Shooting the wounded?

Poster Fredrik Nyman provided us* with a link to a TCS column by John Ellis called Shooting the Wounded, which gives some suggestions on how Kerry should run the next stage of his campaign. In short, Ellis advocates a strategy first formulated by Lee Atwater (whose name has much the same effect on Democrats as Nathan Bedford Forrest's did on whatever Union army was facing him at the time, and not for completely dissimilar reasons**):

The turning point of the 1988 Republican presidential nomination campaign came just after the New Hampshire primary, where then-Vice President George H.W. Bush had bounced back from a humiliating third-place finish in Iowa to defeat Sen. Bob Dole by 9 percentage points. In the days that followed, a debate raged within the Bush campaign about how to allocate its remaining resources. Campaign strategist Lee Atwater argued that the only thing to do was dump everything into South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states that followed three days later. "Shoot the wounded," said Atwater at the time, "that's my view."

Atwater's view prevailed. The Bush campaign buried South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states under an avalanche of money, organizational muscle, surrogates and media advertisements. When the votes were counted, Bush had run the table, sweeping all but the states of Washington and Missouri, and the race was over.

It's certainly an option for Kerry, but I'm not entirely certain that it's the best one, for two reasons. First off, there's no assurances that it'd actually work. Next Tuesday's primaries include South Carolina's, and Kerry may not be in the best of odor there right now. Of the candidates that he's dealing with, Dean still has the cash and the followers (even if he for some strange reason no longer has Joe Trippi***) and if either Clark and Edwards are going to redirect all power to the forward phasers for one last shot, next week would be the time to do it. One bad misstep and Kerry looks like a clumsy bully instead of an unstoppable force... which will be the end of his campaign. Even if he doesn't misstep, the other candidates know quite well that all they have to do is hold out and keep Kerry from getting enough delegates to win outright. They may not succeed, but they're more likely to try.

The other reason is psychological; is Kerry really capable of being inexorable? Ruthless, sure - he's a United States Senator; ruthlessness is something that gets picked up no later than three years in a Senator's first term - but can Kerry project the sense of inevitability about and around him? From what I can see and have seen... no, I don't think that he can. It requires chutzpah - which he has, or at least had - and the instinct to know when to let a gamble ride - which he doesn't. Kerry's not the gambling type; he's gotten where he is by playing it careful, safe, methodical and, whenever possible, covering both sides of his bets. In short, you need to be a bit of a bad-*ss motherf*cker to follow Ellis' advice, and Kerry just ain't one****.

True, neither is George Bush Sr. - but he did have Lee to advise him in 1988, and Lee was enough of a bad-*ss motherf*cker for two people.

Moe

*Not a royal 'us', just a regular 'all of us here'. If it were a royal us, it'd be Us.

**Metaphorically speaking. Although, truth be told, you had to wonder sometimes just how far Atwater was prepared to go.

***Joe, just so you know, the Republicans can always use a good organization maven. Just think about it, that's all I ask.

****And if he does do all of this and wins, won't I look like a goof?

Comments

[Katherine]

Third reason: Dean's supporters have deep pockets (collectively, at least) and long memories.

[The Commissar]

Re: N.B. Forrest

Commissar must confess to skimming in the first degree. "Lee Atwater ... did ... N.B. Forrest ... same ... 'shoot the wounded'"

Knowing NBF to be a real SOB (and a KKK), I read into this that HE had shot the wounded.

Oops.

[Thorley Winston]

Katherine wrote:

Third reason: Dean's supporters have deep pockets (collectively, at least) and long memories.

Evidently not as deep as some would like to believe:

Howard Dean will not air ads in any of the seven states holding elections next week, officials said Thursday, a risky strategy that puts him at a distinct disadvantage with high-spending rivals for the Democratic nomination.

With his money and momentum depleted, Dean decided to save his ad money for the Feb. 7 elections in Michigan and Washington state and, 10 days later, the primary in Wisconsin, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

I seem to recall that shortly after Dean’s embarrassing defeat in his neighboring State of Vermont, (in addition to changing campaign managers) it was announced that his staffers might not be paid for the next couple of weeks. Having worked on several campaigns both successful and not, I doubt that letting his opponents get even further ahead in delegates is going to serve him as well in Michigan and Washington even if he is able to devote more resources in those States. Momentum matters and by that time, we could see the front runner’s fund raising efforts go into full bore.