Blowout Yesterday, Who Knows What Today?

by hilzoy

I expected Obama to win yesterday's primaries and caucusses, but not necessarily by such huge margins: 57%-36% in Louisiana, 68%-32% in Nebraska, 68%-31% in Washington, and 89.9.%-7.6% in the Virgin Islands. Obama seems to have beaten not just my projections, but his own campaign's: his campaign had projected a ten point victory in Louisiana and twenty point victories everywhere else, which was low by ten points in all three states, and way, way low in the Virgin Islands.

No one seems to know what will happen today in Maine. The Obama projections show Hillary Clinton winning narrowly. For what little it's worth, here's Pollster.com's Maine page: the last poll, taken in October, has Clinton up by 46% to 10%, with 5% for Edwards and 35% undecided. Maine seems to be one of the states in this phase of the contest that people think Clinton has a decent shot at taking, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

This is your thread for primary discussions, and whatever else you want to talk about. But you didn't need me to tell you that... :)

Comments

[morinao]

As people have said, the mainland and Hawaii Asian-American communities are totally different (e.g., California is dominated by first- and second-generation voters, while Hawaii has more third- and fourth-generation, proportionally) and the "local boy" factor trumps everything.

Also worth noting that Inouye and the legendary state Democratic machine have been losing their grip recently. It's no accident that the current governor of Hawaii is a Republican. Even within the party, the entrenched establishment is increasingly viewed as geriatric and exhausted. Ed Case came much closer than many people expected to knocking off a sitting Democratic senator in a primary two years ago, a direct challenge to Inouye and the old guard.

(How direct? Case actually ran on the platform that Akaka was old and might die before finishing his term. Akaka is the same age as Inouye.)

[Adam]

Let's not get cocky.

Oh, I'm not taking my eyes off the prize. Winning takes hard work, no doubt -- though as long as we keep that in mind, enthusiasm and optimism are important, too. I want this one to be decisive. The goal isn't just winning, it's kicking the Republicans back into the Stone Age so they can enjoy their natural habitat.

[gwangung]

Yeah, let's not get cocky...

But the eventual Democratic nominee will HAVE to tap this enthusiasm. No ifs, ands or buts. If it's Obama, that's easy. If it's Clinton, she has to be careful in how she does it--but she has to have that energy to combat the mobilizing forces from McCain (and you don't want to assume that he can't tap some energy of his own).

[gwangung]

As people have said, the mainland and Hawaii Asian-American communities are totally different (e.g., California is dominated by first- and second-generation voters, while Hawaii has more third- and fourth-generation, proportionally

Yeah, all the Longtime Californ' folks have gotten outnumbered and outbred by the recent immigrants from the 1960s and onward.

[Gary Farber]

"Second, as I recall Obama actually won the Asian vote in WA."

You shouldn't have had to recall too hard, since it was in what you quoted me as saying in what you were responding to: "...it's certainly a worthwhile datapoint to see that they had it Obama 51% of Asian caucusers, Clinton 43%, and undecided 5%...."

:-)

And I have to keep reminding people that nine months is an eternity politically.

Also, that the important thing about Obama-ism longterm can't be Barack Obama, however hypothetically great, or not, he turns out to be; it has to be the movement he genuinely builds, or whatever good might be accomplished while he's in office is simply personality-based, and largely goes away in division and fragmentation after he leaves office.

Winning caucuses and primaries is great and fine, but they're just means.

Which isn't to say that I amn't highly pleased and happy with how things are going, and that we shouldn't enjoy that. It's a bit novel by this point, after all, isn't it? Even after 2006.

[Adam]

What gwangung said. (But my Stone Age line was funnier.)

I don't think that complacency has to be a necessary symptom of confidence. It's about creating your own opportunities. Like Jefferson said, "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."

I'm sure it wasn't intended, but the talk about "cockiness" and "optimism" really sort of irks me. I'm sick to death of playing defense. The one thing I love most about Obama is that he knows how to play political offense, and he's really good at it. We've spent two or three decades now on rearguard actions and it sucks.

Other good luck quotes, because hey, why not?:

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. —Seneca

Luck is tenacity of purpose. —Elbert Hubbard

The invariable mark of wisdom is to see the miraculous in the common. —Emerson

Hope is the companion of power and the mother of success, For those of us who hope strongest have within us the gift of miracles. —Sidney Bremer

[Adam]

Heh. In that same vein:

"Obama's talking about hope again," the candidate says, mimicking his foes. Then his tenor drops to a low, conspiratorial pitch: "He's a hope monger."

He's certainly going to produce some good quotes for the archives some years down the line, I'll give him that.

[Adam]

You shouldn't have had to recall too hard

[headsmack]

I thought that number was Hawaii, not Washington. My bad.

[Adam]

... Obama-ism longterm can't be Barack Obama, however hypothetically great, or not, he turns out to be; it has to be the movement he genuinely builds...

One word: Reagan.

And before you say "Reagan built a movement" -- I don't think he really did any such thing. What he did do was redefine the terms of the debate and provide something for "Reaganism" to coalesce around.

Reagan wasn't a political genius or anything -- he was just being Reagan. Obama's already done a bit of this just in the primaries -- he's created a formula for the Democratic primaries and probably the general election that will have lasting effects in future elections, regardless of whether he wins the nomination.

[liberal japonicus]

And a totally unscientific survey--table of mostly older local (Okinawan) people at a wedding last night

Uchinanchu! Do tell!

[Not Prince Hamlet]

Nothing too exciting to tell--just a bunch of my wife's relatives and her cousin's new wife's relatives. The bride's uncle was pretty excited about Obama, but he's another '79 grad, so I got to hassle him and my wife both about what they could have accomplished in life if only they'd gotten to go to Punahou.