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October 01, 2004

Comments

I'll stick with the "Bush got his ass kicked" talking point.

After all, the "Gore-Bush I" talking point that got the most traction had to do with the series of international crises precipitated by a candidate's sighing.

"you need a rifle with a single bullet to cut through the chatter"

Bush: agitated, defensive

I though he looked defensive and agitated. Also, his agitation and defensiveness were unbecoming a President. Never have I seen anyone in a debate so agitated and defensive.

I'll stick with the "Bush got his ass kicked" talking point.

And you'd be outmaneuvered. A good talking point is a specific criticism of the other guy that makes one of your central point. "Global test" is great, because it uses Kerry's words to play into the "Kerry will give Europe a veto over our defense" meme. It'll keep waverers in line and re-energize the base.

"Bush got his ass kicked" doesn't have close to the same effect. It's a statement of opinion.

It's hard to choose: there were so many blunders in Bush's speech to pick. The line about "He forgot Poland!" and the comment about putting his daughter on leashes are both pretty good, if trivial.

There were a couple of plain straightforward lies, as well as the predictable confusion over exactly who attacked the US on 9/11.

Overall, Bush doesn't have a plan for Iraq, beyond "we'll keep doing what we're doing and everything will be fine!", if you can call that a plan. And this is obvious.

Overall, Kerry came across as thoughtful, consistent, intelligent, and interested in the issues.

Kerry used the past tense as in "Your credibility is judged by the facts your actions were based on."
I know it can be spun hard the other way but I don't think it will grow legs and walk very far into the national consciousness.
Though they certainly will try.
On your other point:
He has focused on controlling access to the former soviet union's nuclear materials during his years in the senate.
Bush seems to focus more on Missile Defense.

Kerry was Presidential.

Bush was whiny and defensive.

i am proud to report that the ABC News Brief at 3pm just announced that Bush today in PA blasted Kerry for saying last night that other countries would run US foreign policy. Peter Jennings then said "last night at the debates John Kerry said exactly the opposite". Well, as i live and breathe, real reporting!

I believe the talking point for Kerry has to be this:

In answer to your question about Iraq and sending people into Iraq {Bush] just said, the enemy attacked us. Saddam Hussein didn't attack us. Osama bin Laden attacked us. Al Qaeda attacked us.

There's good buzz at Daily Kos about Bush's claim that we can't afford to pay for basic Homeland Security upgrades. Kerry talked about straightforward efforts like securing ports, nuke/chem plants, subways, etc. and Bush unloaded his stock "he's just a tax and spend liberal" snark line, at a terribly inappropriate moment. His response: "I don't think we want to get to how he's going to pay for all these promises. It's like a huge tax gap."

The suggested bullet is "Bush: We can't afford basic Homeland Security."

"Global test" is great, because it uses Kerry's words to play into the "Kerry will give Europe a veto over our defense" meme. It'll keep waverers in line and re-energize the base.

yes, even when he says clearly, explicitly and forcefully that he won't do that, you choose yet another out-of-context phrase to lie about. just admit it, you don't give a crap what he actually says - your storyline is already written.

er, cleek,

please tone it down. Von is not "lying" about anything here. He's demonstrated again and again that he does care what's actually said, and you're not advancing anything here with the hollow criticism.

Naw, cleek. Von isn't saying that. He's saying other people will say that. It's a story about the story. A meta-story, if you will. His hands are clean.

Cleek, I'm writing about the process, not endorsing the result.

And, though Kerry will not give Europe a "veto" over our national security, I am concerned that Europe will have too much power over our national security under Kerry. You may disagree, but I'm sure you can see that the subject is at least worthy of debate.

BTW, if you think I'm part of some Republican spin machine, you're confused (or I'm incredibly ineffective -- see my criticism of Bush's statement of A.Q. Khan).

Amendment: "Most everyone agrees that Bush got his ass kicked."

if you think I'm part of some Republican spin machine, you're confused

i've been reading your posts here and before, on Tacitus, for a while and didn't think you were a partisan righty until this post. and, re-reading, i can see that i (really) mis-read you.

apologies.

and you're not advancing anything here with the hollow criticism

i don't think it's so hollow. sure, it's completely misplaced, as it turns out; but as his own words make clear, "Global Test", when taken utterly out of context, perfectly fits the pre-approved Kerry storyline.

It could be that there's no "single silver bullet" to fixate upon because, let's face it, Bush went down in a hail of bullets last night. How do you pick just one?

1. On everything from proliferation (AQ Khan brought to "justice") to trained Iraqi troops (less than half of Bush's 100,000) to the general state of Iraq, Bush repeatedly either lied or was divorced from reality (I'll leave it up to others to speculate whether or not the President of the United States is intentionally deceiving us when he speaks, or has been so deceived and deprived of actual information that he believes, for instance, that A. Q. Khan has been "brought to justice." I find both equally damning).

2. Bush's continued insistence that he couldn't have done better in the last four years, while simultaneously promising to do in his next term what he refused to do in his first (see nuclear non-proliferation). Bush wants to acknowledge the fact that voters are, frankly, pissed at his handling of the country, but is unable to accept any responsibility at all for it. His "Tommy Franks was too successful" response especially smacked of the proverbial interviewee who says his worst failing is that he's a workaholic.

3. George Bush's suggestion that he "never dreamed" he would send American troops seems to imply that when he was running for president he had no idea what being president would entail. This was deeply unsettling.

4. Most devastating, Bush appeared defensive, whiney, petulant, unpleasant, and generally shaken throughout most of the debate. This president, more than any other in my lifetime and I'd wager more than any other in history, has selling himself on his image. He is the Mascot King, a cartoon emperor set up to strike heroic poses while Baghdad burns. The survival of his campaign relies - and has always relied - upon the ability of his managers to separate his achievements from his image in the American consciousness. His achievements have been increasing chaos and disruption in the mideast, the shadow of a failed state, an economy that's bleeding good jobs like a stuck pig. His image is that of a strong, decisive leader speaking strong, decisive words.

Last night that facade was down, and when it came up again with his closing statement, it became nakedly apparent that even the pretense of strength was never native to George W. Bush - it was native to his speechwriters.

Republicans will harp on Kerry's "global test" - a phrase they've gleefully plucked out of context in the hope that they can dull the edge on what has been a Kerry victory. But it doesn't change the fact that everyone watching that debate saw a fearful, out-of-his-depth man with a tenuous grasp on the realities of his job, who gave every indication that not only did he not understand what it means to be a president, but he still does not fully comprehend this today. And John Kerry handed him his ass.

P.S. I would like to hear you actually discuss why Kerry's "global test" is bad, Von, other than on a knee-jerk sounds-like-Kofi-Annan-bossin'-us-around level.

A.Q. Kahn annoyed me too. My husband had to tell me to stop talking to the TV.

Did not surprise me though; it's in his bloody stump speech. My word of the day for the Bush administration is "brazen".

Global test was poor phrasing but the context makes it perfectly clear what he meant: if you're going to attack preemptively be prepared to show it was legitimate afterwards.

They're using it to propagate the same old lie about Kerry not going to war without U.N. approval. It's a cheap attack and you shouldn't contribute to it. Even if you only attack Kerry for a tactical error in choosing those words, you are aiding in the misrepresentation of his clear meaning.

Personally I think Kerry shouldn't have enabled Bush in characterizing a preventive war as a preemptive war at all.

I would like to hear you actually discuss why Kerry's "global test" is bad, Von, other than on a knee-jerk sounds-like-Kofi-Annan-bossin'-us-around level.

Discussion here, Iron.

As for our talking point:

The Democrats should make an ad juxtaposing some authoritative statement that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11, with clips of Rumsfeld and Bush confusing Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden.

This mocks Bush, makes a substantive point, and corrects a factual error that too many voters are all still making.

Or, you could make Willy Horton ad about A.Q. Khan. ("Willy Horton" is probably the wrong choice of words since there actually is a possibility that Pakistan's nuclear program and the WMD black market will get my family killed.)

Iron Lungfish:

Take a look at this thread -- http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2004/10/debate_roundup.html#comments.

My main beef with "global test" is at October 1, 2004 02:10 PM (which is primarily a response to Jes's insightful criticism; hey, I disagree with Jes, but I don't disrespect him.)

The reason "global test" is no good for the GOP is that you can't play the sentence, or even the phrase that it is a part of, as part of an ad. It just doesn't work for them.

Senator Kerry. What is your position on the whole concept of pre-emptive war?

Mr. Kerry The president always has the right and always has had the right for pre-emptive strike. That was a great doctrine throughout the cold war. And it was always one of the things we argued about with respect to arms control. No president through all of American history has ever ceded and nor would I the right to pre-empt in any way necessary to protect the United States of America.

But if and when you do it, Jim, you've got to do it in a way that passes the test. That passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing. And you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons.


Since Kerry didn't have long, vacant pauses in his speech--like certain other parties participating in the debate--it's impossible to snip this in an ad-usable way. That's primarily because the phrases "your countrymen" and "your people" rudely interpose themselves between the "global test" verbiage and the "prove to the world" verbiage.

And if you just say "Kerry said global test," you're really not doing anything other than preaching to the choir, the ones who are willing to take that half-measure of melodic snippet and sing it to the rafters in a full-blown aria. But once you start putting "global test" into a sentence or a paragraph, there's really nowhere you can go with it. There's no there there.

And regarding how blog-spinning affects real-media spinning - call me cynical, but I doubt that Russert plops his ass down in front of a computer to find out what kind of spin the boys at DKos or its sickly right-wing brother RedState are putting out. Blogger triumphalism to the contrary, we are not the new golden boys of media, attracting the eyes and ears of the Times and the WaPo, just because a sometime GOP operative kicked off Rathergate on a Free Republic post. Nor do I believe that I, as a generally left-of-center blogger, have the responsibility to start parroting whatever Terry McAuliffe decides are the Dem talking points on the Bush-Kerry debate. To do so is both inane - because I'm making a putz of myself - and silly, because I don't have the power to push memes on a level that matters in a presidential contest.

(And neither do Kos or Glenn Reynolds, whether any of us want to own up to this fact.)

Regarding the fact that the right-wing blogosphere is quicker to fall into lockstep behind its pointmen - well, what else is new?

trickster
Even if the edit out (a common technique) parts, Kerry finishes the thought using the past tense: "And you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons."

My guess - bounce around the internet for a few days and die a natural death.

What I want to know is why Bush hasn't addressed the imminent threat from Mt St Helens, even though lava is pouring out and eating through my legs right now!! Aahh!

von -- possibly you need to get on all the email lists I have inadvertently gotten connected to, but the Democrats seem fairly on message to me. Basic theme: "Kerry made the case against Bush's disastrous foreign policy -- and Bush couldn't take the heat" (from MoveOn email.) Subtheme (a), 'making the case': Bush tried to connect al Qaeda and Saddam; Kerry wouldn't let him get away with it. Hard-hitting critique of Iraq policy. Etc. Subtheme (b), 'couldn't take the heat': from the MoveOn email again: "John Kerry's performance was very strong. But what sealed the deal for many commentators was how rattled Bush got when confronted with the truth about his policies. The Washington Post derided his "stammering and pausing," the New York Times said he was "scowling and grimacing" and "petulant," the Boston Globe noted his "sighing, clenching his teeth, rolling his eyes," the LA Times said he seemed "tired and annoyed," and CBS News described Bush as "scowling at times and looking away in apparent disgust at others." Mark Halperin of ABC News summed it up: George Bush was "remarkably angry-seeming."

Kerry has said before that George Bush lives in a "fantasy world of spin." Last night that fantasy world began to crumble. Bush appeared angry that anyone would dare to challenge his view of the facts. Faced with the reality of the mess he has created in Iraq, and challenged for repeatedly misleading the American people, he retreated, falling back on his trite slogans over and over and over."

I quote MoveOn only because it was the easiest to retrieve from my email trash. But the same message, more or less, has come at me from a variety of sources. And frankly, I agree with it. Kerry was good, and Bush did seem to me lost and defensive. Your mileage may vary, of course.

"I don't think we want to get to how he's going to pay for all these promises. It's like a huge tax gap."

Particularly inappropriate in the context of tax cuts, wasn't it?

A few thoughts:

First off, I think "Bush looked weak" is probably a pretty good talking point -- it undercuts his emotional appeal, which is saying that he's got the strength to take on our enemies (and implicitly, that Democrats don't). There's more on the theme here, here, and on my own blog here.

(Speaking of undercutting his emotional appeals, by the way, there are a lot of folks who believe that Dubya is telling the truth that things are going well in Iraq, and there's a vast media conspiracy generating lies about him. It can be useful to point out that when he said, more than a year ago, that "major combat operations" had ended in Iraq, fewer than 140 Americans had died there, and the death toll is now over a thousand. So why do they believe what he's saying now?)

One last point: "Global test" does seem to be the Republican talking point of choice. "What did he mean?", they ask. The problem with that is that Kerry went on to say exactly what he meant -- not that anyone gets a veto, but rather that if you're going to take preemptive action, you have to be able to explain it afterwards, to your own citizens and everyone else, to avoid losing credibility down the line. It's a little mysterious that Dubya didn't get this -- Kerry explained it right in front of him. And the right-wing bloggers have less of an excuse. But regrettably, that won't stop them...

If "global test" is the best they can do, they should be in bad shape. If it works, the country is.

Isn't a "global test" as Kerry used the term pretty much exactly what Powell was trying to pass in his, shall we say, carelessly assembled UN speech? Doesn't it just mean that we have to have convincing reasons for a pre-emptive war?

Who disgrees with that?

Playing off Mr. Dodgson's "Bush looked weak" line--how is litle Alice, by the way?--I'd go with "Bush is a weak little man."

As I'm sure you all know, there have been few short Presidents. I'm quite sure that it was not an accident that, when the two men walked on to the stage last night, Mr. Bush stuck out his hand with a hearty grin from some distance away, nor yet by chance that Mr. Kerry walked right up to about 1" away from his opponent before he grasped that hand, thus assuring that a photograph would be taken of him looking down at Mr. Bush, while the latter looked up at him.

This will happen two more times.

I think "global test" ain't exactly the GOP Holy Grail.

The bottom line is that this was Bush's chance to deliver a knock-out blow.

He didn't.

Kerry met the threshold, and people will remember Bush as tired, repetitive, and inarticulate. Kerry gained a new lease on life, and I think the domestic policy debates are going to be even better for him.

The Fox camera-work on the height was great. The eyes had to line up, so Bush's podium was like a foot higher than Kerry's. Still didn't quite work.

Not that I'm really complaining. It's a sad fact that people associate silly things, like height, with ability to lead. It's irrational human nature that we shouldn't be celebrating.

von -- possibly you need to get on all the email lists I have inadvertently gotten connected to, but the Democrats seem fairly on message to me.

No thanks, Hilzoy! I'm up to my ears in spam as it is.

Business Week checks in. Under the headline 'See Bush Debate. See Him Squirm', we read:

"But in Coral Gables, Fla., last night, Bush looked -- at least for the first half of the debate -- like Elmer Befuddled, a commander-in-chief not in command.

Perhaps what was so unnerving was that Bush found himself in a foreign-policy debate with a seasoned politician who was espousing the same sort of measured, internationalist approach to a dangerous world that was the hallmark of his father's Presidency. Debating the security and future of the nation on live national television isn't easy -- but debating your Dad is downright scary. (...)

When Kerry, methodically making his case like the prosecutor he once was, said, "This President has made a colossal error of judgment" by invading Iraq, Bush looked like a 1960s teenager called on the carpet for cracking up the family Oldsmobile. At that moment, it was hard not to get the impression that young George wanted to be anyplace but where he found himself.

SPUTTERING SCREWUP.  The poignancy of a man ill-prepared for and overwhelmed by his job was never more apparent than when Bush said, "I never wanted to commit troops. When we were debating in 2000, I never dreamed I'd have to do that."

The message that Kerry hammered home was that, in fact, Bush did not have to "do that," did not have to send our soldiers -- at least not to Iraq.

But Bush, the onetime black sheep of his family, wanted to wipe away the "wimp factor" stain that his old man had left on the Bush clan. And so he rebelled against the family mantra of prudence in all things. Last night, he looked for all the world like a sputtering screwup -- again. "

Holy crap.

Why does Business Week hate America?

I quote MoveOn only because it was the easiest to retrieve from my email trash.

As a partisan lefty Democrat: hee! I love unintentional comedy ;)

The QUESTION OF THE DAY:

Does al Zarwari's recent tape tip the hand of an October surprise?

Sidereal (and everybody), speaking of Fox and the height of the candidates, check this out (via Kos).

And just in case anyone missed it, there's also the made-up Fox">http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_09_26.php#003551">Fox news story from this morning:

Rallying supporters in Tampa Friday, Kerry played up his performance in Thursday night's debate, in which many observers agreed the Massachusetts senator outperformed the president.

"Didn't my nails and cuticles look great? What a good debate!" Kerry said Friday.

With the foreign-policy debate in the history books, Kerry hopes to keep the pressure on and the sense of traction going.

Aides say he will step up attacks on the president in the next few days, and pivot somewhat to the domestic agenda, with a focus on women and abortion rights.

"It's about the Supreme Court. Women should like me! I do manicures," Kerry said.

Kerry still trails in actual horse-race polls, but aides say his performance was strong enough to rally his base and further appeal to voters ready for a change.

"I'm metrosexual — he's a cowboy," the Democratic candidate said of himself and his opponent.

A "metrosexual" is defined as an urbane male with a strong aesthetic sense who spends a great deal of time and money on his appearance and lifestyle.

About which Fox says: "Carl [Cameron] made a stupid mistake which he regrets. And he has been reprimanded for his lapse in judgment. It was a poor attempt at humor.”

Trickster, it's not clear to me whether that's skullduggery. It may be that the picture is slightly tilted past vertical - look at the line behind the candidates - but perhaps Kerry was just stooping at the moment so he could reach Bush's low-held hand...

My new home page

Just a late three-cents worth.

Von is independent (from what I've read here and elsewhere; is that you, Von, giving folks heat over at Paul Cella's site?) Although if he's not yet convinced of voting for Kerry and is leaning Libertarian, then he needs to be respun the other way 'round. ;)

Von is also right that Democrats are unfocused and tend not to move as a pack, like those other people. This is my favorite topic, as I relish yelling louder (in three word slogans; one of the words usually starts with f) and making any political discussion into a Irish bar fight.

That said, John Kerry's demeanor last night gave me some hope. Yes, his speech is somewhat convoluted at times, but he is ready to bring it. And with Hilzoy, Katherine, and many others so pungently explaining what is at stake, I think liberals are finally finding their single voice.

We need to be as ruthless as the Republicans, and believe me, this is an Irish bar fight that's just gonna move outside after the election, no matter who wins. I sense no good losers on the other side and they are my role models.


Rilkefan, I had thought of the possibility that it was a camera-angle artifact, but actually, looking at the blue line in the background as you suggested makes me think that it's not. If you'll notice, that blue line intersects Kerry's eye at almost precisely the same place in both photos, but the difference where it crosses Bush is quite dramatic. And if you look at the pars of the candidates that are visible, I think it's a right similar camera angle.

John T., I am more of a fan of reasoned discourse where persons with differing viewpoints educate each other to create a greater whole--but if we win this election and they respond by continuing heavy combat a la the last 12 years right through the honeymoon period without ever giving Kerry a chance to lead, then we will strap it up and take those f*ers down. Period.

SUSA poll:
Difference between percentage who thought Kerry won and percentage who thought Bush won, by state:
Washington: 20; Oregon, 19; Pennsylvania, 22; Florida, 14; Arkansas, 12. (I just picked the somewhat contested states, figuring that the fact that in NY 57% thought Kerry won while 24% thought Bush won would be less interesting. Though the fact that it was Kerry 39, Bush 41 in Texas was a bit surprising.)

There are also results for various cities.

"no good losers on the other side"

I offer my usual exemption of Moe Lane, my mother, Sebastian more or less, and my nice neighbor who finds me funny but probably damned for eternity.

Also, for the purposes of the Obsidian Wings forum, "Irish bar fight" is a metaphor for heavy drinking, loud yelling, and heavy drinking. Did I mention heavy drinking? Unless William Bennett is the room, in which case gambling and bit of shoving may in order.

Thank you and good night.

"Unless William Bennett is the room.."

"in the room" would work better. Although, I've seen Bennett in person and he was a room unto himself.

should read:

"in which gambling and a bit of shoving may be in order, for crying out loud."

Did I mention heavy drinking?

Just before the "Irish Bar Fight" is about to errupt, a good bartender always introduces the game of "Irish Standoff" which allows for blows and the affirmation of one's manhood but doesn't destroy the bar.

As for the debate, it was pretty boring with both parties avoiding a "Kodak moment". It is my understanding that the DNC is producing a visual display of Bush's looks whereas the RNC is going after Kerry's words. I'm not sure which will better resonate with the American public but the relative exercises are telling.

My favorite line was "Global Test" and after reading Trickster's parsing, that sound byte has legs.

Yes, Timmy. As Trickster said, if you just say "Kerry said global test," you're really not doing anything other than preaching to the choir, the ones who are willing to take that half-measure of melodic snippet and sing it to the rafters in a full-blown aria.

I see you wish to be included in that group...

Timmy
Did you actually watch the debate or did you just get your talkiing point from blogs?
Kerry put the words "global test" into context all by himself. "And you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons."
Notice the use of the past tense? As in after-action review.
Hmmm

I'm more than happy to be included in that Group (if half the choir buys it, victory come November, more importantly victory in the WaRI) so your comments really don't trouble me. Come over to Tacs some time, I will have a diary up by late Sunday detailing with why Kerry is truely an empty suit, as demonstrated in the debate.

In the interim, that melodic snippet continues to ring true, the Global Test meme was a foolish thing to bring up in debate.

[second verse same as the first].

Go Buffs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I did watch the debate, more importantly I read the entire transcript afterwards. Did you?

Global Test makes for a nice sound byte (and it has legs raising future doubts about Kerry), the rest of Kerry's words are far more telling.

Go Buffs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Before the debate, Kerry went to the spa, got his nails done, probably had a facial whereas Bush met with the huricane victims of Florida.

Now who is the priss and who is the ........

?
I would love for the BC04 campaign to run a commercial showing Kerry saying "global test" and cutting all context for his use of those words.
The press would be forced to put it in context and viewers would see how cynical and manipulative the BC campaign is.

I did watch the debate, more importantly I read the entire transcript afterwards. Did you?

*grin* You're not making a very convincing hand of it, Timmy: quoting two words out of context is no way to convince people that you actually read the transcript, let alone watched the debate.

Global Test makes for a nice sound byte (and it has legs raising future doubts about Kerry), the rest of Kerry's words are far more telling.

Yep. Far more telling than Bush's words. Glad you're not sufficiently lost in the choir to know it.

I would love for the BC04 campaign to run a commercial showing Kerry saying "global test" and cutting all context for his use of those words.

Yeah, wouldn't that be great? I really think the right-wing blogosphere, insofar as they have any influence upwards, have made a big mistake: picking out "global test" out of context, when in context it's such a good rebuke of Bush's attitude to war, is not going to win for them. Die-hard Bush supporters will cling to straws, but saying "Kerry said 'global test!'" isn't even a straw.

Bush said being president was "hard" about 18 times in 90 minutes. Maybe he's letting us know he's in over his head because it sounds like he's complaining.
There's a meme.

The thing I admire about Timmy the Wonder Dog is that he always holds his leash in his mouth to make it look like he's amusingly but genuinely interested in debate.

He reminds me of me.

John, we truely understand each other, throw out some red meat and watch them tear at it, just sit back and enjoy.

Jes and car depending on the MSM on bailing Kerry out. I like that but it wasn't very original.

The Buffs lost, I'm sad.

I would love for the BC04 campaign to run a commercial showing Kerry saying "global test" and cutting all context for his use of those words.

Is this close enough?

Trickster
Of course they couldn't actually use the tape of him saying those words. It's a step removed without Kerry's voice and I predict that commercial's impact will be a step removed as well.
While watching the debate it seemed as though Bush wasn't really all there. Running with this misquote just goes to show he wasn't there at all.
Now let's see if the press is made up of journalists or hacks.

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