by Doctor Science
This is your Brexit watch/results thread.
I have had only a vague, distant impression about what's driving Brexit, and only within the past week or so did I realize how close the vote was going to be. For US votes, I follow Sam Wang and 538 for their data-driven, boring approach. The nearest equivalent I can find for the UK is YouGov, where I guess I'll be following results. Their polling shows a map with a vaguely familiar pattern, if you swap blue and red:
Remain is strong in the cities, Leave in the more rural areas. But why is Leave so popular in the estuaries of the Wash and Thames? Why is Scotland all pro-Remain, when the Scottish independence vote was divisive? If the rest of the UK votes Leave, will Scotland vote for Independence and join the EU?
As for the merits of the two sides, I defer to Hugh Hancock, who's done exhaustive work fact-checking them. His conclusion:
I came into this leaning cautiously to Remain. However, I really hoped to find that my initial impressions of Leave were wildly wrong, and I was hoping they had very strong arguments.
Why? Because the country might vote for Leave. And if that happens I'd much rather be saying "well, at the end of the day both sides have a good point" than "oh god, oh god, we're in real trouble now".
Unfortunately, "well, at the end of the day both sides have a good point" is not what I found.
At every single turn, I found that the Leave campaign's arguments were founded on lies. Sorry, it's as simple as that. I wish it wasn't.
Wow, a political issue where one side consistently lies. That, too, is kind of familiar.
How much of this whole business is driven by Rupert Murdoch's hatred of the EU? Why is the vote going to be so close? How can David Cameron survive politically, when he's supporting Remain while his voters Leave?
Over to you, Nigel and our other Britfriends, and best of luck.