Cheney rumor.

Because, SotU or no SotU, the blogging must go on. Besides, everybody else is parsing it to death and beyond.

Citizen Smash has posted a rumor that Cheney's going to not serve a second term; granted, he already said that he would (and Bush has already said that he'd be on the ticket), but considering Cheney's history of heart disease that's not a particular problem. The idea is to have a healthy Vice President, after all.

Let me just note three things about this:

1). If true, don't expect this to be announced until just before the convention. No sense in giving the Democrats any time to prepare.

2). If true, don't expect it to be either Guiliani or Rice, alas. The first has health problems himself and the second has never run for public office before. Whoever gets the nod will be the heir presumptive for '08: they'll front-load somebody with experience in government and groom him or her throughout Bush's second term*.

3). If the above happens, Jeb won't be running in '08. Which is just as well for him, as I expect that the Democrats will probably win that particular election cycle anyway.

Moe

*Yes, yes, many of the people reading this are dedicated to the idea of making sure Bush doesn't have a second term as President.

Comments

[M. Scott Eiland]

"If true, don't expect it to be either Guiliani or Rice, alas. The first has health problems himself"

I don't think that would be the problem--the fact that he has a fair amount of personal and political baggage that would turn off the right wing of the party--along with his unfortunate connection to the disastrous goobernatorial (spelling intentional) campaign of Bill Simon in CA--would tend to take the luster that would otherwise attach to him as the heroic figure of 9/11. I had him as a front-runner for VP in 2004 at one point, but events have passed him by.

"and the second has never run for public office before. Whoever gets the nod will be the heir presumptive for '08: they'll front-load somebody with experience in government and groom him or her throughout Bush's second term*."

Perhaps, but the Republicans don't have a deep bench right now, and considering that Bush the Elder was willing to carry J. Danforth Quayle as a running mate *twice*, I don't think that Condi Rice's electoral inexperience would be that big a problem--she's shown that she's capable of handling herself in front of the press. At least as far as those not besotted with the thought of seeing her frog-marched into custody over the Plame affair is concerned, anyway.

[Matthew Stinson]

It's a silly rumor, but, oddly enough one that's that bigger than just the blogosphere -- my pop, who doesn't read blogs, suggested Bush might can Cheney and bring in Rudy the other day.

Me, I think Cheney is here to stay, but I'd like to see Ashcroft leave and be replaced by Rudy. The health problems won't matter as much with him as Att'y General, and it gives him a very public platform from which to launch future campaigns.

[marky]

If one Bush is good, then two are better, don't you think? We can have a deaf man/dyslexic idiot team with W./Jeb

[arc]

I think it really depends on who the Dems nominate. If by the end of the Dem convention their nominee is gaining ground and looks like the election is going their way then a change will happen.

Cheney is a team player and would resign for the team. Then the GOP will triangulate the Dems by nominating a woman, a minority or somebody state the GOP might not win. Rice is a good choice, but too good to be true. I don't think the GOP bench is empty, just hasn't been tapped in a long time. Bush was the GOP consensus in 00 and none of the big guns came out to contest it.

Jeb won't run in 08 unless GW looses this time. In fact I don't think Jeb will ever get his chance to run for Pres. By 12 he will be 59 and we will be ankle deep in the SS/MC disaster. Who will want to take on that disaster?

arc

[mc_masterchef]

My thought would be that if it's not going to be Cheney, it'll be Frist, but what do I know.

[M. Scott Eiland]

"Me, I think Cheney is here to stay, but I'd like to see Ashcroft leave and be replaced by Rudy."

I'd be for that--Ashcroft isn't EEEVIL INCARNATE (as the Left makes him out to be), but I've never been too impressed with him, and wouldn't mind seeing him depart after the next election.

[arc]

mc

Frist is a good choice and I know he wants to run (friend is on his staff), but I don't see how it helps Bush in the election, other than to counter a potential MD deficiency if Dean gets in.

arc

[carpeicthus]

Rudy's more qualified as AG, but given his authoritarian proclivities as both attorney and mayor, he's one of the very few replacements for Ashcroft that wouldn't make me scream "Yippee!"

[sidereal]

Bush/Dean.

"Fool me once. Shame on you. Fool me. . f-fool me twice. . YAAAAAAAAARGH!"