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April 20, 2004

Comments

If it's likely, what's the considered opinion on keeping Coalition troops there? Kevin Drum was sort of discussing this the other day; I think he concluded that if there's a chance of avoiding civil war, that's a good argument for keeping troops in (although with increased resources, otherwise Drum suspects civil war will happen anyway).

If civil war is inevitable, what are we looking at as a result? How easy would it be to influence the result, and should we even be thinking about doing that (well, quite probably)? I think few people want a theocracy in Iraq, even a 'benign' one. Ayatollah Sistani seems to be wiser than most bloggers who've never met him or been to Iraq make him out to be, but even so...

I'd like to know how much civil war would be the 'inevitable' result of the invasion, or whether it could have been avoided by different management of the situation. It'd blow the only major reason for invading Iraq - humanitarian - out of the water if another bad regime were installed.

I'd like to know how much civil war would be the 'inevitable' result of the invasion

That's most likely impossible to assess...but it was certainly one of the cautions cited before the invasion, so there's no pretending it's a surprise or that steps shouldn't have been taken to avoid it. The CPA memo suggests they were not.

I haven't a clue as to what is going on Iraq. Or maybe I do, but don't want to believe my eyes.

"Civil War" I really can't see it, unless we allow it, and I can't see it even then. What, Muqtada Sadr gonna march his 5000 man militia up to Fallujah or Mosul and go to battle?

Low level terrorism and assassinations, maybe, something like Lebanon or Bosnia, but those were small countries. With 25 million people, 100 could die every day for a year, and most of the country would barely notice. To be brutal about it.

I would even like to think we are doing something very subtle and intelligent( even if evil), like creating conditions where Sistani would beg Chalabi to take charge as dictator. But the Kurds wouldn't stand for it, Chalabi couldn't beat the Kurds, and we aren't going to do it for him.

Maybe chaos is the goal.

With 25 million people, 100 could die every day for a year, and most of the country would barely notice. To be brutal about it.

It depends on how they die. Otherwise one could argue that, with 280 million people, 3000 could die on one day and most of the US would barely have noticed 9/11.

Point taken.

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