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November 25, 2008

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Shorter Iran to the United States:

pwn3d

Eric, sorry to break it to you, but the real reality doesn't matter, only the perceived reality in 2-3-5 years from now.

And if Iraq becomes, as I suspect it will, a client state of Iraq after we leave, it won't be Bush who will be blamed, but Obama.

Even if Obama does get Iran to stop its nuclear program, it won't matter, because there will be those who will believe it still has one unless it can prove it doesn't, and we know how well trying to prove a negative worked in Iraq.

It was obvious from the beginning of the occupation, when the US worked to marginalize Sadr rather than try to work with him, that Iran was going to end up being the biggest winner from this whole fiasco. (And don't believe anybody that says Sadr wouldn't have worked with the US.)

But the perception is the only thing that will matter.

Little doubt that Iranian influence within the Iraqi government has been the best kept secret of the entire occupation. Six or eight months ago, when the "special groups" from Iran were all the rage, I called both my senators in Washington and complained about how we could be supporting a government in Iraq that was trained and supported by the "terrorist" Quds Force. They had no clue what I was talking about.

Little doubt that Iranian influence within the Iraqi government has been the best kept secret of the entire occupation. Six or eight months ago, when the "special groups" from Iran were all the rage, I called both my senators in Washington and complained about how we could be supporting a government in Iraq that was trained and supported by the "terrorist" Quds Force. They had no clue what I was talking about.

But the perception is the only thing that will matter.

With respect, I more than disagree with this.

If there is one thing that I hope we will take away from the last eight years, it is that reality always trumps perception.

Always, always, always.

Iraq may well become a client state of Iran. That's because, among other things, they are next to each other, and Iraq and the people in Iraq have a hell of a lot more in common with Iran than they do with us.

I have no doubt that people here will hold Obama responsible. That's because they have their heads where their heads don't belong.

It's time to stop basing our foreign policy and our view of the world on what Foghorn Leghorn types like Kagan think or say. The man's head is up his own @ss. Irretrievably, apparently.

Reality always trumps. If you don't want the bear to eat you, you stick with reality.

Thanks -

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Whatnot


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