Exits
by publius
My old nemesis the exit polls are (via Drudge) showing 52-48 Clinton. If that holds up, it would be big news. My hunch though is that it won't. I suppose someone has figured this up somewhere on the Internets, but it seems like the exit polls have consistently overestimated Obama's performance. Thus, it may well be the 7-8 point Clinton margin that everyone is expecting.
[UPDATE: From the comments, I see that Geraghty's sources actually have 52-47 Obama exit poll.]
[UPDATE 2: Wise words from Nick Beaudrot in the comments:
There's no point in believing any of this.
He's right, I honestly don't even know why I look for these anymore. (in maniacal, crazed raspy voice) Because maybe thisssss time...
Geraghty at National Review (who's pretty reliably gotten real exit poll info, says it's 52-47 Obama! Now when Clinton wins by 6, we'll all be disappointed.
Posted by: John | April 22, 2008 at 05:48 PM
Damn you publius, that's like saying Dick Vitale saying "Tyler Hansborough has made 14 free throws in a row" just before he shoots another one - guarantees he'll miss. Obviously it'll be Clinton by 21 points now, and it's ALL YOUR FAULT!
Nyeah.
Posted by: Ugh | April 22, 2008 at 05:58 PM
I refuse to get my hopes up.
I refuse to get my hopes up.
I refuse to get my hopes up.
Time to turn of the intertubes and make some dinner anyway.
Posted by: J.W. Hamner | April 22, 2008 at 06:05 PM
There's no point in believing any of this.
We'll have real results starting in two hours.
Oy.
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | April 22, 2008 at 06:08 PM
Yeah, but nearly every other primary (and certainly most of the hotly watched ones) had some form of early voting, mail-in ballots, etc. that I think interfered with exit polling (along with some general unreliability of exit polls to begin with). Pennsylvania doesn't, so I think that old patterns might now hold true.
Posted by: Mark Kawakami | April 22, 2008 at 06:14 PM
Perhaps while the pollsters are interviewing these exits, they can ask about that "strategy" of theirs which seems so elusive.
-- Btw, polls close at 8 eastern/7 central, for those like me who had to look it up.
Posted by: Anderson | April 22, 2008 at 06:17 PM
Good heavens, don't torture yourself with exit polls when the honest-to-God results will be available in a few hours.
Posted by: Sebastian | April 22, 2008 at 06:24 PM
Good heavens, don't torture yourself with exit polls when the honest-to-God results will be available in a few hours.
Well, results anyway. :-)
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov | April 22, 2008 at 06:35 PM
I'm not sure even a 52-48 Obama victory would be enough. I think it's just as plausible she continues with an increasingly bitter campaign of political guerrilla warfare until the convention as that she bows out. I don't think enough of the superdelegates will be swayed by this one contest to force her out.
Posted by: Xeynon | April 22, 2008 at 06:42 PM
We look for the exit polls because they're a transitional fix for political junkies. They allay suspense just long enough to make it through to the actual results.
Posted by: Adam | April 22, 2008 at 07:37 PM
TV rambling in the background. ….super delegates… super delegates… super delegates… [change channel] …super delegates… super delegates…
Exciting times to be a political junky no? Although it may be in the context of a certain curse….
(BTW – little help from the kitty in the Mr. Clean thread if anyone gets a chance. Damned spam-o-nator.)
Posted by: OCSteve | April 22, 2008 at 07:40 PM
Ever since 2004, I've enjoyed watching the exit polls; it's nice to know who actually won...
Posted by: Carleton Wu | April 22, 2008 at 07:59 PM
Clinton continues, regardless of the results tonight, or in May, or in June. she's going to take this all the way to the back room at the convention and try to finagle it out of the supers.
The Party is her vehicle, not her ideology.
Posted by: cleek | April 22, 2008 at 08:30 PM