Time -- and other essential things.

Once again:

The U.S.-led coalition plans to execute a months-old arrest warrant for Moqtada al-Sadr, an influential Shiite cleric who in recent weeks has incited violence against the United States and called the September 11, 2001, attacks a gift from God[.]

We have no choice but to arrest al-Sadr. That's the easy part. Here's the hard part: We have no choice to arrest al-Sadr within the week, lest his revolt turn into a revolution. The "Saddam" timetable will not work. We have no choice but the make the arrest with a minimum of bloodshed, lest we turn al-Sadr into a matyr. And we have no choice but to do it without the aid of Sistani, lest we intend Iraq to be a neo-theocracy.

In other news:

Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) suggests that "it's probably time to have [a] debate" over whether we will be able to turn over power to Iraqis on June 30. The White House demurs.

Joe Biden (D-Del) notes that we have no idea whom we'll be empowering on June 30. The White House demurs.

And, finally, Former Speaker Newt Gingrinch argues on Fox News Sunday that we should reduce U.S. troop strength and let the Iraqis take over security. Helpful suggestion, that. Let's see if Biden can respond:

[Joe Biden:] Who is going to be the one, [Speaker Gingrinch,] when Chalabi cuts his deal with Sistani that eviscerates part of the constitution we think is necessary for a republican form of government in Iraq to take place, who is going to be the one to march in and tell them, "Fellows, back in the tent, and figure out another way," just like we did in Afghanistan with Karzai? Who's going to deliver that message?

. . . .

And I agree with Speaker Gingrich that we need to have Iraqis being along with American forces in Fallujah and other places. But, Newt, find me anybody who tells you you can train that force with any efficacy that's going to take place and be usable any time in less than the next three years.

So something's got to happen between now and then, buddy, or else we're going to end up with a civil war there. We're going to end up with worst of all worlds. We're going to end up with a civil war in Iraq if in fact we decide we can turn this over, including the bulk of the security, to the Iraqis between now and then.

We are playing a costly and dangerous game in Iraq. It's stupid to try to play it on the cheap. And, yet, here we are.

More troops, more money, NATO involvement. This is what it looks like, to lose Iraq. This is what it looks like for Bush to lose Iraq.

(Seems like Tacitus may be beginning to agree.)

UPDATE: Bird Dog suggests that al-Sadr may be an Iranian proxy. More reason to execute the arrest warrant for him, which has been sitting on someone's desk for the last month. (Inexplicably? Well, maybe this is the explication.) More reason to execute it swiftly.

Comments

[Bird Dog]

The June 30 deadline is a joke. Our first and foremost duty is to provide security to the Iraqi people.

Sadr and his brigades need the same level of force applied to them as Operation Vigilante. As for Sadr and Iranian connections, reminds of a post I recently wrote...

[sidereal]

How dare the coalition treat this like a law enforcement matter. Snarky political commercials deriding them should be put together post-haste.

[bob mcmanus]

Sadr is in a mosque, where I expect he will stay a while. Shades of Waco?

A deal between Chalabi and Sistani? Not really a clue as to the internal politics of Iraq. I don't think even Juan Cole has a clue.

Wolfie, Bremer, et al think they have a clue. They are wrong.

[Iron Lungfish]

Agree with you entirely on Sadr, von, except at this rate I'm not sure if we have a week. We need him now, or within a couple days at most, before he's built up enough momentum for his movement to outlast him.

As for how to grab him without killing him...

[Edward]

Apparently an Iraqi Judge is being used to do this...hope they get Sadr before he gets this judge...

On the surface this sounds like a good idea, but are they gonna whisk that judge away into the witness protection program or something afterward?

[Edward]

oops...should have read closer...

Mr. Senor did not fully explain why American and Iraqi authorities had not already tried to detain Mr. Sadr even though an Iraqi judge had issued an arrest warrant "within the last several months." While 12 suspects connected to the Khoei murder case were taken into custody during an initial round of arrests, the spokesman explained, Mr. Sadr was among another group of suspects that is now being pursued.

apparently the warrant's been out for some time...