We're going to get a visitor tomorrow: Huge Asteroid to Fly Past Earth Wednesday.
The largest asteroid ever known to pass near Earth is making a close celestial brush with the planet this week in an event that professional and backyard astronomers are watching closely.
The space rock, named Toutatis, will not hit Earth, despite rumors of possible doom that have circulated the Internet for months. Humanity is very fortunate there won't be an impact, as the asteroid is large enough to cause global devastation. Toutatis is about 2.9 miles long and 1.5 miles wide (4.6 by 2.4 kilometers).
On Wednesday, Sept. 29 it will be within a million miles of Earth, or about four times the distance to the Moon.
By the way, if something this size ever actually hits us, the odds that you or I will survive the experience will be so close to zero as to make no difference. Also, there isn't a damned thing that we could have done if Toutatis had decided to hit us, and there won't be even a chance of us ever doing a damned thing about it until such time as we have a viable space program that can meet these things somewhere rather farther away than Near Earth Orbit. In other words, our survival as a species depends pretty much on an extreme long shot never coming in. How long a shot? Beats me, but the Man in the Moon could tell you, you betcha.
Just a reminder.
I must say, if I'm going to go early, it would be a helluva way to exit.
Posted by: wilfred | September 28, 2004 at 01:51 PM
I heard a wicked cool segment on some radio show last night about it. Apparently sending in Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck is not actually the best way to deal with a potential collision.
Posted by: praktike | September 28, 2004 at 01:54 PM
Ya, if I'm gonna get smooshed by famous people riding a giant rock, I'd at least prefer it to be a woman.
Posted by: Nathan Hamm | September 28, 2004 at 02:01 PM
A future impact will not be blogged?! Darn. I was looking forward to arguing about the sizes particulate matter and tectonic plate displacement.
Posted by: carsick | September 28, 2004 at 02:02 PM
The probability of an event after it's occurred is unity.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 02:11 PM
You know, of all the natural events that could wipe us out, I'm not so concerned about a gigantic asteroid. Now, Yellowstone erupting again, that's something to be concerned about. Or the western edge of the Canary Islands finally letting go and creating a tsunami that wipes out the East Coast.
Posted by: Josh | September 28, 2004 at 02:19 PM
Josh-
How far inland will I have to be?
Posted by: Ugh | September 28, 2004 at 02:41 PM
From what I understand...
Yellowstone erupting? Not so likely.
A major tsunami coming toward the East Coast? The odds in favor seem to be getting smaller every year.
By the way, they say Mt. St. Helens is getting interesting again.
Posted by: carsick | September 28, 2004 at 02:53 PM
You could walk out your door tomorrow and get hit by a bus.
If there's an asteroid out there with our name on it, then I guess that's all she wrote for Homo Sapiens. Sad, but I'm not sure what we could do about it until space travel becomes a lot cheaper.
Posted by: Chuchundra | September 28, 2004 at 02:54 PM
Ugh: How far inland will I have to be?
The megatsunami wave is estimated to be 90 meters (300 feet) high according to this.
Surf city.
Posted by: double-plus-ungood | September 28, 2004 at 02:56 PM
From what I understand...
Yellowstone erupting? Not so likely.
Likely to happen in our lifetimes? No. Likely to happen again ever? Almost certain.
Posted by: Josh | September 28, 2004 at 03:17 PM
Wonderful. That happens to be just under the max elevation of Florida. Meanwhile, my house is just under 100 feet above sea level. A wave that big would sweep nearly the whole population of Florida out to sea.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 03:24 PM
Slarti, I'd imagine that the wave would not continue across the entire stae, maybe just devaestate everything withing ten or twenty miles from the ocean. The height of the wave would also depend on the shape and size continental shelf.
Not to worry, though, it's supposed to happen sometime in the next few thousand years.
Posted by: double-plus-ungood | September 28, 2004 at 03:43 PM
" it would be a helluva way to exit."
Depends. 30% chance of a land strike, in which case it'd probably involve a lot of starvation. Not so great. On an ocean strike, it'd involve either being crushed by a lot of ocean/building, or starvation as the global economy is completely destroyed. Actually being hit by the rock would be kind of a cool way to go, but very unlikely.
"By the way, they say Mt. St. Helens is getting interesting again."
Potential-mudslides-interesting. Not blowing-the-top-off-the-mountain interesting.
"That happens to be just under the max elevation of Florida."
You have to take into account the fact that the height of the wave decreases drastically as it starts rolling over land and loses impetus. Of course, since nearly the whole population of everywhere is on a coastline, it doesn't matter much.
Nice thing about Seattle is you get all the benefits of being on a coastline with Puget Sound, but the Olympic Peninsula shields us from tsunamis. Thanks, guys.
Posted by: sidereal | September 28, 2004 at 03:46 PM
That's an excellent point (made in parallel by sidereal, it ought to be noted). My defense is I've read far too much Niven/Pournelle.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 04:04 PM
My defense is I've read far too much Niven/Pournelle.
Mmmmmmmm, jerky.
Posted by: crionna | September 28, 2004 at 04:17 PM
Slarti
Maybe it's time to look for property in the Florida summer bird's retreat in the mountains near temperate Ashville North Carolina.
Posted by: carsick | September 28, 2004 at 04:21 PM
By the bye, there are some wonderful crackpot websites out there dealing with the Yellowstone caldera like this one. Sample quote: "A source that has demonstrated first-hand knowledge of the park's history and recent geothermal events stated the following: “The American people are not being told that the explosion of this 'super volcano' could happen at any moment." "
Posted by: Josh | September 28, 2004 at 04:25 PM
Nonono. Idaho. My own, private Idaho subterranean retreat. Under ground, like a wild potato.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 04:40 PM
I hadn't realized Florida was that low. (Though I'd be less concerned with tsunamis than with hurricanes, higher sea levels, and other side effects of climate change.)
My part of the country is probably among the least vulnerable to natural disasters, but now we're the most likely targets of terrorist attacks. Ah well.
To see some reasons to hope that asteroids keep missing this little planet: stunning low level aerial photographs of the earth, via Teresa Nielsen Hayden.
I've been here, here, possibly here, and to places much like this, this, and this.
Posted by: marguerite | September 28, 2004 at 04:47 PM
Yes, but have you ever been to any of these places?
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 04:54 PM
Ah. That first site was violating this site's copyright--many more photos there. Ignore the political commentary if it's going to annoy you, though.
Posted by: marguerite | September 28, 2004 at 05:00 PM
Here's a much more comprehensive set of views, for those who are into such things. This is one of my faves.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 05:07 PM
Sorry, marguerite. The photos are stunning. Wasn't ignoring, just noting that the Earth has a history of 'roids.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 28, 2004 at 05:09 PM
Mmmmmmmm, jerky.
And cannibalism! Let's not forget the cannibalism.
Funny, I've read Lucifer's Hammer only once and never wanted to read it again, but bits of it still pop up in the back of my head when I least want them to.
Of course, Science of Discworld points out that everything in this universe is just temporary anyway. We're between asteroids right now, but there'll be one along before Rincewind gets back from lunch.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 28, 2004 at 05:19 PM
Ahh, Earth from the Air. That guy's photos really are quite stunning, even if you don't like his politics. My wife and I ran into an outdoor exhibition of his outside the Natural History Museum in London last summer. We ended up spending about two hrs or so looking at these instead of going to the Victoria and Albert museum for an exhibition on Art-Deco design. Alas, we didn't realize that it was the last day for that exhibit and we ended up missing it.
Posted by: Carpbasman | September 28, 2004 at 06:23 PM
On the gripping hand, it may have been an impact that kept mammals from being permanent dinosnacks, so you can't really complain.
Posted by: sidereal | September 28, 2004 at 06:23 PM
you can't really complain
Hey! I can complain about anything.
Complaining that some day giant intelligent cockroaches will be blogging about how an asteroid impact is the only thing that kept them from being permanently underfoot is a bit of a stretch, though. After all, I'm not going to be around to shudder at it.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 28, 2004 at 06:54 PM
And who are we to deny Homo Blattodea his rightful place in history? Bring the meteors on. . that's what I say.
Posted by: sidereal | September 28, 2004 at 07:32 PM
Megaloblatta sapiens, not Homo Blattodea, surely. Giant intelligent cockroaches, yes: humaniform cockroaches, no.
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 28, 2004 at 07:48 PM
Er. . . yes.
But in my version, the meteors are highly irradiating, resulting in bizarre spontaneous gene splicing and -- inevitably -- primate cockroaches.
Posted by: sidereal | September 28, 2004 at 08:01 PM
I thought we had enough nuclear warheads to blow a quarter of the Earth's crust off? What's wrong with sending them all up there to inflict similar damage to an asteroid?
Posted by: McDuff | September 28, 2004 at 08:26 PM
I thought we had enough nuclear warheads to blow a quarter of the Earth's crust off? What's wrong with sending them all up there to inflict similar damage to an asteroid?
Ah hah, so that's how the asteroid turned into a highly-irradiating meteor shower, resulting in spontaneous gene splicing and primate cockroaches.
Okay. Hail, Homo Blattodea!
Posted by: Jesurgislac | September 28, 2004 at 08:33 PM
McDuff: there are rocks out there so large that when one of them ran into the earth it ripped apart the planet so violently that the Moon formed. (SciAm had a short piece about this.) The ELE (extinction level event) that knocked off the dinosaurs was so powerful that the entire planet was likely in shadow for years, due to the dust in the atmosphere. Talk about tough ancestors!
sending our nuke fleet against a rock like that is like shooting spitballs at a nolan ryan fastball.
or so i've read.
Francis
Posted by: fdl | September 28, 2004 at 08:43 PM
Boy, and I thought I was feeling stressed out before I started reading about planetary-near-death-experiences. Toss in the cockroach references (of which I have a horribly phobia and shudder at the mere mention of) and the nukes and this is really the thread from MC's own personal hell. Assuming there are no catastrophic asteroid deviations and we make it through the rest of the week, can we have a nice recipe slam thread or something to look forward to for those of us with weaker nerves and more delicate constitutions?
Posted by: mc_masterchef | September 28, 2004 at 11:57 PM
McDuff, part of the reason that nukes make a big blast is that their is a bunch of air holding the blast in. Like in the olden days, folks used sandbags to hold/point blasts during demolition (nowadays everyone uses shaped charges). Pretty much anything over 100 megatons will pop the atmosphere up like a bubble, making pretty much all the blast energy go up, where it is not likely to do damage to anything other than low flying satellites.
Why not nuke asteroids? There is nothing for the blast to affect, almost all the energy will go off the side, giving it a slight push.
Posted by: Peter | September 29, 2004 at 05:32 PM
An asteroid impact wouldn't end life on earth. Even it was big enough to melt the entire Earth's surface.
Posted by: victor falk | September 30, 2004 at 12:34 PM
Two comments, from someone who knows next to nothing about bacteria:
First, no bacteria is going to survive in the core of an operating reactor. I'd think that the molecules would come apart at that temperature (typically 700 degrees Fahrenheit). Second, I've never, ever seen it suggested that any of the asteroid strikes before or since the K-T boundary did anything like melt the entire surface of the Earth.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 30, 2004 at 01:23 PM
The probability of an event after it's occurred is unity.
In my view the probability of such events was unity before, too...
What was the name of the netnewsgroup that was devoted to figuring out how to wipe out all life on earth? I seem to recall something about van Neumann machines building hydrogen bombs along ocean tectonic boundaries...
Posted by: rilkefan | September 30, 2004 at 01:31 PM
I guess that's a different wording to the corollary, which I chose not to post:
Any event having nonzero probability will occur, eventually.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 30, 2004 at 01:34 PM
"Any event having nonzero probability will occur, eventually."
I keep telling the exact same thing to the guy in the window at the track. So far no luck though.
Posted by: carsick | September 30, 2004 at 01:41 PM
Eventually can take longer than you'd like.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | September 30, 2004 at 01:45 PM
Slart, I was speaking from the (minority) physicists' view that there's no such thing as time, that past and future are equivalent, that everything's determined by the initial conditions.
(I'm of the super-minority position that the initial conditions are determined, too.) I don't agree with the "nonzero ... will occur" view, at least if "nonzero" is based on incomplete information.
Posted by: rilkefan | September 30, 2004 at 01:47 PM
Ok, damnit, I give up. I have opinions on the subject, but they're based much more on wishful thinking than on science.
And of course the nonzero probability corrolary falls apart if one considers finite time. I think.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | October 04, 2004 at 01:23 AM