by publius
Having been on hiatus, I’ve spent some time lately wondering why I’m so viscerally blah about Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. Apparently I’m not the only one – she scored an anemic 4% in the latest MyDD straw poll. I’ve tried hard to come up with a Slate-like contrarian post about why my Clinton Blahs have nothing to do with Iraq. But I can’t – it’s Iraq. It’s not merely though that she supported the war, it’s that the specific way she supported it speaks volumes (bad volumes) about what a future Clinton administration would look like.
First things first – I could care less about whether Clinton “apologizes” for supporting the war. I actually hope she doesn’t at this point. But I won’t be supporting her in the primary regardless of what she does.
I also don’t really care about her 2002 vote. A lot of smart people supported the war in good conscience. No, what bothers me is not her initial support, but her ongoing support in the face of obvious and ongoing failures. What bothers me is her prolonged post-war silence. As Yglesias has documented, she consciously played up an image as a war supporter and a hawk for years. In doing so, she essentially abandoned progressives on the foreign policy and national security fronts until very recently. “Abandon,” I think, is the most appropriate word to use. After all, the netroots’ skepticism of Clinton is rooted in the feeling that she left everyone out to dry when they could have really benefited from her speaking out. Kos expresses well what I think a lot of these people are feeling:
These Democrats didn't just enable Bush's war, they sat by and let the Right Wing smear machine attack those of us who waged our lonely battles to prevent this disaster from happening. And while most of the candidates in the field have come around, Hillary remains the notable exception.
My only quibble is that, with respect to Clinton, the post-war bothers me more than the pre-war. She could and should have spoken out earlier against what she clearly recognized were disastrous policies. But she didn’t. She stayed silent and let others do that, while she floated above the fray with an eye to keeping her centrist hawkish street cred intact for 2008. While others risked political capital to criticize, she waited until criticism no longer carried political risks.
Personal bitterness aside, there’s actually a more substantive concern. After all, I think it’s important to de-personalize presidential elections. Personality matters only to the extent it materially affects the shape of the candidate’s future administration and executive branch. People may feel personally betrayed by Clinton, but that doesn’t mean she wouldn’t assemble an outstanding and effective executive branch.
But I don’t think she will. And this is where Iraq comes in. I would bet a million dollars to one that Clinton never really supported the war. But even if she did, I’m even more confident that she quickly recognized the gross incompetence of its execution. But despite all that, she basically stayed silent for years and kept on portraying herself as a hawk.
And here’s the heart of it – the Iraq issue matters because it shows, at heart, what most motivates Clinton is the fear of being perceived as too liberal. I don’t know if these fears are rooted in coming of political age in Arkansas during the Reagan years, or with the scars of 1994, or what. But what bothers me about Clinton’s Iraq policy is that it suggests that her administration will be scared and small. It will be an administration of half-measures and clichés, so scared of its liberal shadow that it won’t go to the mat for progressive policies. For example, in light of 1994, I suspect Clinton is the least likely of all the Democratic candidates to put up a real fight for serious health care reform if elected. I can also easily see her getting bullied into military action. And so on.
The Geffen episode reinforces these fears. Clinton wants to ride an aura of inevitability to victory. Her team wants people to think they’re an efficient, Republican-eating machine. But they’re not. They’re fraidy cats. If the Geffen episode shows us nothing else, it’s that the Clinton team is paranoid, scared, and not very comfortable in their own skin. That’s not exactly a recipe for ushering in the great progressive political realignment.
That said, I’m sure that Clinton – like Bill – will hold the line on the budget and appoint good people to agencies and to the courts. But as far as sticking her neck out and risking capital on something that could be a game-changer such as universal health care or global warming legislation, I don’t see her even attempting it. In other words, there will be no attempt to move the goal posts. She will operate within the terms of the existing debate, and she'll do just fine within that narrow scope. And who knows -- maybe that's a good thing. Maybe we need a break from big ideas. But personally, I'd like a bit more "potential energy."
On a final note, there is some value in keeping the people who voted for the war out of the White House. Let’s be honest -- very few of the Democrats who voted for war (including Kerry) actually believed in it. They made a political gamble and, frankly, it was probably a rational one. But it was a gamble, and they lost. And there’s a certain amount of Justice in denying the White House to those who disingenuously support war for political reasons. (That’s another reason why I admire Gore – his votes never struck me as insincere, even his Gulf War vote).
All the best tragedies turn on a simple thing – a choice. A choice is made and space and time and consequence bend around that choice, changing the world of the chooser. If Clinton loses the White House because of her choice, it might be tragedy for her. But it seems like a pretty just result to me.
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