Potomac Primary Open Thread

by publius

Obama big in Virginia -- very impressive. Too close to call on the GOP side. The big story of the night is shaping up to be Huckabee, but it's very early.

Thoughts?

UPDATE: I'm running out the door, but based on brief exit poll readings, tonight (and VA in particular) may be the beginning of the end of Clinton. Obama seems to be increasing his support from Latinos and women. All in all, some ominous clouds tonight for the Clinton campaign.

Comments

[wonkiewonkie]

As OSCteve noted, Obama gat the majority of women in Virginia.

[OCSteve]

Yeah but 67% of self-described conservatives? That can't be right.

[john miller]

However, that is all women. White women did break for Clinton though I don't have the percentages, CNN only breaks it down by gender. White men, however, did break for Obama.

Of course, they are all sexist, except those that voted for Clinton.

I really shouldn't have made that last comment, but I have a feeling we will be hearing that case made by some Clinton supporters.

[KCinDC]

According to CNN's exit polls, Obama won Latinos in Virginia 55-45.

[john miller]

Interesting that with 34% counted, Obama has more than all 4 Republican candidates combined.

[hilzoy]

CNN exit polls here.

According to these exit polls, Clinton won 50% of whites; Obama won 49%. Obama won 55% of white men to Clinton's 43%; Clinton won 55% of white women to Obama's 45%.

[Gary Farber]

"The big story of the night is shaping up to be Huckabee, but it's very early."

My understanding is that the returns are largely already in from the rural precincts which went strongly Huckabee, but not all in from more urban/populated precincts, which are going for McCain, so McCain is apt to narrowly pull it out ahead (further than he barely is now) for the narrow win in Virginia.

[Gary Farber]

There are interesting points in the CNN exit poll, such as that educational level made no difference whatever in the vote.

It's unsurprising, but interesting that "No, Never Before" voters went 29% Clinton, 71% to Obama.

Slightly more unexpected is that 16% of the voters who thought Clinton is "Most Qualified to be Commander in Chief" voted for Obama anyway.

[Ara]

Just read a bunch of articles about HRCs organization internals. I think it's hard to walk away without concluding that she's just not all that good at managing her organization at all. You've got a number of telltale features:

(1) A small group of insiders who control access to the candidate and the information the candidate hears.
(2) Loyalists promoted way higher than their level of competence.
(3) An inability to adapt fast enough to changing circumstances.
(4) Competition and factionalization within the insiders which the candidate doesn't effectively resolve.
(5) People trying to cover for themselves by not passing on bad news, even though that comes at a great cost to the campaign as a whole.

Meanwhile, as a friend pointed out to me, the best thing to be said about the Obama camp is that we haven't heard anything about them at all. Other than a few talking heads they send out, we have no idea who they are.

[Ugh]

Weather sucks here in DC tonight, same in MD, I assume, hilzoy/OCSteve, given that the polls are being kept open until 9:30.

[wonkiewonkie]

I noticed something interesting on 60 Minutes Sunday nighht. During the interview Clinton was asked what she wantd to do as President or something like that and she got all mistyeyed and said (This a close paraphrae)"I want to lead on globalwarminng and I want to lead on this and that and I want to give the young people a vision of the future!"

Annd I thought jeez she's channelling Obama. Someone on her staff has advised her to do the vision thing.

Well today kathleen Townsend was on NPR to give thhe Hillary statement about Virginia. When thhe reporter asked her why shhe was a Hillary supporters she said a bunch of stuff abouut how Hillary has planns etc, then she shifted gears and all of a sudden the talkingpoints were how Hillary can reach across the aisle andhow Hillary met with a group of Rrepublicanns and was so nice to them that thhey all decided to vote Democrat.

She is trying to claim Obama's talking points for herself. Except her version is a sort of clumsy dumbeddown version.

I wondere what taylor MArcsh will think of that? I wonder how that will go over with all those ladies from my cxaucus who want her to go out and stomp thhe Republicans inot the dirt?

This is about the third time the Clinton team has reset her talking points and restructured her narative. Hillary the shapeshifter.

I don't think Obama's schtick works for her.

[hilzoy]

ugh: Here in Baltimore, it's cold air and freezing drizzle. The sidewalks, not to mention my steps, are coated with an invisible glaze of ice. It's not "bad weather" in the sense of a snow storm, it's "bad weather" in the sense of weather that is downright evil, and might have been designed to cause as many car crashes, fractured skulls and hips, etc., as possible.

It sucks.

[Gary Farber]

I'm watching Clinton live at her Texas rally right now, and speaking of the lessons of Reagan, she's walking back and forth in front of a sea of teenage Latino young women, all in blue Hillary shirts, with lots of flags.

Oh, lord, it's all for the next generation.

Also, puppies.

[Gary Farber]

Also, solutions, to meet our challenges, and solve our problems.

I swear, someday I want to vote for a politician who promises stagnation and failure, to do nothing for the children, to help the elderly die and get out of the way, and to let the young people sink into a pitiful sinkhole of despair, depression, and apathy. And to oppose all solutions, in favor of partying like mad for now, because either someone better will eventually come along, or not, so why not?

Just to relieve the monotony of Standard American Political Boilerplate.

"Solutions." Yeah, that's a controversial position to be for.

Oh, goody, she just came out for ethanol, to be grown in Texas.

[Ugh]

The sidewalks, not to mention my steps, are coated with an invisible glaze of ice.

Yep, same here. I watched my neighbor get just enough traction to spin his wheels at ~45 mph all the way up his driveway while thinking "I hope he doesn't hit a dry patch cause if so, I'm going to pry him out of his garage."

Back OT - Looks like MD has been called for Obama.

[Sara]

My northern Virginia voting story:

I left the office in Alexandria today at 5:04. My car was covered in ice. After a thorough defrosting, I pulled out of the parking lot at 5:11 only to find that the beltway entrance was closed off--for BOTH directions. I tried Duke St. and sat in intersections through 13 changes of green without moving. I manuevered to King St. and made slight progress but then came to a similar standstill. I made a U to try a lesser known road, but quickly hit a patch of traffic (heading in the opposite direction of the traffic I'd just been in) where I sat in one place without moving for 18 minutes. Eventually cars started turning around to head in the other direction, which allowed me to move forward enough to make my turn. Accidents were everywhere, cops were everywhere, left turns were impossible because oncoming traffic clogged every intersection, long-angry-honks were blaring from all directions... I called my boyfriend and asked him to check Google traffic, and he said gravely, "The entire DC area is red."

With the help of a few shortcuts, I made it to my polling place in Annandale at 7:01. When I walked in the door and began to ask the officials standing inside if the polls were still open, they interrupted my first word and yelled "RUN!" while pointing down the hall. Laughing, I dashed into the polling room, where election officials sympathetically but firmly told me the polls were closed and the hours couldn't be extended without a court order, which they had already requested and had already been denied. I came home to find out that the MD elections chief extended MD polling hours to 9:30 due to the weather and subsequent traffic. Friggin' Virginia.

Anyway, just thought I'd pass along my story to highlight the importance of voting BEFORE work, and to mention that if you know someone who was travelling in the DC area during evening rush hour today, call them to make sure they're OK.

[The Modesto Kid]

"bad weather" in the sense of weather that is downright evil

Check out what they got in Switzerland.

ObPrimaries: Yay Obama!

[Huh]

My story from Northern VA - I voted early this AM and the turn out for my little polling station was huge. Similar to what you'd get in the general. Obama stuff was around, HRC no where in sight.

I'm decided on Obama but work in a heavily GOP office. OCSteve - I'm not surprised at the 67% at all. Anecdotal it may be - but all the GOPers I know aren't voting HRC because she'd be easier to beat. They are voting Obama because if McCain loses and the country goes Dem, they think Obama is someone they can live with -- so it's anybody but HRC. She's got huge negatives here....

[OCSteve]

same in MD, I assume, hilzoy/OCSteve

Yeah it was fine until lunchtime when I went. Started raining after that. Very cold and wet, freezing rain, etc.

[flyerhawk]

Obama is speaking like a front runner now. Nary a comment about Hillary. Full guns on the Bush Administration. Calm, relaxed, personable.

For the first time I really feel like Obama has won this thing.

[Ara]

Uh, DC Dems outvoted DC Republicans 25 to 1.

Uh. I know DC is Dem and all, but 25 to 1.

[Gary Farber]

This isn't about the primary, but it does say "open thread," so, this seems like an example of overly-mechanical law.

[john miller]

BTW OCSteve, I see Gilchrist is winning with one precinct reporting.

[Gary Farber]

Tidbits from Virginia:

# Sixty-one percent of voters said McCain was most qualified to be commander in chief, but 30 percent of that bloc still voted for Mike Huckabee anyway.

I guess that "in a time of war," the War On Some Terrorists isn't everything, after all.

Earlier in the piece:

[...] Half of the state’s voters were born-again Christians or evangelicals, and they favored Huckabee over McCain by 40 points.

But for general conservatives, surely in a time of war...

[...] Sixty-six percent of voters consider themselves conservatives (rather than moderates). Conservatives favored Huckabee over McCain by 23 points.

The State of Robert E. Lee and Virginia Military Institute has made the priorities of its conservatives clear.

It kinda undercuts any future argument that Republicans mustn't vote for Obama, because, you know, it's a time of war, and that's what's most important, doesn't it?

[john miller]

Clinton's deputy campaign manager resigned today, saying the new campaign manager should have the right to build her own team. Since this is the guy who managed her field campaigns one wonders.

With three weeks before the "have to win" primaries, it is going to be difficult to get a new staff on board and clicking as a team.

[Gary Farber]

"Clinton's deputy campaign manager resigned today...."

Letter here.

[Gary Farber]

Katherine Seelye has an interesting look at what happened in Maine.

[The Modesto Kid]

Is Obama's speech from tonight on the web anywhere? I looked at cnn.com and msnbc.com but the most I could find was a 1-minute clip of the beginning of the speech.

[Matthew]

Obama's (and Clinton's) speech at TPM: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/178286.php

[The Modesto Kid]

There it is! At talkingpointsmemo.

[The Modesto Kid]

(Cross-posted ith Matthew)

[kvenlander]

That's just clips of Obama's speech - I read that he went on the attack against McCain tonight, but the video posted doesn't have that.

But whatever, because the videos tell the story anyway: just compare Obama's speech with McCain and the Undead Posse. Oh. My.

[Michael]

UPDATE: I'm running out the door, but based on brief exit poll readings, tonight (and VA in particular) may be the beginning of the end of Clinton. Obama seems to be increasing his support from Latinos and women. All in all, some ominous clouds tonight for the Clinton campaign.

I actually think this is just a continuation of that trend, which I think already existed. We didn't have exits for Maine or Washington, so there's no way to know for sure, but SUSA, which nailed the caucus % pretty well, had Obama eating into her base w/ women, winning or tying with Hispanics and Asians, winning in the 35-50 category really comfortably and competitive in the 50-64 (I think stat tied)...outside of Seattle, Washington has a lot of working class whites, so you can't get those margins or win all 67 counties there w/o doing well with those demographics. We just didn't have the exits to "prove it". Maine, same story.

Is that a sign of momentum, or a sign that Obama has find a pitch for those demographics that's effective?

[Gary Farber]

McCain's campaign is going to be like running Bob Dole on a theme of "Hope? Pshaw! I got wars! But don't worry, I don't know much about the economy."

Meanwhile, Juan McCain is not a conservative. Just ask quite a few conservatives.

Good luck with that.

[publius]

back - wow, what a night.

and sara's making me "home"sick -- i used to live on oronoco and pitt in alexandria. fortunately, i lived there long enough to vote against george allen

[KCinDC]

In MD-04, Donna Edwards has 59% to Al Wynn's 37% with 51% reporting. I thought that with the high turnout (meaning lots of voters who didn't know about her) she had no chance against the incumbent. Glad to be wrong.

In MD-01, relatively good Republican Wayne Gilchrest is trailing the more conservative Andy Harris 35% to 41%.

In the MD-06 Democratic primary to see who challenges Roscoe Bartlett, netroots-supported 2006 challenger Andrew Duck is losing to Jennifer Dougherty, whom I know nothing about, 37% to 44%. Duck impressed me by using opposition to the Military Commissions Act as part of his campaign.

[KCinDC]

The Baltimore Sun has called the MD-04 Democratic primary for Donna Edwards and the MD-01 Republican primary for Andy Harris. Both challengers have won. Slimy corporate Democrat Al Wynn and not-as-horrible-as-most-Republicans Republican Wayne Gilchrest will be out of Congress at the end of the year. I only hope the Democrats can somehow beat Harris.

[hilzoy]

KCinDC: yeah, I just saw that about Harris and Gilchrest. That's bad.

Great about Edwards, though. We really need to dislodge lousy representatives, and this was an awesome start.

[hilzoy]

I do note that turnout in MD-01 was about equal in the D and R primaries. Hopefully, that might help in November.

[hilzoy]

COmpletely OT: every couple of weeks I check TTLB's blog ecosystem, and recently I have been amused to find that we are generally just a little bit behind Mary Kate and Ashley Olsen News. Darn, I think to myself: why can't we pull just a bit ahead of the Olsen Twins?

Guess what? I think we just did! Yay!

(It won't last, though: it's due to a Sullivan Traffic Spike.)

[Adam]

Annd I thought jeez she's channelling Obama.

Um, who in this campaign -- R or D -- hasn't been trying to do that since Iowa?

[KCinDC]

I wrote this comment around 10 this morning and then neglected to fill out the captcha, so I just discovered in a tab:

I'm off to volunteer at my polling place. My wildly optimistic hopes are that Obama reaches 70% in my half of the city and 85% in the other half, which would mean he gets 9 of the 10 district-level convention delegates. More realistically, I expect he'll get a majority here and 70% there, which would yield 7 of 10. Because of the way the at-large delegates are allocated, it seems virtually certain he'll get only 3 of 5.

If my calculations are correct, Obama's numbers are 70.068% for my half of the city and 81.840% for the other half, so my wildly optimistic hopes weren't as wild as I thought. It appears he'll get 8 of 10 district-level delegates and a total of 11 of the 15 pledged delegates for DC.

[Adam]

Obama wasn't even hitting on on cylinders in that speech (botched his hope-monger joke, e.g.) and he was still awesome. He's really unreal. He's also pivoted to the perfect position on the "blind optimism" criticism -- even in the way he inflects the "I know how hard it is" phrase. That's a new addition to the stump speech and he used it well.

I'm more amazed than anything at how sharp Obama is. Last night Clinton started pushing the "He talks nice, but he makes it sound too easy" version of the "false hope" criticism -- which was new -- and he's already stomped it and moved on. They're just not quick enough to keep up with him.

As a final bit of fanboyism -- you have to appreciate the sense of humor, too. The "I'm a Republican" bit actually made me chuckle a little, and it's not even a great joke, it was just well-delivered. The image he projects wouldn't be nearly as effective as it is if he didn't always seem like he was enjoying himself. He seems eager, and it shows in his campaign.

Speaking of which, the speech on the top at Obama's website right now involves McCain, and does have a pretty cute/funny bit at the beginning that's worth watching, too.

[Bill]

“There was excitement, there was hope, and there were specifics. Talk of new ways to use our old industrial centers, dead and forgotten by the establishment.”
-From an Obama speech linked in the previous thread

My theory is that the money people took control of this country in the 1960s, and that our politicians serve them. The Clintons just cleared $130 million on an ex-Soviet state uranium deal and $20 million cashing out a UAE trust fund to clean up her name before the elections.

Throughout American history, customs duties for imported goods averaged around 35% (click on ‘Bill’ below for the Commerce Department graph). Customs duties for imported goods in 2008 are less than 5%. This increases profit margins for importers and continues to drive good jobs overseas. Kicking a few hundred million to politicians is nothing in a $12 trillion dollar economy.

I’ll believe that Obama is not a card-carrying member of “the establishment” if he makes a policy position to return customs duties to historical averages. That would create “new ways to use our old industrial centers”.

Why don’t we have a national debate on increasing customs duties?

[Adam]

Clinton: "Well, I can't think of any better place to start our campaign for in Texas than right here in El Paso!"

Um, what? If you started driving from El Paso right now, you might make it here before March 4th, if you're lucky and you don't fall asleep on one of those stretches of highway that doesn't make the slightest turn for 30 miles (and yes, I've verified that personally).

Fun fact: El Paso is closer to San Diego, CA than it is to Beaumont, TX.

The only thing worse than watching Texas politicians pander to Texans is watching non-Texas politicians pander to Texans. Ugh. Still, coulda been worse. I don't know if it's the fact that he's in front of 50 people instead of 15,000, but wow -- did John McCain used to be a decent speaker?

[Adam]

Why don’t we have a national debate on increasing customs duties?

For the same reason we're not having a national debate on your Muslim-deportation policy or the unconscionable rutabaga crop shortage sweeping our across our breadbasket.

It's a travesty, I know. Surely the Reign of the Legumes is nearly upon us.

[Bill]

OK Adam;

You get back to me with one of them open-cycle cooled nuke plants. Maybe you can sell them to the Dubians. Perhaps for desalinization.

[Gary Farber]

"(botched his hope-monger joke, e.g.)"

I thought he was just changing it up, since the last version has gone around so much, but I'm only guessing, of course.

[Adam]

You get back to me with one of them open-cycle cooled nuke plants. Maybe you can sell them to the Dubians. Perhaps for desalinization.

I don't know where "Dubia" is -- do they understand advanced nuclear physics concepts like friction?

[liberal japonicus]

he's already stomped it and moved on. They're just not quick enough to keep up with him.

Hmmm, sounds like HRC is on the outside of an OODA loop.

From Wikipedia's entry on John Boyd.

In addition, he stated that most effective organizations have a highly decentralized chain of command that utilizes objective-driven orders, or directive control, rather than method-driven orders in order to harness the mental capacity and creative abilities of individual commanders at each level. He argued that such a structure would create a flexible "organic whole" that would be quicker to adapt to rapidly changing situations. He noted, however, that any such highly decentralized organization would necessitate a high degree of mutual trust and a common outlook that came from prior shared experiences. Headquarters needs to know that the troops are perfectly capable of forming a good plan for taking a specific objective, and the troops need to know that Headquarters does not direct them to achieve certain objectives without good reason.

juxtapose that with this TNR piece from a different Marc Ambinder Atlantic piece than the one hilzoy linked to earlier (I think, I've got a lot of tabs open here), and you can see the extent of the problem.