Progress

I was just thinking the other day about how world events have continued to move faster than we expect them to over the past half century. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the relatively peaceful end of the Soviet Union, and now, ahead of schedule, an interim government is sworn in in Iraq, including the naming of the Iraqi President: Sunni Arab tribal leader Ghazi al-Yawar. And with the disbanding of the Governing Council four weeks early, there's reason to be encouraged that this team may in fact be anxious for democracy.

However, there are, of course, a few key questions still unanswered:

1. Legitimacy: Will the Iraqi people view this interim government as independent of the US or merely puppets. Despite Brahimi's initial desire that this interim government NOT be made up of Governing Council members, both the President and Prime Minister are "the favoured candidates of the Iraqi Governing Council." Given that polls of the GC have reflected widespread distrust, the jury is definitely still out (I do expect we'll hear more about this soon).

2. Full sovereignty: "In his first public statements after his appointment, Mr. Yawar said he wanted the United Nations Security Council to grant the country "full sovereignty" in a resolution now under discussion in New York."

   "We the Iraqis look forward to being granted full sovereignty through a Security Council resolution to enable us to rebuild a free, independent, democratic and federal unified homeland," he said at a news conference.

   Mr. Zebari, the newly appointed foreign minister, was heading for New York to lobby the United Nations for full sovereignty, news agencies reported.

   Last week, Mr. Yawar criticized the draft resolution for giving Iraqis only limited control over the American troops that will remain in Iraq after the transfer of sovereignty.

   The Bush administration argues that the resolution guarantees full sovereignty.

3. Security: The Bush Administration is cautioning everyone that we should expect to see continued (possibly increased) violence in response to this announcment. And indeed, "A car bomb exploded today outside the Baghdad headquarters of one of Iraq's two main Kurdish parties, killing at least three people and injuring at least 20, an American military official said." AND "A car bomb exploded near the U.S. military base in northern Iraq on Tuesday" killing 11.

But, as a news analyst said after the President spoke about this progress today, the folks in the White House seem to have a new bounce in their steps. Let me cross the divide and congratulate them on this important progress.

Comments

[asdf]

This may be good news, although I'm slightly suspicious that we've traded the Tikritis for the Shammars of Mosul. The good news about the Shammar tribe seems to be that it's the largest and most powerful tribe in Iraq, consists of both Shia and Sunnis, has fairly good relations with the Kurds, and Crown Prince Abdullah's mother was of the Shammar Tribe.

[JimPortlandOR]

My thoughts on the NYT and WaPo stories today:

I agree, Edward, that the jury is still out on Iraqi-domestic support for the new government. It is likely proportional to how much they assert independence from the US.

The best thing for both Kerry and Bush would be strong assertion of Iraqi control by the new government. They are the most likely to force the UN Security Council into a resolution that really spells out and supports actual sovereignty, and that in turn would likely lead to more internationalization of the security forces (with no US overall control).

BushCo loses the hidden control they want, but the US role is more contained, saving lives. We can retreat to enclaves waiting for the Iraqi elections in 1/05. Iraqi forces have a better probability of containing violence, if the government gains popular support. The US will never gain back support of the people.

They might even do us the favor of asking the US forces to leave (soon or after 1/05).....

Withdrawal by request would be good for Kerry, and no-so-good for Bush as an election issue, since Bush might be explaining how his actions caused us to thrown out.

I'm hoping that 'freedom and democracy' will be asserted by Iraqis and will live with whatever actual results they come up with.

[Jadegold]

It all depends on your definition of "full sovreignty."

Given the fact we're building over a dozen permanent military bases in Iraq--I seriously doubt we're leaving any time soon.

[The Commissar]

Nyet, Nyet, NYET!!!

Is qvagmire!