by liberal japonicus
Sure that I'm reaching too hard in the title, but the juxtaposition of the bloodlust invoked when celebrating a white guy gunning down a CEO and the editorial tut-tutting that is taking place in talk about the various forces that are now in the ascendancy with Assad out is, well, interesting. I guess the difference is that those guys are jihadists and our guy was a white guy with a bad back. Or that fighting against a 50 year old dictatorship requires proportionality but dealing with health insurance means never having to say you're sorry. Of course, Syria was run by an eye doctor, so it gets complicated.
This politico article suggests that Eric Hobsbawm's 1959 book Primitive Rebels points to an explanation for why we like bad boys so much, but I think his book Bandits might be better, the former (as the title suggests) really leans into the agricultural, but Bandits looks more at the opposition to goverment control. However, as he argues that banditry develops out of an agricultural context and banditry is in danger of being eliminated as the state displays a greater concentration of power, it seems he's in thrall to a Marxist historical argument that imagines a historical progression. The shooting of a CEO in broad daylight, the politico article suggests, is indicative of an "absence of a strong and responsive government". However, that leans into the idea that 'strong and responsive' are obviously positive terms. But it looks like, if you think of those terms as negatives, government is stronger and more responsive than ever, and the shooting a reflection of that. Historical materialism? Or an indication that the US, despite whatever strengths it has, can't organize a single payer system to save itself.
But beyond the terrible pun, the bulk of this post is stuff I've been reading about Syria and my thoughts.
This discussion from the Council on Foreign Affairs is generally interesting and I like the frame of 'catastrophic success' in describing what has happened, even though I think Eliot Abrams' contributions, especially towards the end, are shot thru with the kind of thinking that brought you Iran-Contra. An interesting pull graf
...this is a recurring problem in Turkish foreign policy. They think they have some sort of cultural affinity with the Arab world and they understand these people better than anybody else, and then they get involved in something and they realize that they actually have no control and no influence, and they’re going to be in the middle of a mess in the middle of Damascus if, in fact, that’s what Erdogan thinks he’s doing, is recreating a government in, basically, Turkey’s image. That was the goal when Erdogan was out there publicly demanding that Assad must go, and privately asking the Obama administration to invade Syria but from Jordan. So it’s entirely believable that the Turks have been deeply, deeply involved in this, especially after Aleppo went from limited operation to catastrophic success.
The round table consensus of Erdogan's support makes me wonder about the Kurds, since there is no love lost there, but this link reports about Erdogan's recent moves with the Kurds. I'm not sure what the word is, but it reminds me of Flem Snopes in Faulkner's Wild Horses, who is always able to stay on top, despite the fact that everyone doesn't trust him. Bizarrely enough, there is a strong relationship between Turkey and Japan, based on the Japanese helping the Ottoman frigate Ertugrul, something that always gets trotted out when Turkey comes up.
There isn't as much discussion about Russia, except to laugh at them, but I'm really curious what Russia will do to keep the naval bases they have. There is this Atlantic article that is behind a paywall, however, the premise, that the Russians would try and set up an Alawite state is not really in the cards which makes me wonder if it was a trial balloon that got shot down. Israel has been striking the Syrian naval bases in Latakia and airfield in Tartus, which were Russian bases, and it sounds like Russia is just trying to negotiate with the interim government to retain those bases.
Reading about Alawite minority is quite interesting. Assad was a member of the group and the family's ascension to power was at the expense of Sunni believers, and some reports suggest that the infrastructure for control of the state was dependent on installing Alawite into particular positions. This link was written by a high school senior(!) but following the links, it looks good. The page mentions a fascinating Alawite practice of taqiyya, which is one reason why information on Alawism is not readily available. It is not unique to Alawites, but they do seem to take it further. The wikipedia page has this quote from TE Lawrence's Seven Pillars of Wisdom.
The sect, vital in itself, was clannish in feeling and politics. One Nosairi (=Nusayri, a self appelation of the group) would not betray another, and would hardly not betray an unbeliever. Their villages lay in patches down the main hills to the Tripoli gap. They spoke Arabic, but had lived there since the beginning of Greek letters in Syria. Usually they stood aside from affairs, and left the Turkish Government alone in hope of reciprocity
Alawism is supposed to be an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, and Assad pushed that, which is why Hezbollah (Shi'ite Islam) and Iran were backers along with Russia, and when Russia (because of Ukraine) and Hezbollah (because of Israel) were weakened, it had the effect of knocking out the supports, which is also why Sunni countries like Egypt and the rich Gulf states are not saying much.
The whole situation in Syria is even more interesting because of the number of Syrian refugees. This UNCR doc says it is 14 million and other sources say that Turkey has 3 million, Lebanon and Jordan have another 1.4 milllion. Germany has 500,000, but since Merkel allowed Syrians fleeing the civil war to not close the border, this BBC article says that there are a million, which is turning into fodder for the rightist parties.
It's also going to be interesting to see how Trump squares this circle. Maybe he'll send Tulsi Gabbard there.
The curse of interesting times. Have at it.
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