by hilzoy
From Newsweek:
"The Bush administration insists Iraq is a long way from civil war, but the contingency planning has already begun inside the White House and the Pentagon. President Bush will move U.S. troops out of Iraq if the country descends into civil war, according to one senior Bush aide who declined to be named while talking about internal strategy. "If there's a full-blown civil war, the president isn't going to allow our forces to be caught in the crossfire," the aide said. "But institutionally, the government of Iraq isn't breaking down. It's still a unity government." (...) But the senior Bush aide said the White House would need no prompting from Congress to get troops out "if the Iraqi government broke down completely along sectarian lines."In fact, the U.S. military in Iraq has completed several elements of contingency planning in case of civil war, based on lessons learned from Bosnia and Kosovo. The military's approach revolves around three principles. The first is to stop massacres by physically separating communities, moving minorities out of harm's way if necessary. The second is to stop the flow of paramilitary gangs across the country. And the third is to halt any incitement to violence on Iraqi TV and radio. Baghdad would pose the biggest problem, [note from hilzoy: Hahahahahahaha! Newsweek: master of understatement. Who knew?] requiring a strict curfew and a ban on road traffic. The security measures would include widespread checkpoints and a ban on carrying firearms or explosives.
The administration hasn't made its definition of full-blown civil war explicit. But in March, when Iraq's former prime minister Ayad Allawi said the country was already fighting a civil war, Bush disagreed, noting the existence of Iraq's nonsectarian Army and government. If the country did someday meet the definition of civil war and the U.S. pulled out, military officials warn, the consequences would be disastrous. "All the neighboring powers would be drawn in," said one senior military official who has examined the scenarios and is not authorized to speak on the record. "It would become a regional war.""
I think I am one of the few liberal bloggers who has not yet called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. This is because I think that all our options are horrible. Since it's pretty obvious that my views will have no impact whatsoever on our policy, I don't feel compelled to decide which option is least horrible. I still accept the basic outline of our interests and the situation that I outlined a year ago in this post: namely, that without our troops' presence things would probably be even worse, but that if they remain, their numbers should be drastically scaled back, and their mission limited. And don't say that things could not get any worse: they could. A lot worse. There could, after all, actually be a regional war.
If there were, it would be a complete catastrophe for the people of the region, and also for our interests. We would confront it with limits on our options that I find breathtaking. -- One way to see just how destructive to our interests this administration's policies have been is to consider the ways in which it has sacrificed our freedom of action as a nation. Our army is fully occupied in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is badly stretched. Moreover, they are pinned down right next to Iran, which could cause them a lot more trouble than it has to date. We have wasted six years during which we might have reduced our dependence on oil imports, and as a result any disruption of the world's oil supplies would hit us harder than it needs to. We have made ourselves reliant on Asian, and especially Chinese, funding for our trade and government deficits. We have allowed North Korea to become a nuclear power, and Iran to take steps in that direction, even though Iran offered to negotiate, with all issues on the table, back in 2003. (And isn't Cheney's statement that "we don't negotiate with evil; we defeat it" looking clever now.) We can see the results of our Iran policy in the current crisis in Lebanon: the more pressure we put on them to rein in Hezbollah, the less we have to use to persuade them not to go nuclear. We have alienated our allies, and created anti-Americanism throughout the Middle East. We have, as a result, much less room to maneuver than we would have had otherwise. And that is very bad news.
Personally, I will never forgive this administration for doing something so important with such breathtaking negligence. And I will have a hard time forgiving those Democrats who voted for the war. It was not that hard to look at Afghanistan and see just how seriously this administration took the task of reconstructing a country. And it was not that hard to consider the history of the Middle East and realize that the costs of screwing up Iraq would be absolutely enormous. Costs to the Iraqis, to our troops, to the world, and to our interests, all incurred because, in a moment of national hysteria, we decided to trust someone who had never once given the slightest evidence that he was trustworthy; and to do so when the stakes were huge.

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