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September 18, 2008

Comments

I usually think of "fungible" as "fungible," at least for the past thirty-five years or so, when I talk about something being fungible; it's much easier to use the word than to try to get the concept across without it.

I always think of a fungo bat. It's fortunate that I moved away from the US or I would be one of those guys watching ESPN 24 hours a day.

As a Canadian I would be happy if a wall was built between our countries to keep the crazy out.

Any chance of that?

We'll give you oil.

Haiku for Sarah Palin:

Flagging molecules.
Fungible commodity.
Fail? Unpossible!

Haiku for Sarah Palin

* Polite Japanese Golf Clap *

I usually think of "fungible" as "fungible," at least for the past thirty-five years or so, when I talk about something being fungible; it's much easier to use the word than to try to get the concept across without it.

If you look at the EIA's Energy Flow chart [pdf], you'll see that, in 2007, the US produced 10.80 quadrillion BTUs (QBTU) of its own crude oil, imported 28.70 QBTUs of petroleum and exported 2.93 QBTUs of petroleum. So, 2.93/39.50 = 7.4%. That's how much oil is being exported out of the country. Seven percent.

Once again, McCain/Palin focus on the really "big" numbers.

nor even a mayor of even a very small town!

Even SHE knew that. Why else would she, after cutting the budget for everything, find 90k to hire someone to do her job for her. Um, the town had a measly 5100 people in it at the time and she couldn't get her act together enough for the job at hand? "Oh that ribbon cutting this morning at the Donut Hole Drivethru was exhausting, I think I need the rest of the week off..."

And this one can't be a hard topic to research . . .

These guys' optimistic estimate of recoverable oil in ANWR is 16 billion barrels.

The USGS puts the NPRA recoverable oil at 13.2 billion barrels, and recoverable natural gas at 83.2 trillion cubic feet.

Their estimate of Central Slope oil is 4 billion barrels, and 37.5 trillion cubic feet of gas.

The CIA puts annual US oil consumption at 21 million barrels a day, and gas at 604 cubic meters a year.

Some simple math:

Total optimistic estimate of Alaska north slope oil reserves (ANWR plus NPRA plus Central Slope): 43.2 billion barrels.

Total optimistic estimate of Alaska north slope gas reserves (NPRA plus Central Slope, couldn't find numbers for ANWR): 120.7 trillion cubic feet.

Annual US consumption of oil: 20.8 million barrels a day, or about 7.6 trillion barrels a year.

Total north slope oil reserves, at an optimistic estimate, is six years supply at our current rate of use.

Annual US consumption of natural gas: 604 cubic meters, or 21.3 trillion cubic feet.

Total north slope gas reserves, at an optimistic estimate, is likewise about six years supply at our current rate of use.

Simple, obvious questions to ask here are:

Are the optimistic numbers realistic.
Can all the oil and gas actually be brought to market.
How much will it cost us to bring the oil and gas to market, and how long will it take.
How much of this stuff will make its way to domestic markets, and how much will simply be absorbed by growing demand in China, India, and elsewhere.
At what rate will the oil and gas be able to be extracted, and for how many years will the reserves be viable.
How much will US energy demand grow during that period.

It took me all of ten minutes to put these numbers together using Google. All of the questions I've asked above are relevant and important. I haven't heard Palin utter a single word, ever, that addresses any of these questions.

If I can come up with simple, obvious questions in ten minutes that she hasn't addressed, at all, anywhere or anytime, as far as I'm concerned she brings nothing useful to the table. Period.

Leaving all environmental issues aside, "drill baby drill" is not a realistic solution to US domestic energy needs. I'm sure it would make both Palin's state and whatever oil companies were able to acquire licenses a lot of money, but that's not really good enough for me.

Oil's a dead end. I'm looking for people who are taking the long view. We need to be thinking about where we need to be, not five years from now, or ten, but twenty and more. We need to be thinking not about how to keep doing what we're doing now, but what the next thing is, and how we get there.

Palin's a talking head. She's not well informed, she does not offer an insightful analysis of the issues, she does not appear to be a particularly thoughtful person. She's a poised and articulate speaker, she's presentable, and she's appealing to people who think she's like them. She's on the ticket to get social conservatives to vote for McCain. Full stop.

It took me ten minutes to raise a handful of very obvious questions that she has never addressed. She's not the one to get it done. She doesn't have the goods.

Nothing personal toward her, it just is what it is.

Thanks -

Aren't all commodities fungible?

Did you notice that once Palin really got going on these bizarre remarks, a none-too-happy looking McCain came and stood next to her? When he did that, she finished her sentence and stopped.

Watch for this, I think it was a pre-arranged signal to be quiet.

What a joke. I've been at the bottom of my class and also the top. I've been kicked out of a high school but also received a PhD. It is obvious this woman has been cramming to understand complicated topics but has no real understanding of what she is talking about.

I'm going to push for a goddamn aptitude test for politicians nationwide. This is fraudulent and embarrassing. It is scary how stupid we are letting ourselves become.

K - hilzoy - any chance you can explain why we sell oil to Canada if they turn around and sell oil to us? Why do they buy oil if they have it, and vice versa?

QT

If the government can declare that we're going to just give billions and billions to some company that's failing, and the government can say what land is and is not off-limits to drilling, and the government can say a sovereign nation is in need of an occupation, and then go and do it and keep it up for six years, well...

Why can't the government just make it illegal to sell gas for more than $1.89 a gallon? And if the oil companies actually do go broke from it, we'll bail them out like Lehman Brothers. We'd still be propping up Bush cronies, but at least we'd get cheap gas out of it.

Heck, make it illegal to manufacture non-zero-emissions cars while you're at it, let's let Detroit get some corp welfare too. Go nuts. However you need to write the law, whatever pieces of green paper you need to print to make it happen so that we don't stay broke and flooded, you just go and do it, Senators.

QT - The northeastern states gets oil from Canada cheaper then from the Gulf or Alaska; western Canada gets oil from Alaska cheaper than from Canada.

liberal japonicus - You wrote, "It is not that Palin has or doesn't have a brain, it is whether she understands these issues and I am not going to assume she does until she proves it. The jury is still out..."
She's Republican, and she supports the Bush\McCain policies; I think the jury came in years ago.

Palins remarks look very similar to these from the "bubble-headed Miss So. Carolina. :Lauren Caitlin Upton:
Question:

"Recent polls have shown a fifth of Americans can't locate the U.S. on a world map. Why do you think this is?"

Lauren Caitlin Upton:

"I personally believe... that U.S. Americans are unable to do so... because...

"Uh... some people out there in our nation don't have maps...

"And... uh... I believe that our education, like such as in South Africa and... uh... the Iraq, everywhere, like, such as...

"And I believe that they should...

"Our education over here in the U.S. should help the U.S... uh...

"Or, should help South Africa and should help the Iraq and the Asian countries...

"So we will be able to build up our future... for our [children]."


DO these idiots think Palin is any better than Caitlin?

It's best not to underestimate Govenor Palin. She IS inarticulate, but mostly because she gets distracted. She seems to be saying oil is not chemically tracked to point of origin, like some mineral exports (which are therefore, in trade parlance, non-fungible). So she probably is speaking against bans. And is probably right in this. She's not stupid. Just unable to make herself understood.
So, this is the proposed stand in for Chief Executive? Risk a president who has difficulty making herself understood?
But don't pretend she is stupid... she's very sharp, and can deliver BS with a straight face, even a somewhat earnest one.

If polygraphs (aka lie detectors) were more reliable, I'd propose that candidates for high office* would be required to be linked to one each time they speak in public (giving interviews included of course).

*same for people in the media above a certain level (O'Falafel yes, the weather forecaster no**)
**except for the mandatory question about wanting to be a lumberjack.

Here is a translation for Palin's seemingly nonsensical statement, "Oil is a commodity that we trade by the bucket for money, I mean by the barrel. Anyway, we do not sell a molecule of oil for a penny, because molecules are too hard to count, just like counting pennies is hard, and so far there is no molecule machine that fills those little cardboard tubes up like those penny machines do, so since we cannot flag it by the molecule we have to flag it by the bucket and since buckets are easy to see it will be easy to see if Congress is walking through the halls selling those slopping buckets to outsiders before you have a chance to grab your bucket first, and that I will put a stop too right after John Palin, I mean McCain, ends greed, bombs Iran and drills right here, right now in Cedar Rapids!"

Palin reassures the nation that she's against the complete nationalization of Big Oil. Whew!

This is in contrast to Bush's financial bailout plans. . .

Palin reassures the nation that she's against the complete nationalization of Big Oil. Whew!

This is in contrast to Bush's financial bailout plans. . .

I am stunned and impressed that any of you can make this out at all. Although my favorite here is from Jay Alt when he writes Palin's reassurance that she is against complete nationalization of Big Oil. WOW Jay.

All I know is that this woman opened her mouth and suddenly the Large Hadron Collider is down until spring. Coincidence? ;-)

had to look up "fungible." Should I be embarrassed?

at least you looked it up.

Posted by: cleek | September 19, 2008 at 12:48 PM
---------------------------

try some Tinactin for that...

Funny Palin! I could compite with her about Energy ... and I,m from a country without Oil.
PS.: I loved your Cat-Photo! He looks like my new litle-cat.


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