Peace Process News

This story (Officials: Abbas Fires Top Gaza Security Commanders, After Mortar Attack Threatens Cease-Fire) represents one of the most hopeful things I have seen come out of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in quite some time.

Palestinian Cabinet Secretary Hassan Abu Libdeh said Abbas took "punitive measures against officers who did not undertake their responsibilities, which led to the latest developments in Gaza," dismissing several commanders and accepting the resignations of others.

An official speaking on condition of anonymity said Abbas dismissed Brig. Gen. Abdel Razek Majaidie, chief of public security, police chief Saeb al-Ajed and three other senior commanders. Also, several lower-ranking officers lost their jobs, the official said.

Abbas is to go to Gaza on Friday to make it clear to the militants that he will not tolerate violations of the cease-fire, Abu Libdeh said.

One of the key problems in the conflict has always been that Arafat refused to crack down on groups which attacked Israel (chiefly because he was more interested in supporting them).  The fact that Abbas may be willing to crack down on them causes me to be cautiously hopeful--though it is too soon to be cautiously optimistic. 

Comments

[Jesurgislac]

One of the key problems in the conflict has always been that Arafat refused to crack down on groups which attacked Israel

But only one key problem.

The other key problems have been:

1. Israel refuses to withdraw the illegal settlements
2. Israel's human rights violations in the Occupied Territories, including:
3. (or 2a): the routine assassination without regard for civilian lives, of important figures on the Palestinian side of the conflict, intended (as far as one can see) to provoke the Palestinians into breaking a cease-fire.

Now, it's true there is hope for the future. But it's typical that you take an entirely one-sided view of it. If Ariel Sharon is determined to continue the conflict with the Palestinians, it will continue:

The declaration of a mutual ceasefire is a signal achievement for the new Palestinian leadership in general, and Abbas in particular. He has clearly come a long way in a very short time. However, if he is to make further progress with Sharon he will need cooperation from the factions and the active support of the United States. It is doubtful whether he can have the one without precluding the other. cite

It's a question whether the Bush administration is still deluded enough to think that Sharon is "a man of peace" or whether they know, now, that in order to make peace, Sharon will have to be forced to it: that Israel must give up the illegal settlements; give up the assassinations that sometimes miss their target but always kill civilians; and stop the human rights violations against Palestinians.

[dmbeaster]

It is hopeful, although the firings could also just be changing the guard for the new boss, with the bombing as cover for the sackings. Still, it sends a message about what is expected -- no more covert complicity with terror.

I second Jesugislac -- the Israelis record of bad behavior is constantly getting overlooked, in part because they pretend that they are forced to act that way just because of those bad Palestinians. Funny how they seem to ignore that stealing land tends to cause violence. Latest example (note -- could not link the original Haaretz article) -- Sharon seizes as "abandoned" Palestinian lands isolated by the new security wall.

[rilkefan]

"But it's typical that you take an entirely one-sided view of it."

Posting rules, I think.

"without regard for civilian lives"

I think "without maraschino cherries on top" would be more accurate.

[Sebastian Holsclaw]

I don't mind taking talking about the settlements, they just aren't morally equivalent to blowing up crowded restaurants. The fact of the matter is that Israel has at many times in the past 30 years been very willing to come to a deal. Sharon hasn't been in power for 30 years, there were some very liberal governments available to Arafat. But he never wanted to rein in the actual terrorist side of his movements.

Abbas seems like he might want to (although once again 'seems' might be the operative word. But assuming that he is serious, whether or not he can is a question yet to be resolved. But if he does, it can't be anything other than good for the chances of long term peace in the Middle East.

[Bernard Yomtov]

FWIW: An Israeli friend who has been harshly critical of Sharon in the past, and has worked to promote peace agreements, now believes that Sharon definitely wants to arrive at an agreement with Abbas, and will stand up to the settlers to do so.

Only one opinion, I realize, but a significantly changed one.

[rilkefan]

Good article on Abu Mazen.

[Jesurgislac]

Sebastian: I don't mind taking talking about the settlements, they just aren't morally equivalent to blowing up crowded restaurants.

Oh, sure.

This picture is a difficult and infuriating one when it comes to less serious crimes than murder and manslaughter, too. In most cases of violence or damage to property, no investigation is ever initiated. The message is clear: It isn't terrible to kill Arabs, hurting them or their property is almost normal. Revenge is understood and sometimes also permitted, as long as it's Jewish.

This situation has reached a new low in recent weeks. In a time of increasing Palestinian terror, n day passes without pogroms by settlers, and the police, the Israel Defense Forces and the other security forces stand there, sometimes closing their eyes and sometimes winking. Amir Ahmed, 13, was badly wounded when he was shot by settlers. Abdallah Ka'ik, an Israeli Arab who was mistakenly thought to be from the territories, was badly beaten. Settlers rampaged in Kifal Harith, near the West Bank city of Ariel, and injured 15 people. In Sinjil, north of Ramallah, settlers fired shots, burned and destroyed property. Near the Gaza Strip settlement of Kfar Yam, settlers destroyed property and rioted. In Hebron, settlers smashed shops and injured police officers and soldiers. In Silat Al Dahar, settlers shot at passengers in a car. Mustafa Alian of the Askar refugee camp was stoned to death. Two olive harvesters were badly injured near the settlement of Yitzhar. Tahrir Rizq was shot in the head and killed near Hizmeh. read the rest

I agree that stealing land is less of a crime than killing people. But given that the people who settle on the land are given to unpunished violence and destruction against the dispossessed, it seems that you are not weighing like with like. Settler violence against Palestinians is the long-term problem of the Occupied Territories: no Israeli government, no matter how liberal, has ever seriously tried to penalize Israeli violence against Palestinians.

[Jesurgislac]

Bernard: now believes that Sharon definitely wants to arrive at an agreement with Abbas, and will stand up to the settlers to do so.

I certainly hope your friend is right.

[bob mcmanus]

I remain skeptical and pessimistic.

I wonder if I could create a bot to add that comment to all Middle East threads.

[Anarch]

The fact that Abbas may be willing to crack down on them causes me to be cautiously hopeful--though it is too soon to be cautiously optimistic.

Not to be callow, but does anyone know how this affects the over/under on Abbas surviving the year?

[Melissa]

I wonder if Sharon is worried...remember Rabin? People never talk about the threat to Sharon much, but then Jewish extremists don't get much press either. He's been called a traitor for promising to clear out the Gaza settlements, though I saw a news story where settlers are still building their houses in Gaza, they think it's all talk, it will never happen.

[Sebastian Holsclaw]

"Not to be callow, but does anyone know how this affects the over/under on Abbas surviving the year?"

That is the interesting problem. It almost certainly decreases Abbas chances of surviving in power (or at all?) a year from now. But it also represents an absolutely necessary step. You couldn't pay me to be the Palestinian leader right now.

[Anarch]

You couldn't pay me to be the Palestinian leader right now.

In my darker moments, I think the PA oath of office should be "morituri te salutamus". It's more honest that way.

[Sebastian Holsclaw]

Well, it did take Arafat a while to die. Though I imagine he would salute us with the middle finger if he could.

[Jesurgislac]

If things get visibly better for Palestinians - if, for example, Sharon were to clear the illegal settlements from Gaza, stop the destruction of Palestinian homes, and stop stealing Palestinian land via his "barrier" - three moves that he could theoretically make this year - while it would increase the threat to Sharon (I don't suppose he's forgotten what happened to Rabin), it would decrease the threat to Abbas.

There are extremists on either side who don't want a peaceful solution to the conflict, except by the complete destruction of the other. The problem is that Sharon is one of those extremists - or was, if Bernard's friend is right. It won't do any good for Abbas, or for a peaceful solution, if Abbas is perceived as having made a move - and Sharon's response is more violence.