike | November 01, 2004 at 10:36 PM
Ask me Wednesday. But don't ask me which Wednesday...
Posted by: John Thullen | November 01, 2004 at 10:38 PM
Ask me Wednesday. But don't ask me which Wednesday...
Posted by: John Thullen | November 01, 2004 at 10:38 PM
I agree with your assessment Hilzoy except i would switch Iowa to Bush and Wisconsin for Kerry. Otherwise, it's spot on.
Posted by: wilfred | November 01, 2004 at 10:39 PM
Shh, hilzoy. Don't attract the evil eye.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov | November 01, 2004 at 10:40 PM
Sox in four!
Posted by: liberal japonicus | November 01, 2004 at 10:47 PM
I'm saying 299-239 Kerry, and 49.5%-48.5% Kerry. Here is the chez Nadezhda thread where I detail my prediction, and here is the thread where I lay out the thoughts on polling that lead me to that prediction.
Posted by: Trickster | November 01, 2004 at 10:50 PM
Kerry 52
Bush 45
Badnarik 2
Nader 1
Kerry 300+ EVs
Posted by: Chuchundra | November 01, 2004 at 10:55 PM
It's going to be a Kerry blowout. I don't think it will even be close. Bigger than Reagan's "landslide". The wailing and gnashing of the teeth on the right is going to be truly deafening.
Posted by: Hal | November 01, 2004 at 11:00 PM
As I said in an earlier post Kerry 282, Bush 256 but that was giving Bush Florida. Tonight I'm thinking Kerry will win in the sunshine state, ergo 309 for the blue team. Also, I'd bet on Wisconsin going blue. And by the way hilzoy, based on what I've seen at the recorder's office in the past few days, even AZ could surprise. I also predict Kerry at 52% of the popular vote minimum.
Posted by: xanax | November 01, 2004 at 11:25 PM
I've got no idea. My best guess, based on nothing at all but how conflicted I am, is a tiny edge for the President in LOTS of states resulting in a closely split populace but an electoral landslide for The President.
I'm really interested in how far red moves seaward or blue inland here in CA.
Posted by: crionna | November 02, 2004 at 12:18 AM
Twas the night before Christmas and ..
I'm having a beer and trying to work out the chords on the guitar to a Jimmy Eat World song, the first line of which is "What's wrong, baby?"
"If you don't, don't know, why'd you say so
Would you mean this please if it happened
If you don't, don't know, why'd you say so
Won't you get your story straight."
They remind me of the Zombies from the British invasion back in the Sixties. A little Beatlely, plaintive phrasing, heartbreaking harmonies, some nice changes.
Apropos of nothing.
Except to say goodnight to all of you and thank you and good luck in the world.
Posted by: John Thullen | November 02, 2004 at 12:23 AM
Kerry squeaker. The popular vote rounds to 50/50, the EV goes Kerry in any of a couple combinations of lucky breaks and turnout in the battlegrounds.
Posted by: wcw | November 02, 2004 at 12:24 AM
"I'm really interested in how far red moves seaward or blue inland here in CA."
The really interesting map is the county or precinct map. Much more complicated than "red/blue states".
Posted by: bob mcmanus | November 02, 2004 at 12:28 AM
I'm really interested in how far red moves seaward or blue inland here in CA.
I'm guessing the blue stops pretty much at the Berkeley hills. Not that eastern Contra Costa County is deep red, but I suspect it's redder than a lot of people think.
Posted by: Josh | November 02, 2004 at 01:10 AM
The really interesting map is the county or precinct map. Much more complicated than "red/blue states".
ask and ye shall receive. I imagine they will do one for this election when it is finally decided.
Posted by: liberal japonicus | November 02, 2004 at 01:13 AM
(oddly enough, I can't help predicting Wisconsin for Bush. Hmm.)
:o You bitch! You big horrible meanie! You don't trust us??
*cries himself to sleep*
;)
Posted by: Anarch | November 02, 2004 at 01:58 AM
I think Kerry's going to win by a larger margin than anyone predicted for him, both in the popular vote and the electoral college - providing (and it's a big if) the fears about the Diebold machines being rigged prove to be unfounded.
The Diebold machines are designed in such a way that they could rig the vote - easily and without any record that it had been changed. They should never have been used, because even if they are not used to rig the vote, the fact that they could be - tracelessly - makes any election in which they are used to count the votes a questionable election. (Questionable in the sense that the results, whatever they are, ought to be questioned: checked against exit polls, and if the difference is at all significant, physically investigated to see if anyone did use their weakness to frustrate democracy. But no such investigation will ever occur if Bush wins today: and that is the overriding reason why he should not.)
I don't see how Bush can win fairly. He lost the popular vote last time: he's failed (hell, he never tried) to win over those opposed to him: he got the electoral college by a squeaker thanks to his brother rigging the vote in Florida. And there are reliable reports of heavy minority voter turnout and young voter turnout this time - which is never good for Republicans.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | November 02, 2004 at 04:04 AM
My Predictions
I am an optimist, a landslide giving 340 EVs for kerry.
Posted by: Don Quijote | November 02, 2004 at 06:53 AM
The lawyers may be the only winners. They will once again line their pockets at our countries expense. Probably spawn a few more Congressmen and Vice-Presidential candidates as well. The Republicans win a bit on the side, luxury car and yacht sales will spike.
Posted by: blogbudsman | November 02, 2004 at 08:32 AM
he's failed (hell, he never tried) to win over those opposed to him:
Not sure why you say that -- there've been plenty of stories on vote-switching in both directions from 2000. A number of Gore voters in 2000 have declared their support for Bush in 2004 based on the WOT.
As for predictions, I predict I'll stay up way too late tonight and be worried when I go to bed that the results are going to be different when I wake up.
Posted by: kenB | November 02, 2004 at 08:54 AM
Dudes, it's gonna be Giblets in a landslide.
Posted by: Iron Lungfish | November 02, 2004 at 08:59 AM
I think Kerry with 307, and at least 51% of the popular vote, but all must bow before the mighty Giblets!
Posted by: Doh | November 02, 2004 at 09:32 AM
I think Kerry with 52% of the popular vote, not sure about the EC. But, I think that will be just as close with Kerry by an edge.
Posted by: Blue | November 02, 2004 at 09:45 AM
At this point I'm just hoping for an election where shenanigans don't have a major impact. And one where lawyers don't get more than one vote each in the final say. :)
Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw | November 02, 2004 at 11:07 AM
Oh, the prediction. I'm boldly predicting that Nader gets zero electoral votes and less of the popular vote than Perot did in 1992 and 1996. But if Kerry loses, there will be at least as much whining over Nader as there ever was over Perot.
Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw | November 02, 2004 at 11:27 AM
Interesting to see how the predictions of a Bush or Kerry landslide have so far failed to materialize. Kerry's starting to narrow the gap a bit in Ohio, but Florida wasn't that close at all. And I predicted it'd be as close as last time. With 87% of precincts reporting in Ohio, it's Bush by only 100k votes.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | November 03, 2004 at 12:57 AM
Oh, and we should all pray that it doesn't come down to Iowa: with 86% of the precincts in, it's Kerry by about 800.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | November 03, 2004 at 01:02 AM
We get to enjoy the count of the 300k(?) provisional ballots in Ohio. And if that should go for Kerry, then dealing with the broken machines etc. in Iowa. Then I guess more court cases in Ohio if need be.
Still, guess I'm going to be unhappy for another four years.
Posted by: rilkefan | November 03, 2004 at 02:38 AM
I refuse to fasten my state of happiness to who's president, rilkefan. A Kerry victory would have been for me (at worst) a mild setback.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | November 03, 2004 at 09:43 AM
"I refuse to fasten my state of happiness to who's president, rilkefan. A Kerry victory would have been for me (at worst) a mild setback."
The situations were asymmetric - Kerry (who I believe would have taken a slim mandate as instruction to govern moderately) vs the R congress on the one hand, and Bush (who I believe will move farther Bushward) with an R congress on the other.
Re fastening, I'm naturally melancholy, but I was looking forward to occasional joy from center-left SC appointments etc. Guess I'll have to put more of my heart into my family and work instead.
Posted by: rilkefan | November 03, 2004 at 01:30 PM